Ukraine daily update September 5, 2025

We are probably in the most dangerous phase of the war now.

Europe is threatening to send troops into Ukraine and impose tough measures against Russia, but no one knows if it’s just empty threats or not.

Russia knows that their window of opportunity to achieve a decisive outcome with Ukraine and the Baltics will close at some point, we estimate they have about a year. I base this on the fact that by then, the Balts will have re-mined their land border with Russia, and minefields have worked exceptionally well in this war when properly done.

The Balts and Ukraine will never be pro-Russian politically again, so Putin’s only chance is to snatch them away from us.

When things calmed down in Sumy, we said that RU was moving forces away from there – my guess was that they brought in NK forces as border guards, not sure.

We have also said all along that RU has more gas – we understood this on January 20 when Putin did not want peace.

We have also written that RU is holding back mechanized forces.

And that they intend to cross the Dnieper – for those of you who haven’t checked a map yet, it is currently dry north of Khakovka, they are almost crossing.

Ukraine is also holding back forces in an offensive reserve, but they need to have free rein and full asymmetric warfare to have a chance of success.

On top of everything, we have Zapad 25 around the corner.

The forces moved into Donetsk are from other fronts, so RU is still holding onto its strategic offensive reserve.

It could be the Baltics, it could be towards Lviv from Belarus, or it could be nothing.

What will Europe do if Ukraine collapses?

I think nothing, because both Germany and Poland have been very clear that they will not send troops to Ukraine, even though they didn’t need to be so explicit.

What will Europe do if there is a small skirmish in the Baltics? Probably nothing.

But in case of a full invasion, there should be a strong response, so if Putin intends to test the boundaries a little more, it will be below the level of full war, I guess.

The 70th MRD is being relocated to Pokrovsk – it is one of the more unified units on the Dnieper front.

We’ll see what happens with the 104th AAD if it is also relocated, that would signal lower ambition there.

France is rumored to be preparing for war, but I can’t vouch for the source at all, so it’s at best a rumor.

Azerbaijan is mobilizing – also just a rumor 😀

Our friend Carsten Bauer from Germany downplays Zapad 25.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-s-zapad-2025-drills-german-generals-1756733919.html

I interpret it as Trump/USA trying to persuade Ukraine not to drone the refineries and all infrastructure.

My guess has been that the US has not given Ukraine free rein at all, but it is Europe that has changed its stance, and I think that analysis still holds.

Also, the maiden voyage with the Flamingo – it works.

Ukraine’s fight for Crimea is more of a pre-emptive strike than a strategic drone war, and RU doesn’t seem to have much functioning AA left on the peninsula.

A death trap, plain and simple.

Zelensky has also promised to follow my battle plan and intends to retake Crimea.

As I said – the most dangerous months of the war, and if we in Europe let ourselves be talked down one last time, this could end in disaster.

I am now completely sure that China and Russia have cooked up something dishonest, and if Europe doesn’t show its claws at all, we will escalate further.

Trump pushing India against China was not very successful, but maybe it was Trump’s task to do so?

India was our ally, and now they are best friends with Russia and China.

For me, it’s all connected – Ukraine needs to fall so that Putin can continue, and therefore all smoke screens are just that – Putin wants to conquer Ukraine.

China must pass Taiwan to reach countries they are not allied with – like the Philippines and Japan, for example.

The positive thing on the fronts is that RU is moving existing forces, but UA is also doing the same. Both seem to be holding onto a strategic offensive reserve.

Azerbaijan becomes a big problem for RU, and if the entire area with Armenia and Georgia falls, it will be more than they can handle right now.

The big question is how Kazakhstan chooses to act here.

Or if they will be squeezed between best friends Russia and China, and Europe chooses to remain silent.

I have a post in the works about China and Russia, but mainly China and a more global perspective.

China is ready for war now.

For a long time, they stood and hesitated, and if Russia had lost, they would have retreated back into the den, but now they took the full step, and it can never be undone – China is our enemy now.

We are where we are today because Europe has never done anything.

If we continue to do nothing, it will lead to a full global conflict, if we haven’t already passed that point.

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73 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update September 5, 2025”

  1. Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-09-05:

    • 810 KIA
    • 2 Tanks
    • 2 AFVs
    • 50 Artillery systems
    • 1 MLRS
    • 1 Anti-aircraft system
    • 222 UAVs
    • 139 Vehicles & fuel tanks

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  2. 💥🔥👍

    Seems like at least one, maybe two refineries were targeted last night!

    “Ukrainian drones reportedly struck multiple Russian oil facilities overnight on Sept. 4-5, Russian Telegram channels reported.

    In Russia’s Ryazan Region, Russian Telegram channels reported that Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery overnight on Sept. 5. Explosions were first reported around 1:30 a.m. local time.

    Large black clouds of smoke were also reported in occupied Luhansk Region late on Sept. 4 amid a reported attack on an oil depot in the region. Explosions were seen in the direction of the oil depot after 9 p.m. local time, residents reported.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3ly2n4uev622i

    https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-oil-facilities-in-russias-ryazan-oblast-occupied-luhansk-oblast/

    “Strike location Geolocated: In Ryazan, based on photo and video materials, the strike hit the Elou AT-6 unit. ELOU-AVT-6 is an electro-desalination unit, an atmospheric-vacuum tubular unit, the number at the end indicates the capacity of this unit to process 6 million tons per year. However, many AVT units of the “old” stock have been modernized with an increase in capacity by 2-2.5 times, so the number at the end does not always reflect the actual capacity of the unit.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3ly2lazawas2s

    1. “Analysis by Exilenova from Ryazan shows the strike high likely hit an ELOU-AVT-6 unit — an electric desalting and atmospheric-vacuum distillation installation. Officially it handles 6 million tons of oil per year, but many of these older units were modernized to boost capacity by 2–2.5 times.”

      https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3ly32vyenjs2p

      I have come to roughly the same conclusion based on FIRMS and Google Maps, it seems to be burning right where it appears to be that type of column, then of course it is not entirely easy to see exactly where it is burning via FIRMS and neither to see exactly what equipment it is via satellite images. But it is definitely in the most sensitive area of the facility. There are also some tanks there that are likely also burning and complicating the extinguishing work. 

      1. The AVT is explained as follows:

        “AVT unit is an Atmospheric-Vacuum Tubular unit that performs the primary separation of crude oil into its various fractions, such as gasoline, kerosene, and diesel fuel.”

        It is the most important unit of the refinery, without which nothing else works since it is where the crude oil is taken in. It is also one of the more complex components in a refinery.

        Now they are built to withstand heat, high pressure, and corrosion, so it’s not very easy to knock out the column itself, it requires some explosive force. However, it’s not quite as difficult to get a pipe to burst with subsequent fire. The column may be able to withstand a fire, but it will still take weeks to repair. Just rewiring all the electrical cables that need to be replaced takes a little time. Some pipes and gaskets probably also need fixing, besides everything needing to be emptied and cleaned, etc.

        If a more powerful direct hit has occurred, so that the column itself needs to be replaced, well then it could be a matter of several months. IF they have the parts for a ready-made column. If it also needs to be manufactured, we are probably talking about six months or longer. This is not something that is mass-produced but built to order.

        Of course, a facility often has several AVTs (or ELOU-AVT if talking about the entire system), so when the fire is extinguished, operations can continue with reduced capacity. But for each AVT that is removed, the capacity decreases, besides they must remain completely closed for several weeks before they can resume operations. 

  3. Along the adjacent front sections in Donetsk/Luhansk along the eastern front, i.e. Kupyansk, Lyman, Siviersk, and Kramatorsk, there is an increasing level of attack activity in recent weeks. Lyman has been one of the most active front sections for a long time, but recently reached a record number of attacks. At the same time, the smaller sections of Kupyansk, Siviersk, and Kramatorsk seem to be taking turns reaching new heights in daily attack numbers. Most recently, Siviersk reached the second-highest number with 28 attacks (32 on July 26) since May 1 this year. The summary of the number of attacks appears to be increasing.

     

    • N Slobozhansky-Kursk 4
    • S Slobozhansky 8↘️
    • Kupyansk 9💥↗️

    • Lyman 18💥↘️

    • Siverskyi 28💥💥↗️

    • Kramatorsk 9💥

    • Toretsk 11💥

    • Pokrovsk 47💥💥💥↘️

    • Novopavlivka 21💥

    • Huliaypillia 0
    • Orikhivsk 3
    • Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2

     

    1. They are probably aiming to take Lyman first and then it’s time to tighten the sack around the Siverks area.

      Johan, do you remember that we were worried about exactly that, that they would reach Oskil, retake Lyman from which they had to flee, and then surround Siversk?

      That was back in the beginning of 2023 when the Russians advanced towards Soledar and then Bakhmut.

      It didn’t become reality then. After Bakhmut, they lost momentum, and besides, Ukraine hinted at its major spring/summer offensive. Now, 1.5 years later, it’s starting to approach.

      They have reached Oskil in a few places now. Admittedly, not with the entire front line, and there is still a bit to go to Lyman, but they are slowly progressing.

      Kupiansk is in a precarious situation, if the Russians fail to take that city, they probably won’t have much difficulty moving south and taking the whole area east of Oskil, with a high risk of encircling Ukrainian forces if they don’t manage to escape.

      I really hope they can resist. Admittedly, Oskil will provide good protection so they should be able to halt them there, but it’s not something one can be certain of.

  4. Johan! 👍👍👍

    I can certainly agree that the USA is trying to stop Ukraine’s attacks on the pipeline. Putin has probably called Trump and complained.

    If Trump has then tried to stop Ukraine by saying that he will try to get Putin to stop his attacks on civilians, Ukraine has probably grown tired of empty promises and simply responded:
    “Sure, that sounds good, when Russia stops, we’ll stop, until then we intend to continue.”

    Funny that you were thinking of writing a bit about China, I also have some thoughts on that, we’ll see if there will be a post, it would be interesting to see if we are on the same track.

  5. The one in Luhansk was indeed a fuel depot. Not bad either, also exacerbates a more acute fuel shortage.

    “Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, confirmed strikes on two key fuel sites. The Ryazan refinery, one of Russia’s four largest, was hit by the 14th Regiment together with SSO, HUR and other units. In occupied Luhansk, Ukrainian drones struck a major fuel depot.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3ly336c5lqc2p

  6. Seems like they have also hit an energy plant/factory that, among other things, produces batteries. We’ll see if there will be more reports later.

    “Overnight, a drone strike hit Yelets in Russia’s Lipetsk region, with local reports indicating the Energiya plant was likely targeted again. The facility is known for producing batteries for drones and power units for aviation and naval systems.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3ly2z3b734k2p

  7. JohanNo1: ”India was our ally and now they are besties with Russia and China.”

    India and China? Russia?

    India exports:

    United States 88
    European Union 76
    GCC 56
    ASEAN 41

    Others 130

    So, and here I count the Western Arab countries in the GCC as West, India has more than half of its exports to the West (212/383=0.554). Among the non-Western, China accounts for just under 5% (17/383=0.0444) and the Russian Federation for just over 1% (4/383=0.0104).

    It certainly sounds like a challenge for India to replace exports to the West with exports to China and Russia in the near future.

     

    Source of exports:

    List of largest trading partners of India – Wikipedia

     

    1. India is trying to keep the doors open to everyone they can benefit from. Trump’s ravages have of course made them have to approach China, and Xi likes that. The whole show they had was probably mainly aimed at the USA.

      India probably wants Russia as a gas station, just like China. Putin’s war in Ukraine has put Russia in a situation where they have to lie down for anyone who wants. I wonder how fun it feels for the Russian leadership who otherwise considered themselves superior to all other nations.

  8. Some NATO exercises at sea ahead of ZAPAD 2025?

    “Since yesterday a number of ships are exercising protecting a convoy of three ~10k ton civilian RO-RO ships. Or, how to bring thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles through a hostile Baltic Sea. Part of NATO Northern Coasts 2025.”

    “Curiously the large, slow and undergunned command ship HMS Carlskrona of SE navy drove all the way up to Kaliningrad alone (acc to AIS, maybe not actually) so we can maybe assume the exercise have managed to flatten it by now.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/auonsson.bsky.social/post/3ly3gfj26ak22

  9. When it comes to Putin, he is willing to wait and wait and wait for Putin. Before that, he does not intend to exert any pressure, for example through new sanctions or tariffs. 

    When it comes to countries threatened by Russia, he is not so concerned, first he imposes tariffs and now he is removing the security support provided. Will there be sanctions in the next step?

    “Trump withdraws military support to Russia’s neighbors

    The Trump administration has decided to cut off security support worth hundreds of millions of dollars to several of Russia’s neighboring countries in Europe. This is reported by several sources to both the Washington Post and the Financial Times.

    For a long time, the USA has offered training and defense equipment to countries like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. But as part of Trump’s ambitions to make his European allies rely less on support from the USA, the program will be terminated.

    The White House now hopes that the wealthier European countries will take over the responsibility for Europe’s eastern flank. Diplomats contacted by FT say that they are still trying to assess the impact of this, but the spontaneous reactions are not positive.”
    https://omni.se/trump-drar-in-militart-stod-till-rysslands-grannar/a/xmLxWQ

    1. Putin is starting to become afraid that the Baltics will invade Russia, Trump understands his concern, so he helps as much as he can.

      I can understand that Europe’s defense should be able to stand on its own, but Trump chooses the timing that suits Putin best for dismantling.

      If that doesn’t help, and things start going worse for Russia, I think there will probably be some sort of sanctions from the USA, an end to intelligence data from satellites, etc.

      If things really go badly for Putin, it might be lend-lease again.

      Trump pretends to be angry with Putin and Medvedev, but so far it hasn’t been noticed in actions, and I don’t think it will be more than just words either. He has found Venezuela in the neighborhood now, which also has a lot of oil that he surely wants to seize.

  10. “Azerbaijan becomes a big problem for RU and if the whole area with Armenia and Georgia falls, it will be more than they can handle right now.

    The big question is how Kazakhstan chooses to act here.

    Or if these countries will be caught between best friends Russia and China, and Europe chooses to remain silent.”

    1. A good question!

      I sketch beautifully: Geographically, neither Georgia, Azerbaijan, nor even Kazakhstan need to be squeezed between China and Russia. But it depends a lot on both their ability to break away from Russia and China. And also on the support one can receive. Europe is the closest. I seem to recall that Kazakhstan can supply Europe/EU with oil via pipelines that go through Azerbaijan, Turkey, Greece/Macedonia, and Italy.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan_pipeline

      There we have a seed and something to build on. In both cases, it is important to act now with synergy effects for the benefit of Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

      If the visions exist (and we see that the Russian Federation dissolves), one can also precede China and look further towards Mongolia – partly through some Russian liberated regions and up to the Pacific Ocean. A railway between London and Anchorage, Alaska, USA? A string of regions through Asia that connects the Atlantic with the Pacific by land. Also connecting Europe and the USA via the Bering Strait. A western response to China’s Silk Road Initiative. But much more extensive. Establishing a definitive wedge by land between China and Russia. Where a band of free regions contributes to stability, peace, and economic prosperity in Asia.

        1. Sounds good, if the EU starts working on it now, maybe it will be ready in 50 years and 50 kilometers of documents with investigations of invertebrate and vertebrate creatures that should be protected along the way.

  11. 🧵7/35

    On the surface of the war’s visual fabric, the life of an infantryman in 2025 might still look similar to that of the first year of the full-scale war. Trenches, dugouts, firing points; an atmosphere that continues to evoke the Western Front in World War I.

    The reality on the ground, however, has undergone a complete transformation, mostly due to the advent of abundant high-precision strike drones on both sides.

    For 24-year-old junior lieutenant Taras “Corporal,” the difference is black and white.

    “During the counteroffensive (in 2023), we could focus on normal infantry work, assaulting and defending trenches,” he told the Kyiv Independent.

    “Now, most of the time, the infantryman’s focus is not only on the ground, on the enemy directly on the battlefield, but also on the sky – different sounds, the silhouettes of drones, and so on.”

    🧵Behind Ukraine’s manpower crisis lies a bleak new battlefield reality for infantry https://x.com/anno1540/status/1963646234901545447?s=46

    https://kyivindependent.com/behind-ukraines-manpower-crisis-lies-a-bleak-new-battlefield-reality-for-infantry/

  12. “President Donald Trump writes on social media that the USA seems to have ”lost India and Russia to the deepest, darkest China”. This is reported by Reuters.

    The statement comes after Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin met with China’s President Xi Jinping earlier this week, something that has been interpreted as a step towards creating a new world order.

    Trump has previously said that he is ”disappointed” in Putin, but not concerned about the deepening ties between Russia and China.”
    https://omni.se/trump-forlorat-indien-till-djupaste-morkaste-kina/a/Oo4nGb

  13. Send four fresh (or eight older) CV-90 to Ukraine instead!!!

    The Cultural Canon can be found on Wikipedia, is that enough?

    “The Investigation Committee for Sweden’s Cultural Canon proposes investing 170 million SEK in spreading the 100 selected works, reports Magasin K.”

    https://omni.se/a/3MvJOd

    1. I agree. Great in other words! The CV 90 is not ashamed of itself. The cultural canon was probably a pea shooter. All cultural figures seem to be dissatisfied. The most positive was probably Ebba Witt-Brattström who thought “it could have been worse”. Despite the fact that Hasse & Tage didn’t make the cut, there was humor after all. Everyone dissatisfied except the Saab CEO… Swedish culture in a nutshell.

  14. I agree. In other words, great! CV 90 is not ashamed. The cultural canon was probably a pea shooter. All cultural figures seem to be dissatisfied. The most positive was probably Ebba Witt-Brattström who thought “it could have been worse”. Even though Hasse & Tage didn’t make the cut, there was humor anyway. Everyone dissatisfied except the Saab CEO… Swedish culture in a nutshell.

    1. I liked it, that course plan where most of it includes cheating a lot of schools with and the students do not get this.

      Well, maybe one could have gone through the National Agency for Education instead but now it became this one.

  15. Welcome to “Mao Zedong’s Drunken Fridays,” today we will be reading Mao Zedong’s “Little Red Riding Hood.” But first, everyone must go out into the yard and clap their hands under the tree – we will achieve great things.

    Of course, Chinese-style Drunken Fridays will also feature a movie about dogs.

  16. Of course – here are three quick ones:

    Poor Soviet jokes.

    Why were there no “knock-knock” jokes in the Soviet Union?

    – Because no one ever came back when they knocked on the door.

     

    What’s the difference between Russia and the Titanic?

    – The Titanic had at least one working band.

     

    Putin says to his advisor:

    – “How is the economy doing?”

    Advisor: “Like a train.”

    Putin: “Fantastic!”

    Advisor: “Yes… like the train in Russia. Delayed, broken, and heading in the wrong direction.”

     

     

  17. I have now seen a lot of comments and questions directed at me that I have not responded to…

    It’s been a bit stressful in recent weeks but now it seems to calm down.

    We finally got a school and you already know that I received a bag of money and am buying a transport service instead of being fooled every day by a driver.

    Small steps forward.

  18. Zapad

    This year, exercises will include:

    • simulated counter-air operations,
    • advances supported by mechanized forces,
    • active use of electronic warfare, with emphasis on communications and transport,
    • mass involvement of reservists, and mobilization of local authorities.
  19. In the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, Ukrainian defenders repelled eight Russian attacks. The enemy carried out 14 air strikes, dropped a total of 38 guided aerial bombs, and carried out 223 artillery strikes, including five from multiple launch rocket systems.

    Over the past day, seven combat clashes took place in the Vovchansk area in the South Slobozhanskyi direction.

    Ten attacks by the occupiers were recorded in the Kupiansk direction. The defense forces repelled the enemy’s assault in the areas of the settlements of Kupiansk, Petropavlivka, and Kolisnykivka.

    In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked twenty times, trying to advance near the settlements of Karpivka, Andriivka, Druzhlyubivka, Kolodyazi, Drobysheve, and in the direction of Olgivka and Shandryholove.

    In the Siverskyi direction, the aggressor attacked near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Dronivka, Fedorivka, Vyimka, and in the direction of Dibrova. In total, there were twenty combat clashes over the past day.

    In the Kramatorsk direction, the Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks near Stupochky.

    In the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 13 attacks in the areas of Pleshchiivka, Rusyn Yar, and Poltavka.

    In the Pokrovsk direction, our defenders stopped 48 attacks by the aggressor in the areas of the settlements of Shakhov, Nikanorivka, Rodynske, Novoekonomichne, Mayak, Rubizhne, Sukhyi Yar, Shevchenko, Promin, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, and in the direction of Filiya and Novopavlivka.

    In the Novopavlivka direction, the Defense Forces repelled 31 enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Filia, Piddubne, Oleksandrograd, Voskresenka, Temyrivka, Shevchenko, Maliivka, and Komyshuvakha.

    In the Huliaipole direction, the enemy did not conduct any offensive actions during the past day.

    In the Orikhiv direction, the aggressor attacked the positions of our defenders three times in the areas of Stepnogorsk and Novodanilivka.

    Over the past day, in the Prydniprovsk direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to approach the fortifications of our defenders three times.

    In the Volyn and Polissya directions, there were no signs of the enemy forming offensive groups.

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