As you may have noticed, I’m trying to redirect everyone who comments on Substack and Bluesky to the comment section on johanno1.se now. I don’t have time to respond everywhere, and when you finally go through all the comments, they are extremely good.
I really suggest that everyone starts writing on johanno1.se because it is read by many, like around five million a day, IT said on bad days. Above all, it is saved in a format for the historical archive that Bluesky and Substack will never be.
I will soon move on in the discussion, but there were some who missed the bigger picture yesterday. It’s important to have read all the posts and then be a bit ahead in thinking.
The reason why RU will attack into eastern Estonia/northern Latvia is because it is not a significant enough event to trigger a full retaliation from the EU, but it challenges NATO and EU cohesion, especially NATO.
If Russia tries to conquer the entire Baltic region, there will be war – now it will be small enough for Western countries to feel they can escape this by remaining passive, but if they escalate, it can get worse. The Russians are Olympic champions in this balancing act.
Yes, it could happen that if we don’t defend the Baltics at all and the Balts don’t mobilize, RU seizes the opportunity, but I think they are wary of large-scale campaigns after getting burned in Ukraine.
This time, tactical nuclear weapons are relevant; perhaps they detonate one smuggled in by ISIS terrorists or similar as a warning somewhere in Europe, and then all the Iskanders and bomber planes are loaded and aimed at cities in Western Europe, and the threats pour in.
“Yes, we admit that a nuclear weapon was stolen in June – my God, we have been searching, but now we know where it is, at least, thank you for confirming.”
If the EU deploys brigades in the Baltics, I don’t rule out tactical nuclear weapons according to Cold War doctrine, so the EU should be prepared for that and respond proportionately – this summer, it’s win or die for the Russian clan leader, and he will escalate the violence until it’s no longer possible because this is the only way they have met resistance for the past 300 years.
Through this attack on Europe, RU will cause a stock market crash, inflation, higher interest rates, and a recession in the EU. The subversive activities also include political deadlock and huge riots by leftists, rightists, and Islamists. More detailed in previous posts.
Poland will be confronted by the entire Belarusian defense force + North Koreans, and in both Belarus and Kaliningrad, there are Chinese Special Operations Forces companies, and China threatens war if even a finger is lifted. The border they must defend is almost as long as the Baltic states’ border…
I dare not predict Finland’s stance, but the last time they chose to cross the border into Russia, it didn’t go well. They will also be confronted by a large number of secondary RU forces along their very long land border.
In a few posts, I have suggested that maybe Trump is doing what’s best for the USA here and that his significant economic changes may not be so bad… for the USA. The same goes for foreign policy – as someone usually says, the USA is like the bank, not your friend, right?
There are some on johanno1.se who are starting to think along the lines that are not socially accepted in Swedish media yet, and there, one can and should have different opinions 😀
For example, until 1989, the USA and Russia had divided the world between them, and Europe lived under acute threat of war, thus completely pacified and had to buy everything at exorbitant prices from the USA as a favor. It was called the Cold War and was entirely manufactured.
Patton wanted to continue towards Russia directly in May 1945, but the West chose to give Eastern Europe to Stalin. This led to a Cold War until 1989.
We had the First World War, we had the Second World War, we had the Cold War, and now we are well on our way to at least one Cold War again.
Do you know who was the biggest loser in WW2?
Yes, it was the UK, their colonies were lost, and they made the final payment on war loans from the USA in 2006 or something.
Before this period, Europe colonized most of the known world – so maybe there is a hidden agenda to keep us in check?
It’s no secret that American banks financed Hitler’s buildup to the war, right?
I follow Sweden from a distance in the Caribbean, and Jens Nylander has revealed rampant corruption in state and municipal authorities, and then there are the frauds against the social insurance agency and all such authorities, not exactly secrets – there are countless official reports on the subject.
We have now reached the point where authorities report the abuse and demand repayment – but no one pays back, and no penalties are imposed because the police have more important matters to attend to. It’s a futile effort, so our authorities buy themselves impunity in this way.
Throughout the EU, we have significantly deteriorated society in an attempt to make everything better – the statistics speak for themselves. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, as the saying goes.
If Trump is trying to clean up the swamp – is it bad for the country USA and the majority society in the USA (those who foot the bill)?
(but is that really what he’s doing, no one knows yet?)
I’ve heard that he wants a 0% tax on incomes up to $150,000/year – that’s at the top of my list for tax cuts in Sweden, but maybe not that amount, let’s say the first 300,000 SEK/year. It would make the biggest difference for low-income earners.
Then he’s trying to bring manufacturing back to the USA, which is also something countries in the EU are desperately considering now that everything ended up in China.
Yes, he needed this majority to be able to implement this.
Yes, there is a looming risk that he just wants to establish a new oligarch group at the trough, where he himself is included.
But to stay there longer than a few years, maybe the plan is to pick low-hanging fruits that make it better for the majority society at the expense of the EU and Ukraine – who knows?
What I have already decided, though, is that Trump is not in any way doing what is best for the EU and Ukraine – it’s clear and needs no further discussion.
Regarding peace negotiations, Zelensky has been clear in several posts now that they are forced into this but that he wants to show Trump that they want peace.
After Zelensky received a scolding for being ungrateful and not wearing a suit, Putin countered by demanding that Kellogg not participate in the negotiations because he “was too pro-Ukraine,” and Trump fired Kellogg immediately.
-the lack of equal treatment is evident.
Now remember what I’ve said before here – Putin doesn’t want a 30-day ceasefire, he wants a long-term ceasefire so he can move on to the Baltics.
Trump, who has accused Zelensky of all the world’s troubles and tried to remove him, and when that didn’t work – talk him down in front of the Ukrainian citizens.
But when Putin didn’t want a 30-day ceasefire and started to complicate things in the usual Russian way so I don’t even dare to guess what is interesting – then Trump says that Putin is doing a great job and that everything is on track.
“teacher’s pet” is a term in school which is probably the teacher’s favorite or something?
“US president Donald Trump has just revealed that the US had a “very good and productive” discussion with Russian president Vladimir Putin, claiming “there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end.”
Kursk is so incredibly bad by Trump – he has no respect for what he should 😡
Read his statements and get furious – after ordering Ukraine to leave Kursk, he now goes out and says that he asked Putin to spare the surrounded soldiers because Putin was about to win. Terribly bad.
You know what I thought about Kursk, and it’s true just wait for confirmation in the future and remember where you heard it first (after the OSINT and established media).
When it comes to peace negotiations, they are completely 100% rigged and Putin will get away with everything, and no matter what Zelensky does, he will get sh*t for it.
You haven’t heard anything from the EU meeting with 30 world leaders, they met this week.
Zelensky is now trying to strike back against Putin and accuse him of not wanting peace, sabotaging the negotiations, and so on.
Guess if Trump in 1, 2, 3… will start accusing Zelensky of sabotaging the peace negotiations, again?
But Trump has already caused irreparable damage, once again the USA has pulled the rug out from under Ukraine when things started going well.
Kursk is lost and RU is now starting to infiltrate in several places along the northern front.
Perhaps Ukraine has lost the momentum they started to build up here – too early to say.
Russia has regained hope at least.
EU must now stop with the whole “we must preserve the relationship with the USA” and tiptoe around this. There is no relationship with the USA to preserve – we are like abused in a family relationship that keeps us away when the partner drinks (and we drank yesterday, have you recovered yet?).
-Ukraine’s cause is ours – that is CRYSTAL CLEAR.
-The USA is trying to break the EU and make us a vassal state again now that we managed to leave in 1989.
-The USA is probably trying to maintain Russia (we KNOW that after Sullivan, Rubio, and Biden said it, and Trump acts that way)
-The USA is probably trying to have a strong Russia against China.
The best thing for the EU would be if Russia collapsed and turned inward for 20 years or so, 300 years of threat gone overnight.
It would also be best for Ukraine.
Belarus falls and becomes part of the EU, Kaliningrad falls or becomes demilitarized.
The USA will actively work against all of this, and they don’t care about any problems we in the EU will face because of it.
If the EU can just accept the above sentence, we can now start doing what is right.
Otherwise, it will explode by September at the latest.
This is what I want to see –
Norway, Denmark, and Sweden deploy all types of aircraft, robots, artillery, armored vehicles, and ranger units to Finland.
The entire EU moves about 30 brigades into the Baltics with advanced aircraft, close air support, artillery, robots, etc.
Poland receives reinforcement of the capabilities they need, not so much ground troops.
This happens in April – May this year.
The EU issues a series of statements declaring that this is a permanent presence for the foreseeable future but that they do not in any way threaten Russia – very clear about that.
In the Baltic Sea, all countries + UK and the Netherlands form a permanent naval task force patrolling the Baltic Sea.
All ships in the shadow fleet are checked for maritime safety, and there is constant surveillance towards Kaliningrad with a continuous presence of submarines.
In parallel with this, they come out very clearly and demand that Ukraine should return to its 1991 borders leaning towards international law and the current world order.
They declare that they will continue to resource Ukraine indefinitely, that we have only just begun.
We proceed with the EU membership for UA.
We announce that IF Russian robot attacks on civilian targets continue, we will step by step introduce armored vehicles and then aircraft over western Ukraine – that “Shield” thing, whatever it’s called.
It’s time now – if we wait too long, this will slip away from us.
For those who don’t believe there are 30 brigades – do some googling.
If I’m completely honest – I don’t think we will see these actions from the EU actually, the EU will also be reactive in this escalation – if it happens.
So it’s time for the Swede to accept that we may be heading towards full-scale war and that our sons and daughters may die in the east. We have never been this close to full-scale war with Russia because this is the first time they intend to actually start it, the closest we came was probably when we got to Gotland first and they backed off, but this will happen if they have Ukraine under control.
Sitting with my work computer and can’t open the Twitter links I saved for posts, which is highly irritating.
My hope now lies in that there will NOT be a ceasefire and that Putin is too busy in Ukraine to be able to move on to the Baltics – but for that to happen, the EU needs to break ties with the USA and fully start supporting Ukraine.
Then we will bypass the whole issue with the EU, and the Baltics will have time to build their defensive lines along the border with Russia by 2026, and we will get another Gotland.
It’s a race to be first.
By the way, Russia is smoked – I was looking at what Germany, for example, produced during WW2 and in 1944, their production peaked (since they are the aggressor, I compared with them).
Russia’s production numbers are completely irrelevant – if we take tanks, they modify most things and it’s about 400 tanks per year from 2023 – 2024 of decent tanks.
The war has been going on for over three years, and Russia is in a war economy, but their weapons production is an absolute joke.
Since 2024, Ukraine has been allowed to strategically combat Russia’s war industry, which they are actively doing now, so surely the production for 2025 is lower.
Russia never planned for a long war, and they have absolutely not planned for a war post-depletion of their supplies.
Now their supplies are actually empty – what’s left of tanks are mostly T72 and T80 where the autoloader mechanisms have rusted. There is nothing of value left, sighting devices, etc., are gone.
We are probably at the point where trying to complete has the same cost as building new.
But…
If Russia gets a few years here and can buy machinery from China, they can refurbish again.
Or if they receive material from China.
Now, in 2025, they are finished, but it’s a dip that can be remedied with a ceasefire, for example.
If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,
If you want a fun comment section that is really starting to pick up and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky – johanno1.se.
The level of comments is high, I can promise you – you learn something new every day.
I recommend everyone still commenting on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you. I also don’t have time to respond there as I’m starting to get busy at work.
On Substack, you are very, very welcome to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Then there are the Swedish rescuers, the ones I have been in contact with who continue quietly and deliver material to Ukraine. You don’t see them constantly on social media because they instead work on supporting Ukraine.
Glömt inte att donera, Ukrainas sak är vår! Stöd Ukraina!
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