We wrote yesterday that 17 cut submarine cables was a significant escalation and that we will now see more – and indeed we did, Russia tested NATO through a massive drone attack on Poland intentionally.
The other day, Russia also placed a robot in Kiev’s government building and droned the English consulate in Kiev – a very significant escalation overall from Russia, and then they cautiously observe the reaction.
I have previously described how governments would be locked, governments fall, how demonstrations take over, personal attacks on prominent politicians, murders, gangs, right, left, Islamists, and sabotage – we are RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF IT NOW in Europe. Hundreds of arsonists who set fire to Europe’s forests have been arrested, and the worst sinners had started 60 fires each – do you need more than that.
Kier Starmer is the next man up for shaving I guess after Macron’s government fell – big demonstrations in the country to be expected maybe?
The only thing missing is all the power outages and direct sabotage in a twilight setting, and when they come then we are at war even if there may be a lot of creative explanations to try to avoid it for a while longer.
In the choice between war or shame, we have so far chosen shame – Churchill is spinning in his grave.
When (yes – when!) Russia in one way or another enters the Baltics, we are also at war and then we can no longer turn a blind eye – Omfall A maybe you remember as I was laughed at because Carsten Bauer and all other experts, military personnel, and specialists say that Russia is not ready before 2028 even though they know that I have written that Russia has a year before the door to the Baltics is closed – the level of arrogance is suffocating almost đĄ
I didn’t have time to include the drone attack in yesterday’s post but wrote some on Bluesky, johanno1.se, and Substack when it happened if you want to check out early analyses.
I have a lot to say about this –
1. this is not at all the first day of a full drone war against Poland or an invasion – it’s a test and Poland will not be invaded. However, Russia has the readiness to start running drone swarms westward if they think it benefits them.
2. The NATO shootdown rate was poor and Poland is lying, they claim they shot down the drones that posed a threat but the drones that made it furthest in from the Belarusian border were found crashed 370km or 500km in depending on who you believe. A drone with a presumed large warhead that travels 500km into Poland IS a threat wherever it is, it has then passed through settlements several times and also near airports and military installations as well as other high-value targets.
Poland reported 4 to 9 drones shot down and the total number was between 19 and 23. At most, a 20% to 47% shootdown rate which is far below what Ukraine is capable of, and then half of Europe’s top fighters were up and circling.
Consider here that Russia can launch 500 guided drones in one night if they want and that they manufactured 2700 last month, and intend to produce +70,000 per year.
Then they have +1000 robots in storage and a high pace of new production – are they even harder to shoot down?
3. I have come to believe that the drones did not have warheads and that they were programmed to fly until the fuel ran out. Highly significant because then Russia has tested Europe’s readiness against drone attacks and 370km-500km inside our border is quite an achievement by Russia, many pats on the back there after the mission.
We have not had 10 explosions of high-value targets – that’s what I base my assumption on.
4. The drone attack was planned and deliberate even though Russia will now deny it, Poland found Lithuanian and Polish SIM cards in the drones, and it is reported that the attack has been planned since July.
5. Europe’s reaction was Article 4 which is considered a low-effective response and buying pizza for the gangs. We should have – given Ukraine all frozen funds today, stopped the shadow fleet, established a no-fly zone over Ukraine, taken over the border with Belarus in Ukraine, sent brigades to the Baltics AND been clear that Ukraine can target any objectives they want in Russia with all Western weapons they have.
One at least, preferably all at once.
Now there is also the group “it’s best to lay low Europe is doing right” – no, the signal to Putin is to continue escalating and the above are all soft measures that are not an escalation unless you are a coward.
6. B52 is flying to Europe now – Europe is preparing for war in the near future even if our governments are trying to downplay it. All the DAMN analysts talking about 3-4 years can go fly a kite. Carsten Bauer for example and all other experts who have talked about 2028 when the only window for Russia to escalate is within a year from now.
The world should have listened to me and not Carsten Bauer who got to control the narrative, yes I have wondered if he is paid by the Russians đ
7. The US likely knew something would happen, Trump may have known since the Alaska meeting. Have we had any statement from him by the way other than “here we go” which is pretty easy to interpret really if you don’t have blinders on?
Pizza night at the Pentagon.
8. Ukraine avoided touching these drones, for them this is good – I support Ukraine and they did the right thing. They are also right to wait for Russian tourists to enter the Baltics in green in the forests.
Ukraine is holding back its offensive reserve and waiting for the Russian escalation towards Europe first, foolish to burn the powder before the fireworks.
So why did Russia carry out this massive drone attack on a NATO country (which they did not dare and could not, and which we would shoot down to 100% according to all experts).
1. they think they will get away with it.
2. they establish a new normal.
3. they test Europe’s LV capability.
4. they test if we will help the Baltics in case of a Russian invasion there.
5. they want to pressure Europe to get Ukraine to stop bombing their oil industry and fuel infrastructure.
6. Black swan for Europe’s financial markets.
7. to give NATO a wedgie for the whole world to see.
Do we feel formidable and strong over the embarrassing list above?
The only thing we can be completely sure of is that there will be more – I have actually warned about this for a while and mocked Carsten Bauer’s idiotic predictions about which year in the future Russia is a threat.
I have also warned that we cannot have the war of 2025 in Europe, and Poland could not shoot down 19 damn drones.
I have also described the chaos we are heading towards due to Russia’s subversive activities and now France’s government just fell, Palestinian demonstrators are becoming more aggressive, gangs are in full war, and sabotage is at a critical level all over Europe now. The Baltic Sea is boiling right now, Aunson has something every day.
You can then be sure that the power outages will come in autumn and winter as well as direct sabotage against our defense capabilities – violent fires and explosions.
The Baltic states will in one way or another be attempted to be entered by Russia, either through a full invasion or as a test of NATO. The exact timing is the big question, but to me, it is incomprehensible that Europe is taking a chance, I cannot understand it.
China will also begin its operations now.
There will be more wars in the world – Nepal was a bit surprising, they have disgruntled youth there who enjoy their screen time, one must admit.
I have previously launched two wild theories – one that the USA would be happy to see a recession in Europe so that capital returns to the USA, and that Russia will provide a black swan for Europe’s financial markets. The USA is a guess, the black swan is so likely that I consider it probable.
That we are returning to the Cold War and a Europe under the Russian boot that the USA can sell security to at double the market price.
So, Russia will not try to overrun the whole of Europe, just open a large wound and then engage in a numbingly subversive activity. Russia thrives in such an environment, China wants it, and probably the USA too, which would benefit greatly from it.
The stock market is overripe, so there will be something between today and the summer of 2026.
In 2008, it was said that the PIIGS died a soot death because China had learned to copy their level of industry and could produce the same quality cheaper. The prediction was that high technology was next, and I happened to know that Sweden was far ahead in that area and thought that we were next in line.
Northvolt was Chinese sabotage, but the management were idiots who did not understand China, they should have hired me.
Chinese solar panels and electric cars are where we are now, and advanced weapon platforms, evidently. China is likely far ahead in AI as well.
Swedish high-tech industry is thus in jeopardy this time around – Atlas Copco and ABB, for example.
I don’t know much about economics, but to me it looks like funds in the USA are buying government debt now, and the FED probably owned 30% themselves – the debt in the USA may not be a big deal even if China has a weapon to fire?
The USA will also get Europe to start buying if needed, it’s not very difficult to see that the UK has been forced to do so to get a trade deal, and the more scared we become of Russia, the more we will buy đ
However, long-term interest rates in the USA are on the rise, and many other indicators are pointing downwards.
But that goes for us in Europe too, pointing downwards.
Warren Buffet is maximally liquid, which usually is an indication, and insider selling of stocks and shorting of stock exchanges are at their highest levels in a long time.
But then the big players are also selling off in Bitcoin – why, I would like to understand because I thought Bitcoin was a refuge when everything else got turbulent?
Where will the money seek refuge in times of increased unrest this time – it usually goes to USD, secure government bonds, gold, and anything money can be parked in as long as it doesn’t drop less than a crashed stock market.
I guess the UK is no longer a safe haven?
The EU area will soon have a couple of insolvent countries, so EUR neither?
That leaves USD and their government bonds – this is the sequence of events I have imagined, and it would be fun if those of you who understand economics comment in the channel where you are reading.
So…
If you have read my previous posts, my thought has been that the USA will take a hit to get the ball rolling and then others will be hit harder and “end up with the short end of the stick.”
Europe is far from doing well right now, high unemployment, inflation, political turmoil, high crime rates, and a great need for welfare after previous high migration where Sandviken apparently didn’t match?
In Sweden, for example, the Social Democrats have announced that they will raise taxes if they win the election, which will certainly not benefit our export market as companies will have to try to sell their products even more expensively in a razor-sharp competitive market. That’s where we’ll be next fall, and financial markets tend to be quick to mete out their punishments.
Populist parties are on the rise in half of Europe, and they rarely prioritize budget balance as their first election promise.
In addition, China is putting pressure on Europe’s high-tech industry – the German automotive industry is under a lot of strain, and it has been a flagship of high technology in Europe.
I guess our industrial robots are older and more expensive than Chinese ones now, so ABB and Atlas Copco might start to fall behind?
We have barely begun with AI, and it seems that the EU is mostly good at overregulating and prohibiting.
If Russia wants, they can launch their “lights out operation” this winter – we issued 400,000 visas in 2024 to Russians, and they have already been busy buying services from gangs all over Europe, and others.
Without declaring full-scale war, they can darken Europe and get away with it, I personally believe that we are prepared in time now, but we will see.
“the gangs and criminal clans are threats to the system” I have written a few times, and soon you will understand why.
In addition, a provocation just during full-scale war from Russia in the Baltic Sea or the Baltic states would function as a black swan for Europe, I guess?
The southeast corner in Estonia, for example đ§
Then China can increase the pressure further by cutting off more of the raw materials we need for our manufacturing, Houthis can disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, more underwater cables can be cut, and then more wars in all possible places in the world.
One part of the global escalation that is now underway is definitely to try to economically bring down Europe.
In our family, we have too many children to be able to invest in something like all the rest of you do, but a good indicator that things are about to collapse is when Johan No.1 starts talking about stocks and considers opening an account on Avanza – then it’s close đ
I am pondering if it could happen as early as this fall because historically autumns have been significant crashes?
Anyway – Europe already has sky-high electricity prices, which are hitting manufacturing and making us unattractive.
The only way forward as I see it is to start stopping Chinese products, restart electricity production, team up with Africa, and slowly work our way back, but it seems crystal clear that we will have some bad years no matter what we do.
So – maybe it’s time to prepare for power outages, crisis interest rates (up or down?), higher unemployment, and doomsday prophets on TV again?
Of course, this will affect our willingness to support Ukraine and also make us more compliant with the USA.
The Green Party has stated that they will oppose all new nuclear power, which includes the genius move with SMR, which is not only worrying but dangerous since more and more wind power companies are starting to go bankrupt, and wind turbines have a lifespan of 15-20 years. We should have started to address this with SMR several years ago.
Unfortunately, all new electricity production in the next 10 years is essentially renewable solar and wind â nuclear power has a long lead time. I’m reading about renewable hydrogen but don’t know if it can bridge the gap?
Here, there is a looming risk that we will end up like Germany â the electricity price caused their heavy industry to collapse within a couple of years, with the exception of the arms industry, which can cost whatever it wants.
For our part in Sweden, the economic outlook doesn’t look bright is my interpretation of the overall situation.
On Substack â there is still a chance to become subscribers and for me it is valuable if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s so it’s also healthy â Johan No.1 will make you healthier too đ
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The War in Ukraine – Russian losses 2025-09-11
SLAVA UKRAINI
An increase in the number of Russian attacks in the northern front section of S Slobozhansky during the last 24 hours according to the morning report from the Ukrainian military general staff, with the third highest record since the beginning of May this year.
Lyman woke up after a week of stagnation.
Continued high numbers from Siviersk
as well as from the Donetsk fronts Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.
In total 205 Russian attacks, indicating an intense phase in the Russian warfare.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 7
S Slobozhansky 16đ„âïž
Kupyansk 4
Lyman 27đ„đ„âïž
Siverskyi 20đ„
Kramatorsk 7
Toretsk 16đ„
Pokrovsk 57đ„đ„đ„
Novopavlivka 31đ„đ„âïž
Huliaypillia 1
Orikhivsk 2
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2
August looked a bit calmer but now it has picked up again. They probably have a month, or maybe two, before the weather becomes a problem.
At the same time, the weather doesn’t seem to matter as much anymore.
In 2023, they started in the second week of October and kept up the pace until the end of December, then it was just a bit calm in January before the intensity increased again.
Yes, the question is whether the weather/seasons are becoming less decisive? With drone warfare, armored battles have more or less ceased. And it is primarily armor that is weather/season-dependent, right? Wading through mud is a minor obstacle.
âïž While the whole world is discussing the raid of Russian UAVs on Poland, Ukrainian manufacturers continue to expand the range of domestic drones to eliminate these very Russians
âïž Ukrainian heavy bomber drones “ARES A1” are showing their capabilities. They can carry up to 18 kg of payload, fly at speeds of up to 62 km/h for distances of up to 30 km, and stay airborne for up to 48 minutes.
đ„ The video footage shows a selection of spectacular strikes on Muscovite dugouts, shelters, and equipment using these UAVs. The development of Ukrainian drones continues unabated, and it is gratifying to observe this progress. Western partners should still pay attention and listen to offers of assistance in the production and application of Ukrainian military-industrial complex products.
đ„https://t.me/DeepStateUA/22451
đȘ Soldiers from the UAV unit of the 3rd Battalion of the 101st Brigade of the General Staff showed footage of their work against the Russians in Chasiv Yar.
đ·đș The enemy continues to try to advance in the town of Chasiv Yar, particularly in the Novopivnichny microdistrict, which they have been unable to take control of. Chasiv Yar is one of the routes to Kostiantynivka, which the enemy has set as its target for occupation, but the Defense Forces are nullifying the enemy’s attempts.
đ The footage also shows the nature of combat operations in this area, as well as in many others, where enemy infantry, in groups of several or even alone, hide in plantations, bushes, or ruins to gather strength, sneak up on the positions of Ukrainian fighters, and gain a foothold in the area. Pilots have to work hard to spot the Russians, but when they do, the lives of these Moscow bastards come to an end.
đ„https://t.me/DeepStateUA/22448
Since the USA is not prepared for warfare in 2025, and only has fat cat weapons so to speak, I hope that instead it will be Ukraine that becomes rich by selling security to Europe. It can start even if the war is not over, either through overproduction in certain types of weapons or by establishing factories in Europe, or just selling the IPs that were discussed the other day. In fact, it would be the easiest way to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction without them having to sell themselves out.
A new post by JohanNo1 – what’s up with that? Here we go!
“Now there is also the group ”it is best to lie low Europe does right” â no the signal to Putin is to continue to escalate and above are all soft measures that are not an escalation unless you are a coward.”
Agreed, none of the measures – no-fly zone, NATO troops along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, or brigades into the Baltics – are escalation, just as fencing in the sheep pasture in Sörmland would not be the same as eradicating the wolf. Yet the wolf huggers scream when the farmer puts up wolf fences – at least if one makes an allegory with Russia’s attack war in Ukraine.
“Chinese solar cells and electric cars are where we are now, and advanced weapon platforms, evidently. China is certainly far ahead in AI as well.
Swedish high-tech industry is thus in the danger zone this time – Atlas Copco and ABB for example.”
In the danger zone, if China (and North Korea) act, not only Taiwan is at risk but also both South Korea and Japan. South Korea with its telecom industry and Japan with its high-tech industry.
Therefore, it is important that Europe does not weaken. Trump should realize that he needs Europe (and Ukraine) in the Pacific. Not shoot himself in the foot and make China even stronger.
China’s window is connected to Russia’s. If Europe emerges stronger from the situation, we (and Ukraine, which has received support from South Korea and Japan) will be a factor to be reckoned with in the Pacific as a counterbalance to Chinese aggression.
âđđ
“Ukrainian military intelligence announced that its special forces struck and disabled a Russian Black Sea Fleet vessel near Novorossiysk.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lyk7daijt52i
https://united24media.com/latest-news/one-of-only-four-ukraine-sinks-60m-russian-support-vessel-in-black-sea-raid-11558
From about 40-50 billion per year under Biden to 400 million, better than nothing at all anyway.
“US House of Representatives approves the defense budget for 2026, allocates $400 mln for Ukraine #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lyk7agjfku2f
“âĄïž US House passes $890 billion defense bill, includes $400 million for Ukraine aid. While the Ukraine provision faced pushback, a proposal by Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene to eliminate aid was rejected with bipartisan opposition.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lyk76qwxes2p
https://kyivindependent.com/us-house-passes-defense-bill-includes-400-million-for-ukraine-aid/
Apparently, there was a significant majority that voted in favor. Hopefully Trump takes note of those numbers.
I don’t know, maybe it has to go through the Senate as well before it’s final?
“Rep. Don Bacon: The House has overwhelmingly backed continued military aid for Ukraine with a 372-60 vote.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lykddmhlzc2g
It might have been so simple that this was exactly what Russia was after.
Instead of sending LV to Ukraine, it will now go to Poland and countries with Russia as a neighbor.
Ukraine has boosted its defense industry, but as we have seen, there are plenty of pro-Russian sympathizers and spies in Ukraine who can help reveal their location.
Ukraine needs all the LV they can get to protect both factories and energy supply.
“đ”đ± Poland has requested additional air defense systems and counter-drone technology from NATO allies, – Bloomberg đ«đźđșđž The US approved a possible $1.07 billion sale of up to 405 AIM-120D-3 air-to-air missiles and related equipment to Finland.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyk632tdws2t
Ajfan you are right. It is, so to speak, the smallest advantage they get out of it even if they do not proceed according to Johan’s fears.
Once again it shows how important it is not to do as they want but to immediately introduce some kind of “punishment” for training purposes.
“When you put all of the missile and drone strikes and crashes since 2022 west of Ukraine on a map, it becomes eye-opening. Almost 50 known incidents (and we’re still backfilling)”
https://bsky.app/profile/malcontentnews.bsky.social/post/3lyk4vb3eqc27
“âïžDuring the night, đșđŠUkrainian military shot down 62/66 đ·đșRussian UAVs”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyk3us2dyc2d
Reposting this from LAST NIGHT:
Sweden urgently sends additional aircraft and air defense equipment to Poland, — Polish Defense Minister
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyiv4wtf522r
HIMARS strike on Donetsk, at least 6 hits!
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyj2sc37ls2r
“A Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter intercepted and downed a Russian Shahed drone.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lykdxvvz4s2g
If Russia’s intention with drones over Poland is to divert Western support there and shift focus away from Ukraine, it might backfire. What if this escalation leads the West to finally take off the gloves and get involved in the game.
Yes, Poland is after all a neighbor to Russia and has the closest proximity to Ukraine if it becomes necessary to intervene there.
Off-Topic, Charlie Kirk
As many of you have probably already read, Charlie Kirk was shot yesterday during a public appearance.
The question is what this will lead to and who was behind it.
Trump has already sent the National Guard to Washington and is threatening to send it to Chicago and several other cities. This will probably result in reduced resistance and allow him to use even more heavy-handed tactics.
He has already spoken out, blaming “crazy Democrats” of course, and has listed all Republicans who have been shot but naturally omits Democrats who have experienced the same. Kirk will likely become a martyr and Democrats will probably be collectively blamed. This will further divide the USA.
Now it is claimed that the event where he appeared had low security, which may be why they did not manage to catch the shooter (yet, at least), but the person must be quite skilled since they were at a considerable distance considering the large audience.
The question is who shot him (or on whose behalf). It could of course be a madman who had enough, it happens now and then. If it had been a deranged Democrat, the person could hardly have thought it through since this harms Democrats rather than strengthens them.
Both China and Russia benefit from a USA in internal chaos, it is not impossible that one of them is behind it. They will of course mainly incite all the youths Kirk was addressing. He mostly spoke to university students. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the left and all the Palestine supporters. This could be the starting point for serious conflicts.
One cannot help but wonder if he might have been used as a sacrificial pawn. Even then, they will work hard on propaganda to give Trump even more power and free rein to “purge all dangerous elements threatening the USA.”
He could then call in even more military personnel to facilitate taking control of democratic cities and states.
A little about Charlie Kirk
He was a conservative Christian activist and media personality who, among other things, founded Turning Point USA and also Turning Point Action, the latter focusing on political advocacy and election campaigns.
He has been called an evangelist for MAGA and wholeheartedly supported Donald Trump.
He was also passionate about capitalism, reduced state intervention, and freedom of speech.
He was against immigration, abortions, etc., and is of course anti-woke in every way (strongly against LGBTQ, for example).
He has also made many almost racist statements regarding immigration, where he has been condescending or negative towards everything from Indians and Muslims to Jews and Latinos.
He has said that black people were better off as slaves in the 40s, etc.
He was also a strong advocate for the right to bear arms and against all forms of restrictions, believing that people being shot to death was a price that had to be paid, with a couple of quotes:
”I think it’s worth to have a cost of, unfortunately, some gun deaths every single year so that we can have the Second Amendment to protect our other God-given rights.”
”You will never live in a society when you have an armed citizenry and you won’t have a single gun death … But I think it’s worth it.”
Another quote:
“I can’t stand the word empathy, actually. I think empathy is a made-up, new-age term that … it does a lot of damage.”
The cynical could say that he got what he wanted and that no one should feel empathy for his death.
I am not that cynical, it is terrible when people are murdered, and even worse when they are killed because of their political views (whether I agree with them or not).
“World leaders react: ”Threat to democracy”
The murder of the American right-wing debater and podcast personality Charlie Kirk has prompted several leaders around the world to react, reports AFP.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney writes on X that he is appalled.
”There is no justification for political violence and every such act threatens democracy.”
Britain’s Keir Starmer emphasizes the importance of having an open and free debate. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni calls the murder a ”deep wound for democracy”.
Even Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has written on X:
”I spoke with [Kirk] just two weeks ago and invited him to Israel. Unfortunately, that visit will not take place.””
https://omni.se/varldsledare-reagerar-pa-mordet-hot-mot-demokratin/a/rPoGnl
“Martyr for truth.’ Trump vows vengeance against ‘radical Left’ for Charlie Kirk killing”
“Calling assassinated conservative influencer Charlie Kirk “a martyr for truth and freedom,” President Donald Trump on Sept. 10 attacked the “radical Left” and said its heated rhetoric was “directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today.”
“It’s long past time for all Americans and the media to confront the fact that violence and murder are the tragic consequence of demonizing those with whom you disagree day after day, year after year, in the most hateful and despicable way possible,” Trump said.
But, he said, “For years, those on the radical Left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s worst mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today, and it must stop right now.”
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/10/trump-vows-vengeance-against-radical-left-for-charlie-kirk-slaying/86085895007/
Trump:
“Charlie Kirk’s death is the result of the international hate campaign waged by the progressive-liberal left.
This is what led to the attacks on [Slovak prime minister] Robert Fico, on [Czech former premier] Andrej BabiĆĄ, and now on Charlie Kirk. We must stop the hatred! We must stop the hate-mongering left!”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/sep/11/charlie-kirk-shot-latest-news-updates-utah-university-donald-trump
180 meters was shorter than I would have guessed from the movies, no professional marksman is required to manage it.
“In video clips spreading from the shooting in Utah, where right-wing activist Charlie Kirk was killed, a dark figure can be seen moving on a roof. Now there is speculation that it is the shooter caught on film, writes the New York Post and SVT News.
…
According to information from the university where the murder took place, Kirk was shot at a distance of around 180 meters. The police have not yet arrested anyone, but an intense hunt for a suspect is ongoing. According to the local police, they are looking for a marksman.”
https://omni.se/morkkladd-figur-pa-tak-skytt-kan-ha-fangats-pa-film/a/qPj7bg
Farmer sacrifice is well expressed! Definitely, felt even less for #fcktrmp than to smear his own unharmed ear with a little red!
It doesn’t have to be the case that Trump or any of his closest supporters are behind it, it could be some lunatic (or lunatics) who thought it would be a good idea.
But it’s probably most likely that it’s some nutjob who believed that Charlie Kirk had to go.
Russia?
16 dead local politicians in Germany in the past month/months
13:00 the press conference starts today:
“On Thursday, September 11, the government and the Sweden Democrats will hold a press conference where news about support for Ukraine will be presented.”
https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2025/09/inbjudan-till-presstraff-om-stod-till-ukraina/
“âïžUkrainian Company “Ukrainian Armor” has supplied the Ukrainian đșđŠDefense Forces with over 1,000 Novator armored vehicles since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lykh2t3kt22b
“It is stated that the price of the interceptor drone is ~10% of the price of the “Shahed”. The price of one “Shahed” is not known for sure, but it could be around $30,000, given the localization of production by Russia.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-ukraine-tech-sharing-agreement-to-deliver-drones-and-support-jobs
“Russia copying Kyiv’s drone technology as ‘direct technological race’ accelerates, Ukraine army chief says”
I think we should be cautious about stating that the drone attack on Poland is a clear advantage for Ukraine. I think Paul Warburg has a pretty good take on the whole situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAqHnMXLUno
đ
I agree with him, I also believe that it may have been the main goal of the drones. Especially LV as I mention here: https://johanno1.se/sv/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-11-september-2025/#comment-48578
Appearing strong when you are weak also fits well, I think.
Furthermore, since NATO will not respond with any aggression, Russia will appear strong both internally and externally. It also strengthens their narrative that Russia cannot be defeated (not even NATO dares to do anything) so it’s better for Ukraine to give up..
Therefore, I think we should respond with something (and not keep the equipment for ourselves). That way, we both debunk their propaganda and increase support for Ukraine.
A mediocre escalation with drones towards Poland. Did they carry warheads? Or were they all decoys? That question doesn’t seem to be able to get an answer. Did they want to provoke Poland to do something rash? Russia is stuck on the ground but has its drones and robots that they can use. Will the next drone attack be a real one towards Vilnius in Lithuania? Just harmless enough to claim it was a mistake. Yes, Russia is testing but not from a position of strength. More out of desperation that the war goals have not been achieved.
They were decoys.
Had an extra fuel tank where the warhead should have been placed.
The Russians are testing, and waiting for us to strike back somewhat half-heartedly, so they have to put on the victim card and complain about us bombing them just because some harmless drones fly off course due to Ukraine’s disruptions.
By the way, it’s interesting that he means the bases they set up near Finland, etc. are just empty shells without content, as a way to build up the threat.
DeepStateMap, both Ukraine and Russia are advancing.
“The Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the enemy near Volodymyrivka and Shakhove. The enemy advanced in Serebryanske forestry, near Poltavka and Pankivka.”
Wondering if it’s real or Potemkin facades?
“A secret military base the size of 280 football fields is being built in Belarus. Construction near Pavlovka, south of Minsk, began in June 2024 and is now in an active phase, according to the âSchemesâ project (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).
The facility occupies the former Soviet camp No. 25 âPavlovka,â which housed the Slutsk 306th Strategic Missile Regiment with R-12, âPioneer,â and âTopolâ systems. After Belarus joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1993, part of the regiment was disbanded and the base abandoned.
Satellite images show the site covers over 2 kmÂČ. Over 1 kmÂČ of forest has been cleared, 13 ammunition warehouses and three 100-meter hangars built, foundations for other buildings connected by paved roads. New foundations are visible in the north; in the east, a 150-meter building frame and embankments.
Belarusian authorities do not acknowledge the construction. Polish expert Konrad Muzyka suggested the base could store the Russian âOreshnikâ ballistic missile system.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lykjhi737226
Germany is permanently moving a brigade to Lithuania.
NATO is taking measures to strengthen the eastern flank in Europe. This is stated by General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO Chief of the Allied Forces in Europe, at a press conference in Vilnius, as reported by Reuters.
đ„âïžđ©đȘđ
Press conference: Strengthened economic framework totaling 40 billion per year in 2026-27 and civilian aid of 10 billion per year during 2026-2027 and at least 10.5 billion in 2028
—
The third package in 2025 amounts to 9.2 billion (in total, we are up to 90 billion since the war in Ukraine started).
What is being delivered “responds to Ukraine’s most prioritized needs”.
Focus on procurement of equipment. Approximately 75% will be delivered in 2025-26 and most will come from Swedish industry.
—
3.6 billion, land
Artillery and long-range capabilities, etc.
18 newly manufactured Archers (Ukraine has a total of 44). Cooperation with other countries will also take place to procure even more. Ammunition and gun barrels, as well as other items required for maintenance, are included.
—
2.1 billion, naval material:
Mobile coastal radar system and terrain vehicles.
Supply ferries with grenade launchers.
Enhanced capability for the 32 previously donated combat boats.
Crane trucks and diving chambers
2 unmanned systems “in the maritime domain”
—
3.5 billion, air defense and space
Ammunition, sensors, and management systems for previously delivered Tridon.
Financial contribution for the procurement of air defense through multilateral cooperation
Active and passive sensors for detecting drones and robots.
Tractors, trucks, and snow blowers for airport operations
“Strengthened Ukrainian capability in space”??
Exactly, more support to the Armed Forces instead of storing them at home. Don’t fall for the Russians’ attempts to scare us with drones in Poland.
đ
40 billion per year is really good (a significant increase from 25 as was previously stated), and it’s good that they are thinking ahead and already talking about 2027.
The package also looks good to me (even though one gets disappointed every time it’s not Gripen đ)
18 Archer (+ ammunition) is really good and will be useful, and I also think that increased capability in terms of radar and sensors is not a bad idea either.
Of course, things like cranes, tractors, and snow blowers may not be as exciting, but it’s better that they get that from us rather than having to procure it themselves, so they can invest more money in their own industry.
It feels good that Sweden continues to support Ukraine and even increases it!
Well-invested crowns!
– Swedish jobs
– Direct feedback on capability in the 2025 conflict
– Likely matches Ukraine’s needs
– Strikes directly against Russia
The presentation from the press conference as a PDF:
https://www.regeringen.se/contentassets/eeac4dea9ca2480faa521af9fd073a9b/presentationsbilder-fran-presstraffen-den-11-september-om-ukrainastod.pdf
Wow, what a support package đ„đ„đ„
Come on Sweden! đ
The American envoy John Coale has told Belarus dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko that the USA wants to reopen its embassy in Minsk. Reuters reports this with reference to the Belarus state news agency Belta.
The USA is also said to want to normalize relations with Belarus, which is a close ally of Russia.
The USA closed the embassy in Minsk in February 2022 after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
China, Russia, and the USA all want Belarus as a partner.
Belarus has released 52 prisoners of various nationalities after negotiations with a US-led delegation, the American embassy in Vilnius reports. Reuters reports.
The release follows a call from President Donald Trump to dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
This is the largest group of prisoners released by Lukashenko so far, but far from the 1,300-1,400 prisoners that Trump has demanded to be released.
The released individuals are said to come from, among others, Lithuania, Poland, France, and Germany.
Wow, they have prisoners from France and Germany.
Has this ever been discussed before?
đ„ In the Donetsk region, there are new strikes at various locations where Russian troops are stationed.
The following text has been translated from Swedish to English:
All the time this type of news. Ukraine is targeting high-value targets remotely after receiving good intelligence for target selection.
I wonder if the USA still provides them with the goal outputs or if they have developed their own information gathering?
ATESH is in Russia and Ukraine probably bought their own spy satellite a few years ago.
đșđŠđȘđș Ukraine proposes joint production of interceptor drones with European states, â Zelensky. “This must be done as quickly as possible so that bureaucratic processes do not stand in the way. No country in the world has enough missiles to shoot down every type of drone.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lykrb4aouk2x
Hope they get good deals on this now đ
One should check which Ukrainian weapon production companies one can buy stocks in đ
NAFO fellows,
Now one had to watch the video first đ
Europe and the USA have already been scared into strengthening their national defense before this attack instead of sending everything to Ukraine – we have discussed this enormously over the years and it seems that Warburg is not aware of it but believes that it is happening now for the first time?
Poland should be ashamed when they now demand more air defense systems from all of Europe, I don’t think Poland is playing with Russia at all so they are just idiots. What they should do is contribute to the air defense umbrella over western Ukraine, zero escalation and no problems at all to implement after this.
It’s like the rest of the robots and drones over Ukraine the same night didn’t exist, a very strange reaction from Poland which is also worrying because Poland has already excluded troops in Ukraine before this operation.
I don’t know exactly which countries participated but some AWACS were shot down from the Baltics and planes from a couple of different countries.
The drones were shot down with very expensive missiles and Ukraine has offered to help Poland with air defense in the future.
Ukraine has also proposed a no-fly zone in western Ukraine to protect Poland.
– first of all, Europe’s preparedness against Geran has been scrutinized and it was poor, yes some company in the UK has interceptor drones and Ukraine now has them too so in a year or so there will probably be protection against Geran in place. The constant whack-a-mole.
If Russia were to release 500 Geran drones sharp per night a few times a week, Europe’s ability to handle it is probably minimal – after a week we would run out of missiles.
—
In Ukraine, RU continues with +4000 FAB per month and 4500 FPV drones per day, as well as artillery, and they are the ones attacking. Yes, we have a slight positive bias that as soon as UA launches a counterattack, we magnify it, but the trend is backwards.
Just as UA sends strategic drones into Russia, RU does the same over Ukraine and fewer are shot down, we were probably up to 90%-95% at one point and now down to 15% less or something?
And there are probably fewer missiles being shot down too?
RU has good target acquisition and accuracy as well, it’s not just Ukraine hitting where it hurts.
—
We are +3 years into this war and Europe’s strategy until this summer has been to slow down Ukraine if they were doing too well. The USA has been the driving force and we have complied.
Yes, now since this summer, Ukraine can fight asymmetrically but surely not everything they want and the USA is against it.
But Europe needs the resources from China to build our new weapons and we need stability in our democracies and not a financial crash – all of this is what Russia is working towards and China is stopping key components and important resources.
Europe doesn’t have the time.
—
Yes, there are different ideas on how to achieve peace in our time, I think we should stop being cowards and restore wetlands throughout Russia, mine the border again, and lean back and watch their version of hunger games.
The best way to get there is for us to have some kind of Pearl Harbor so we need more of this.
—
Today, I am doubtful whether Europe intends to protect a piece of nature reserve in eastern Estonia or not, or if it will be the same discussion as now.
There will be many explanations as to why it is good to be restrained, but when we do not follow mission descriptions on how to act in the event of a threat, Russia takes it as an opportunity to continue.
—
Russia’s strength is not military power, it is their subversive activities and influence operations.
As you can see, just like me, how the USA is no longer at the forefront and shouting about a carpet of nuclear weapons over Russia – a group at GRU received a lot of champagne and medals for that.
Poland is exactly that – put it under conflict and eastern Estonia will be exactly the same.
Czechia has a pro-Russian candidate in October possibly, Spain is pro-China, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova will fall sometime. The whole Balkans is in danger.
If we don’t get fired, Europe will not become stronger, we will become weaker.
—
Russia will not stop until the Russian puppet collapses. I don’t know Europe’s position on that after this summer, but the USA still absolutely does not want it.
The country needs to have a violent internal power struggle and about ten new countries will be formed.
Belarus must orient itself towards Europe and mine the border with Russia again, and Kaliningrad must be demilitarized or fall.
THEN we will have peace in our time and I believe the fastest way to get there is more of this.
—
Of course, Ukraine made it easier by not shooting down the drones flying over the Kiev area towards Poland – if they had thought like Warburg that it was bad, they would have shot them down, right?
The whole operation against Poland got to fly there undisturbed.
They probably can’t reach them from inside Belarus.
I think it’s the right approach and also that they offer Poland help with air defense and should have drone programs with the Baltics.
The proposals for a no-fly zone over western Ukraine are also the right suggestions from Zelensky.
Ukraine is doing everything right.
“đ„ Zaporizhzhia region, attack on Russian column.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lykurrc4cc2k
An addition to the above NAFOfella, if we continue on your, or Warburg’s line, that the drone attack on Poland was a negative and the result Russia wanted to achieve – that Poland starts screaming that all equipment must be sent to them instead of Ukraine.
In terms of escalation, what is worse –
-19-23 drones straight into Poland at least 370km deep.
-A violent rebel movement in eastern Balticum and whispers of little green men in nature reserves?
If now Poland achieves the result of shifting focus and hardware away from Ukraine, what would it not do if masses of Estonian revolutionaries were running around and blowing things up in Balticum, and some city declared itself independent?
Then suddenly Europe has a whole Balticum screaming for weapons, brigades, LV, and all that too.
Which can then be taken from Ukraine?
Or if Moldova falls?
Then we must start sending equipment to Romania as well.
—
I don’t really know what has happened in Poland other than an anti-EU president that the Poles themselves tell me is not pro-Russian in comments to my posts.
At the beginning of the war, they were hard to stop and they sent a lot of MIG29 in small parts to get around the USA, and they have armed themselves to the teeth and are among the largest contributors to Ukraine.
Now instead, they were among the first to exclude troops in Ukraine, and now they want all of Europe to protect them after 19 puny drones – the latter is just ridiculous as Poland is not next in line and they know that very well.
Has Poland shifted politically?
We have warned that over time the risk is very real, but one might think that Poland is not the country that should shift at all.
Do they see an opportunity to have a Ukraine that is not too strong, historically the two countries are not friends, are they playing a game within the game?
—
A drone attack into Poland was not on my bingo card for the simple reason that NATO exists and that Poland was barely stoppable at the beginning of the war – has Russia seen something we haven’t seen?
The Russian analysis group before the attack has thoroughly discussed a question – “if we drone Poland, will they then voluntarily send in their forces to Ukraine yes or no.”
One consequence could have been that Poland voluntarily promised an expanded no-fly zone inside Ukraine, for example, and refer to direct self-defense?
And the analysis group came to the right conclusion.
A large drone attack into Balticum would have been more logical to me to test the waters a bit.
On the subject of Balticum, it’s a bit quiet there, Sun Tsu and all that đ§
—
After this attack, I guess the Russian analysis group presented its conclusion that the likelihood of Europe sending soldiers to Ukraine is very low.
There we may have another reason for the test – how will Europe react to our upcoming escalation in Ukraine with the attack vectors Belarus and Transnistria?
They got the answer now – we will not do anything.
Even if we were to change our minds later, RU is acting on this information.
Poland was indeed a good test shot to start with when it comes to drones?
There they can get away with it being a mistake or blame interference from Ukraine, even though everyone involved knows they are lying, there are probably many who fall for it or at the very least don’t really know what to believe.
Tomorrow Zapad starts and during that exercise, it might end up with even Latvia and Lithuania getting a visit. It was just an exercise, easy to make mistakes…
If the purpose is to make Europe lose focus on Ukraine and send resources to the wrong countries, it would be a natural continuation, especially now that they have seen that nothing happened regarding Poland.
A secondary purpose could of course be to scare the populations in all European countries and, together with influence operations, also make them want to reduce support to avoid being targeted themselves.
From that perspective, of course, a number of drones in more countries would work.
They obviously don’t need to worry about any reprisals, so there is really nothing stopping them. They might even dare to let someone be armed next time.
A military attack across the border is a whole different matter.
If you start to slip a bit in your analysis, nothing from the West but increased in Ukraine, right đ¶
Trying to get under NATO’s response is probably the imminent risk?
A full attack only if they believe they can get away with it, I don’t think they dare to take that chance yet.
An even greater risk is new attack vectors into Ukraine.
No, that’s exactly what I’m writing? What I mean by crossing the border is something completely different and therefore it will not happen.
I have been saying all along that I don’t believe there will be more towards the Baltic States than some form of provocation, like drones or some robot.
Then I have written that I believe the probability is much greater that they will attack Ukraine from Belarus, because I think Ukraine is Russia’s main target, and they also don’t dare to challenge NATO for real (at least not before Ukraine is settled, depending on how things go of course).
So I completely agree with you that Ukraine is the greater risk.
It’s a giant risk now especially since all of Europe except Macron, who just got into political trouble, has decided not to send troops to Ukraine.
The attack on Lviv – where it was always Poland who would save the day with a flank-mosning or something…
Estonian resistance movement and quite discreet green men are probably not far away – under NATO Article 5.
No one believes that Russia can go to full war with Europe, but the difference between small green men in eastern Ukraine or drone rain over Poland is very little in my opinion.
16 local politicians have died in a German state ahead of an election and the police rule out “foul play”, as the article is written I interpret it as natural deaths.
What do politicians in Germany actually do in their free time đ¶
The state has 18 million inhabitants, which is double the population of Sweden.
https://news.sky.com/story/online-conspiracy-theories-rife-after-16-election-candidates-die-in-germany-13427546
A bit interesting that.
If you take 20,000 average individuals and assume they are in the 30-60 age range, about 35-50 will die per year.
If there are more elderly people, of course, the number increases significantly. When it comes to politicians, I would guess that the average age is actually higher than 45 years and that there are probably some candidates over 70.
The distribution of deaths for a single month can also vary randomly, so between 1-8 deaths in a month is not so strange.
It is more common to have deaths during the winter and the hottest months of summer, and we had several weeks of extreme heat in Europe, with temperatures above normal, which may have also affected mortality.
If 16 people have died within a month, it is very unlikely, depending a bit on how the age distribution actually looks. With 20,000 people involved, there shouldn’t be too large variations.
But then we have chance that messes things up, so even if it shouldn’t happen more often than, for example, once in a thousand months, or a hundred thousand, it can still occur any month.
If it’s within two or three summer months, it’s statistically reasonable, or if the average age is around 60 years or higher.
There might be something fishy going on, so it might be a good idea to investigate it more thoroughly.
Here’s some news about this from last week.
“Six people who are candidates for the German right-wing populist party AFD in the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia have died in a short period of time. Although the police have confirmed that there are no suspicions of irregularities behind the deaths, the deaths have given rise to conspiracy theories, reports the BBC.
AFD leader Alice Weidel has fueled the speculation by sharing a post where an economist claims that the deaths are “statistically almost impossible.” However, one of the party’s prominent figures in the state, Kay Gottschalk, says he has not seen anything that reinforces the suspicions, but he wants the cases to be investigated.
Around 20,000 people are running in the election, and a representative of the state election commission points out to Der Spiegel that even six candidates from other parties have died during the same period.”
https://omni.se/flera-dodsfall-inom-afd-infor-tyskt-delstatsval/a/KM0JgG
“If you take 20,000 average individuals and assume they are in the 30-60 age range, about 35-50 will die per year.”
So it should have been 3-4 instead of 16 during the time period?
Are we discussing 4 times or 5 times the normal mortality rate here?
If it had been a medication, the company would have gone bankrupt đ
So this is what AI wrote about Germany, and if we have excess mortality among politicians, shouldn’t it be the same for the country as a whole?
No, Germany did not experience increased overall mortality in the first half of 2025; in fact, mortality figures in the second quarter (April-June) of 2025 were lower than the median of the preceding four years. While an influenza wave impacted early 2025, and heat waves caused temporary increases in mortality in July, the general trend for the year’s Q2 was below average, according to the German Federal Statistical Office.
You agree that half are AfD and half are other parties, so you don’t need to defend the starting point that only AfD is dying đ
Here you have the ages of four at least.
Candidates Ralph Lange, 66, Wolfgang Klinger, 71, Stefan Berendes, 59, and Wolfgang Seitz, 59, are the first four who died within two weeks of each other.
Tried to also bring out any possible overmortality during the summer but there were only data available up to June, however, there were data for the average temperatures which were higher.
If you are going to calculate probability, you cannot take an average and then assume that everything deviating is completely unlikely.
Did mention that it’s worth investigating because it’s high.
The fact that those who died were quite old indicates that it could be natural. Mortality increases as you get older.
If all candidates were 30 years old, it would be almost impossible. If the average age was 70, it would instead be quite natural.
Furthermore, the fact that those who died were old says nothing about the average of the 20,000 so it doesn’t help.
If we had known exactly for how long it had been going on, it would have been easier.
If it’s the Russians, it wouldn’t surprise me if it turned out that they supported both the far right and the far left.
And of course, if everyone had been from the AFD (or from any other party), it would have been really suspicious.
Can’t find ANYWHERE how many are running but you are absolutely right – that’s the pool one must measure against.
I wanted to try to verify Omni’s claim.
Naturally, I first thought it was the number of those elected that are a few thousand but that’s not the case đ
Thank you very much no1! Very sharp as usual, and depressing! Do you have any tips on how not to break down both when you write and for us who read? McDonald’s swished!
Thank you David, now it’s time for a Caribbean McDonalds, a roadkill between two slices of bread and spicy sauce âââ
I believe that the sooner we accept that we are at war, the better, then we will feel better when we restore the wetlands in Russia and start the hunger games đ„đ„đĄ
Kirk seems to have been a big name because apparently that’s all the talk in the children’s school đ¶
I barely knew who he was, now I know. I’ve probably seen his discussion videos a few times actually.
No one who thinks it is extremely high time to strengthen their own preparedness??
If the power goes out, it will be difficult with water, gasoline, mobile charging, internet, and payments.
I don’t mean that you need to run and panic buy – you should have actually done that already..
But let’s take it easy. Quick prepping at the eleventh hour…
1. Go through what you have at home TODAY!!
2. Buy at least 3 bottles of water, as well as 3 ready-to-eat canned foods and 3 packs of wet wipes.
3. Do you have empty bottles/jerry cans? Fill them with water.
4. Charge all electronics.
5. Fill up the car to at least half a tank.
6. Think about what more you should have done… Because you should have done more earlier.
7. “Then” doesn’t exist.
Then sit down and think about whether Sweden can handle 400 martyrs/night and multiple riots/”fights”…
During covid, my wife bought almost all the pasta at the supermarket and all the toilet paper, still have a few cubic meters left in the house đ
Power outages this winter worry me, but can’t afford a fireplace this year either đ
Good that you point that out!
What I actually haven’t fixed is water, which is among the most important…
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/har-ljuger-ryska-ambassadoren-om-krigsbrotten-i-butja
Well, it seems to have made good TV out of it!
Not everyone can lie, like the masters of lies #fckptn
He will probably fall out of a window!
SVT Play the whole 30 minutes
https://www.svtplay.se/video/e7ddPDw/30-minuter/sergej-beljajev-rysslands-sverige-ambassador
Must remember to check later.
Did I write that above?
Were the drones a scare tactic against Poland so that they won’t enter Ukraine when RU attacks from Belarus towards Lviv?
Could that have been a reason as well?
Surely can be a part of it.
Hursomhelst – I am on Zelensky’s line here đ
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4035154-zelensky-slams-weak-global-response-to-russian-drone-incursions-into-poland.html
It’s noticeable that he’s starting to get tired, he’s been more straightforward about what he thinks lately instead of sugarcoating it.
I understand him, and I agree.
But when it comes to saying thank you, he’s become excessively meticulous, almost to the point where you can sense that it’s to make fun of Trump and his gang. đ
Good morning!
890 KWIA
1 Tank
2 AFVs
40 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
273 U6
64 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
Glory to Ukraine
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lymha6xsvc2u