Got some comments that my last post was pessimistic and that I was feeling down – I probably wasn’t and just trying to describe the situation, but I’m like a disappointed parent when you discover that the whiskey bottle in the liquor cabinet is 90% apple juice over Europe’s passivity here.
Starting with Budanov and this one was really funny 🤣

I felt Napoleon’s spirit starting to awaken and that Europe could claw its way to a better position than during WW2 and the Cold War, but apparently it didn’t happen.
Ukraine would have won its war if the USA hadn’t rigged everything in Russia’s favor, who surely lost completely on their own at least five times. If Europe had seriously intervened at the low points, you know which ones, this would have ended differently.
Europe is absent in the Ukraine war, the financial crash, the global situation, and the positioning for the world order in the next +70-100 years.
The only thing that could change this is if we go to war, but since we haven’t even been able to support anyone else going to war for us, I see it as less likely – we will continue to be auxiliaries to the USA when they want and not embark on our own violent campaigns.
Which means that when the USA wants a country’s natural resources, we will provide them, and when someone is subjected to abuse like Ukraine, we will turn a blind eye if the USA tells us to.
It is a crime in itself not to report if you have witnessed a crime, isn’t that how it goes, but now we are going back to a world order that the USA likes and I am not very keen on.
I don’t know what is timing and what is Trump, but unlike Europe, the USA didn’t just say they would rise, they did and everyone backed down immediately.
Europe has at times promised Ukraine all the support to the breaking point, that they will get their country back, that we stand unequivocally with them, and a few other politically consciously vague statements. Then we rose halfway only to sit back down immediately when the USA kindly asked us to.
In the case of Ukraine/Russia, we know that the USA wants an intact Russia and that Ukraine was in the way of that. Why the USA wants something that is unequivocally bad for Europe we do not yet know, but my money is on a weak, divided, and frightened Europe that is easy to control – we’ll see.
Russia has just left Syria – the USA and Russia have a list with many points being checked off now, and the USA getting Syria was one point. I would argue that the USA has negotiated quite well here and gets a lot strategically in exchange for Donetsk – Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Gaza, pacified Europe, and what else.

We know that the USA has held Russia’s hand and pushed away a persistent Ukraine when they should have won – it is well known and nothing for historians to argue about.
Even though the Ukraine war is now coming to an end, which we rejoice in, it only means that global conflict will increase in the future because Ukraine was either the one to extinguish it or escalate the conflict, or alternatively a new Cold War.
Does anyone believe that Russia will voluntarily demilitarize now?
Withdraw their agents and saboteurs from Europe, stop paying off all politicians and fringe parties, stop sending drugs and coaching gangs + arming them?
For example, Merkel seems to have a lucrative side job 🧐
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/06/angela-merkel-poland-baltics-blame-ukraine-war
Will Russia stop smuggling, stop hiding money in Europe, stop buying houses at inflated prices so that we in the lower class can’t afford them?
Or not repeat what happened in 2015 and stop influencing the shutdown of electricity production, shutting down agriculture, and polarizing society.
Will the GRU, FSB, and all others who have enjoyed this become unemployed now, and lose their lucrative side incomes?
Or do you think they will receive even more resources that are released upon a ceasefire that they can use to destabilize Europe instead?
A better opportunity to get rid of this eternal hydra for Europe will never come within the next hundred-year cycle, and we have just let the USA design a return to the Cold War for Europe without protesting, except for Macron.
The next issue that Europe should be very quick on is all the unemployed soldiers in Ukraine – if we don’t have a brilliant plan for that, they will become Europe’s new underworld in a year, eagerly encouraged by the GRU and FSB who fully resource their business idea and provide them with necessary job training.
The USA has just pacified South America and made many countries down there overnight allies of the USA, as I sit in the Caribbean, I can inform you that the shadow of the USA now hangs over the area and no one will deny the USA anything out of pure self-preservation – no one is keen on doing a perp-walk like Maduro. This the USA will exploit for business, of course, for example, that the Chinese companies that always win the tenders down here will no longer win and American companies will instead get the lucrative contracts in the region – America First.
They have secured oil and rare earth metals, both of which are likely needed in the upcoming reshoring of industry that the USA has announced, and Europe should also do.
The USA has de facto assisted Israel in reaching a solution advantageous to Israel with Gaza, even though direct hostilities are now also over, which is positive for all parties?
Europe is pacified, Macron is out in 2027, things are not going well for Kier Starmer, who knows how Merz will fare in the upcoming financial crash when Germany is in bad shape, and the rest of Europe complies.
In fact, if there is a severe recession, the UK may well get Reform, France Le Pen, and Germany AfD forming governments then, as citizens in pure desperation vote for anything to escape the quagmire they have ended up in.
Iran is on the verge of being bought by the USA because no one believes they will let go of Iran post-death of the mullah?
In addition to China attacking Japan, supporting Russia in the Ukraine war, starting wars between Pakistan – India, Thailand – Cambodia, and if I forgot something, they have also had their own Stalin-like purge somewhat quietly.
I don’t know what this means – is Xi the least or most bad for us?

China has also infiltrated the Russian Far East and is buying loyalty, land, and power, which the central power in Moscow sees and cries over, but can’t do anything about.
The question that remains unanswered right now is whether there is another layer to this onion or not – that post Ukraine war, and in exchange for Russia keeping Europe weak, divided, and terrified, does the USA help Russia get rid of the China problem?
The assumption made was that this was the plan but that Russia did not comply at all, so China-Russia forever has prevailed, and that the USA under Trump failed miserably.
You can see just like me that the USA now controls Venezuela and MENA, which are two major oil exporters to China.
The last major exporter is Russia, and if they turn off the tap so that the damn Russians can sell westward at a better price – China will be high and dry and the start of the hunger games Chinese version 😶
Could it be that everything we’ve seen is still the USA trying to get Russia on board against China, only that the Ukrainian heroes crashed the timetable?
Yes, Europe loves to taunt Trump and the USA is always subject to scathing criticism, but they have made several moves over a couple of months that greatly benefit them at the expense of everyone else – we can scream as loud as we want, but if we don’t dare to stop the USA, it will be as they want.
Do you think then that the USA will sit still and watch an exploding national debt pile and a burning dollar, or will they bend the rules to save their skin as they did in 1999 and 2008?
By the way, Trump’s “board of peace” is quite similar to the membership list in BRICS – do you think China likes that?
So, the war ending in 2026 was true but not in the way I had imagined – the constant caveat turned out to be what decided it, that Europe let itself be talked into submission. I started to believe that we wouldn’t let ourselves be talked into submission again for the tenth time in this war, but that’s what happened.
The blank spot for four years – the determination of the USA and above all Europe’s inability and fear of Putin.
Is history repeating itself?
China is very intriguing, that Xi Jinping has had a purge comparable to if our Chief of Defense, Minister of Defense, and some high generals were dismissed in Sweden must have military implications?
Either they wanted to or they didn’t want to attack Taiwan before they were dismissed – we’ll see.
We are now actually beyond the Ukraine war, we are beyond Russia, and there was no liberated Belarus, no demilitarized Kaliningrad, and no liberated republics in Russia because Europe chose to turn a blind eye.
If no one is reading Johan No.1, I’m starting to wonder now 😶
What remains is the China – USA relationship, the financial crash, and then who will secure Africa. The only thing we know with great likelihood is that it won’t be Europe unless the USA encourages us to do business there.
At the very least, a new Cold War emerged from all of this, assuming China doesn’t go and completely collapse in the financial crash.
As soon as the ink dries on the peace plan, Europe should reconsider its support for Ukraine and let the USA take the lead again, but I am quite convinced that there are points in the agreement where Europe should increase support instead, and the USA will take everything that is not nailed to the floor.
I welcome Ukraine into the EU – they have earned it after this war.
The USA will immediately lift the sanctions on Russia and force Europe to do the same – the shadow fleet will be legal under the Trump flag.
The world is sometimes exciting, I only had one wish to Santa Claus for 2026 and that was for Russia to turn inwards and split into about ten new countries, but the USA didn’t want that – hope the USA doesn’t get a crappy gift from Santa this year.
The world’s second-to-last colonial power got a free pass 😐
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Russian losses in the war in Ukraine 2026-01-28
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
“⚡️Pro-Ukrainian partisans sabotage substation in Russia’s Udmurt Republic, disrupt power supply to military‑industrial plant, group claims.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3mdhlscbf2c2y
https://kyivindependent.com/pro-ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-electrical-substation-in-russias-udmurt-republic-disrupt-power-supply-to-military-industrial-plant-group-claims/
Very well written by Johan no 1. Thank you👍
I was thinking of writing earlier that the first nail in the MAGA coffin was hammered in when the Mercosur agreement was finalized. But that nail got bent. I had forgotten that the EU is the EU.
The farmers in Southern Europe protested, the French farmers the most naturally.
Nail two should be the trade agreement with India. Modi got tired of Trump’s tariff increases and hurried to sign a deal with the EU. We do not yet know who will protest in the EU this time as the agreement has not been made public. Are there curry growers in Spain? Or growers of cashew nuts? Textiles and agricultural products are probably what you first think of when it comes to exports from India.
“‼️ Russia: “Sales of Russian agricultural machinery fell by 21%.” Oh dear… http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8379206”
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mdhjnmzgms2r“
“Casualties, damage to critical infrastructure reported as Russia launches missiles, drones at various regions of Ukraine”
“Moscow, the substation fucked up…”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3mdh5rpwvyk2v
Off-Topic, US Economy
Go petrodollar!
USD:
The shale oil is soon running out. And what little is left is expensive to extract. Soon, it will only be enough for the Last anointing.
A little up in Huliaipole in the south, otherwise pretty much the same low level of the total of Russian attacks along the front as during the past five days. After a few weeks of a period with (compared to the months before) a low number of attacks, they gathered strength for the attack storm on the 23rd of January, with a huge 92 attacks, strong 37 against Huliaipole, and a total of 222 attacks. They then returned to an even lower number of attacks. Did the air go out of the Russian attack machine?
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
S Slobozhansky 3
Kupyansk 3
Lyman 4
Slovyansk 3
Kramatorsk 1
Kostjantynivka 11💥↘️
Pokrovsk 32💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 6
Huliaipole 22💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 1
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1
Sum sectors 87↗️
Unlocalized 18↘️
Total 105