World daily update January 28, 2026

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Got some comments that my last post was pessimistic and that I was feeling down – I probably wasn’t and just trying to describe the situation, but I’m like a disappointed parent when you discover that the whiskey bottle in the liquor cabinet is 90% apple juice over Europe’s passivity here.

Starting with Budanov and this one was really funny đŸ€Ł

I felt Napoleon’s spirit starting to awaken and that Europe could claw its way to a better position than during WW2 and the Cold War, but apparently it didn’t happen.

Ukraine would have won its war if the USA hadn’t rigged everything in Russia’s favor, who surely lost completely on their own at least five times. If Europe had seriously intervened at the low points, you know which ones, this would have ended differently.

Europe is absent in the Ukraine war, the financial crash, the global situation, and the positioning for the world order in the next +70-100 years.

The only thing that could change this is if we go to war, but since we haven’t even been able to support anyone else going to war for us, I see it as less likely – we will continue to be auxiliaries to the USA when they want and not embark on our own violent campaigns.

Which means that when the USA wants a country’s natural resources, we will provide them, and when someone is subjected to abuse like Ukraine, we will turn a blind eye if the USA tells us to.

It is a crime in itself not to report if you have witnessed a crime, isn’t that how it goes, but now we are going back to a world order that the USA likes and I am not very keen on.

I don’t know what is timing and what is Trump, but unlike Europe, the USA didn’t just say they would rise, they did and everyone backed down immediately.

Europe has at times promised Ukraine all the support to the breaking point, that they will get their country back, that we stand unequivocally with them, and a few other politically consciously vague statements. Then we rose halfway only to sit back down immediately when the USA kindly asked us to.

In the case of Ukraine/Russia, we know that the USA wants an intact Russia and that Ukraine was in the way of that. Why the USA wants something that is unequivocally bad for Europe we do not yet know, but my money is on a weak, divided, and frightened Europe that is easy to control – we’ll see.

Russia has just left Syria – the USA and Russia have a list with many points being checked off now, and the USA getting Syria was one point. I would argue that the USA has negotiated quite well here and gets a lot strategically in exchange for Donetsk – Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Gaza, pacified Europe, and what else.

We know that the USA has held Russia’s hand and pushed away a persistent Ukraine when they should have won – it is well known and nothing for historians to argue about.

Even though the Ukraine war is now coming to an end, which we rejoice in, it only means that global conflict will increase in the future because Ukraine was either the one to extinguish it or escalate the conflict, or alternatively a new Cold War.

Does anyone believe that Russia will voluntarily demilitarize now?

Withdraw their agents and saboteurs from Europe, stop paying off all politicians and fringe parties, stop sending drugs and coaching gangs + arming them?

For example, Merkel seems to have a lucrative side job 🧐

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/06/angela-merkel-poland-baltics-blame-ukraine-war

Will Russia stop smuggling, stop hiding money in Europe, stop buying houses at inflated prices so that we in the lower class can’t afford them?

Or not repeat what happened in 2015 and stop influencing the shutdown of electricity production, shutting down agriculture, and polarizing society.

Will the GRU, FSB, and all others who have enjoyed this become unemployed now, and lose their lucrative side incomes?

Or do you think they will receive even more resources that are released upon a ceasefire that they can use to destabilize Europe instead?

A better opportunity to get rid of this eternal hydra for Europe will never come within the next hundred-year cycle, and we have just let the USA design a return to the Cold War for Europe without protesting, except for Macron.

The next issue that Europe should be very quick on is all the unemployed soldiers in Ukraine – if we don’t have a brilliant plan for that, they will become Europe’s new underworld in a year, eagerly encouraged by the GRU and FSB who fully resource their business idea and provide them with necessary job training.

The USA has just pacified South America and made many countries down there overnight allies of the USA, as I sit in the Caribbean, I can inform you that the shadow of the USA now hangs over the area and no one will deny the USA anything out of pure self-preservation – no one is keen on doing a perp-walk like Maduro. This the USA will exploit for business, of course, for example, that the Chinese companies that always win the tenders down here will no longer win and American companies will instead get the lucrative contracts in the region – America First.

They have secured oil and rare earth metals, both of which are likely needed in the upcoming reshoring of industry that the USA has announced, and Europe should also do.

The USA has de facto assisted Israel in reaching a solution advantageous to Israel with Gaza, even though direct hostilities are now also over, which is positive for all parties?

Europe is pacified, Macron is out in 2027, things are not going well for Kier Starmer, who knows how Merz will fare in the upcoming financial crash when Germany is in bad shape, and the rest of Europe complies.

In fact, if there is a severe recession, the UK may well get Reform, France Le Pen, and Germany AfD forming governments then, as citizens in pure desperation vote for anything to escape the quagmire they have ended up in.

Iran is on the verge of being bought by the USA because no one believes they will let go of Iran post-death of the mullah?

In addition to China attacking Japan, supporting Russia in the Ukraine war, starting wars between Pakistan – India, Thailand – Cambodia, and if I forgot something, they have also had their own Stalin-like purge somewhat quietly.

I don’t know what this means – is Xi the least or most bad for us?

China has also infiltrated the Russian Far East and is buying loyalty, land, and power, which the central power in Moscow sees and cries over, but can’t do anything about.

The question that remains unanswered right now is whether there is another layer to this onion or not – that post Ukraine war, and in exchange for Russia keeping Europe weak, divided, and terrified, does the USA help Russia get rid of the China problem?

The assumption made was that this was the plan but that Russia did not comply at all, so China-Russia forever has prevailed, and that the USA under Trump failed miserably.

You can see just like me that the USA now controls Venezuela and MENA, which are two major oil exporters to China.

The last major exporter is Russia, and if they turn off the tap so that the damn Russians can sell westward at a better price – China will be high and dry and the start of the hunger games Chinese version đŸ˜¶

Could it be that everything we’ve seen is still the USA trying to get Russia on board against China, only that the Ukrainian heroes crashed the timetable?

Yes, Europe loves to taunt Trump and the USA is always subject to scathing criticism, but they have made several moves over a couple of months that greatly benefit them at the expense of everyone else – we can scream as loud as we want, but if we don’t dare to stop the USA, it will be as they want.

Do you think then that the USA will sit still and watch an exploding national debt pile and a burning dollar, or will they bend the rules to save their skin as they did in 1999 and 2008?

By the way, Trump’s “board of peace” is quite similar to the membership list in BRICS – do you think China likes that?

So, the war ending in 2026 was true but not in the way I had imagined – the constant caveat turned out to be what decided it, that Europe let itself be talked into submission. I started to believe that we wouldn’t let ourselves be talked into submission again for the tenth time in this war, but that’s what happened.

The blank spot for four years – the determination of the USA and above all Europe’s inability and fear of Putin.

Is history repeating itself?

China is very intriguing, that Xi Jinping has had a purge comparable to if our Chief of Defense, Minister of Defense, and some high generals were dismissed in Sweden must have military implications?

Either they wanted to or they didn’t want to attack Taiwan before they were dismissed – we’ll see.

We are now actually beyond the Ukraine war, we are beyond Russia, and there was no liberated Belarus, no demilitarized Kaliningrad, and no liberated republics in Russia because Europe chose to turn a blind eye.

If no one is reading Johan No.1, I’m starting to wonder now đŸ˜¶

What remains is the China – USA relationship, the financial crash, and then who will secure Africa. The only thing we know with great likelihood is that it won’t be Europe unless the USA encourages us to do business there.

At the very least, a new Cold War emerged from all of this, assuming China doesn’t go and completely collapse in the financial crash.

As soon as the ink dries on the peace plan, Europe should reconsider its support for Ukraine and let the USA take the lead again, but I am quite convinced that there are points in the agreement where Europe should increase support instead, and the USA will take everything that is not nailed to the floor.

I welcome Ukraine into the EU – they have earned it after this war.

The USA will immediately lift the sanctions on Russia and force Europe to do the same – the shadow fleet will be legal under the Trump flag.

The world is sometimes exciting, I only had one wish to Santa Claus for 2026 and that was for Russia to turn inwards and split into about ten new countries, but the USA didn’t want that – hope the USA doesn’t get a crappy gift from Santa this year.

The world’s second-to-last colonial power got a free pass 😐

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42 thoughts on “World daily update January 28, 2026”

  1. MXT

    Russian losses in the war in Ukraine 2026-01-28

    • 690 KIA
    • 4 AFVs
    • 22 Artillery systems
    • 1 MLRS
    • 1012 UAVs
    • 72 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
    • 2 Special equipment

    SLAVA UKRAINI

    1. Proxima

      Very well written by Johan no 1. Thank you👍
      I was thinking of writing earlier that the first nail in the MAGA coffin was hammered in when the Mercosur agreement was finalized. But that nail got bent. I had forgotten that the EU is the EU.
      The farmers in Southern Europe protested, the French farmers the most naturally.
      Nail two should be the trade agreement with India. Modi got tired of Trump’s tariff increases and hurried to sign a deal with the EU. We do not yet know who will protest in the EU this time as the agreement has not been made public. Are there curry growers in Spain? Or growers of cashew nuts? Textiles and agricultural products are probably what you first think of when it comes to exports from India.

    1. Proxima

      The shale oil is soon running out. And what little is left is expensive to extract. Soon, it will only be enough for the Last anointing.

      1. MXT

        The final lubrication sounds good! 😄

        It should last a while longer and they have Venezuela now, so when it comes to oil, the dollar should continue to thrive, but it can’t reasonably fall too low before it becomes a credibility issue and no one wants to hold more dollars than is really needed.

  8. 205

    A little up in Huliaipole in the south, otherwise pretty much the same low level of the total of Russian attacks along the front as during the past five days. After a few weeks of a period with (compared to the months before) a low number of attacks, they gathered strength for the attack storm on the 23rd of January, with a huge 92 attacks, strong 37 against Huliaipole, and a total of 222 attacks. They then returned to an even lower number of attacks. Did the air go out of the Russian attack machine?

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
    S Slobozhansky 3
    Kupyansk 3
    Lyman 4
    Slovyansk 3
    Kramatorsk 1
    Kostjantynivka 11đŸ’„â†˜ïž
    Pokrovsk 32đŸ’„đŸ’„
    Oleksandrivskij 6
    Huliaipole 22đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
    Orikhivsk 1
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1

    Sum sectors 87↗
    Unlocalized 18↘
    Total 105

  9. 205

    Off-topic, China 🇹🇳 – Japan đŸ‡ŻđŸ‡”

    The renowned twin pandas Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei have landed in the Sichuan province in China on Wednesday, reports Reuters, citing a Chinese panda research center.

    The pandas, who grew up in Japan, were transported by airplane and were reported to have arrived safely.

    Historically, China has used “panda diplomacy” where other countries have been able to host the animals, but recently the relationship between China and Japan has become increasingly tense, partly due to differing views on Taiwan. Japan no longer has any pandas in the country.

    — DN

      1. CB500four

        We also had two pandas at a zoo here in Finland, Lumi (snow) and Pyry (blizzard, as in snowstorm). It became too expensive in the long run, so they were returned and the zoo later went bankrupt.

  10. 205

    Sanctions, India 🇼🇳

    🇼🇳 India’s imports of Russian oil have fallen by about 28% from their peak as new supply sources emerged, Oil Minister said at an energy conference on Tuesday.

    Supplies have fallen to 1.3 million bpd from 1.8 million bpd and could decline further, he said in an interview with Bloomberg. He said India is purchasing oil from 41 countries, down from 27 previously.

    He added that India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, is seeking to increase energy trade with Canada and the United States.

    https://x.com/savchenkoreview/status/2016445007293477075?s=46

  11. johan No.1

    Yes, the dollar surely broke through all resistance?

    Not very fun to lose 25% of the salary even if someone wrote that they didn’t feel sorry for me 😀

    Now it’s probably not over for the USA there and the important thing is how it goes in the upcoming financial crash which probably has a high probability of happening this year?

    But if everyone dumps the national debt, it could get messy?

     

    1. MXT

      It has probably still benefited the export, so there has been some benefit with low valuation, but somewhere the limit is reached and the trust is exhausted. The coming months will probably be interesting to see how their economy is doing. If they lower the interest rates, the national debt becomes less expensive, but on the other hand, it becomes less interesting to lend them money, so just for that reason, a certain dumping could occur automatically.

      1. CB500four

        Well, it benefits exports and raises prices for imported goods plus the tariffs that also add to the price. It will probably decrease trade overall in the USA, but in the long run, it may well benefit domestic production.

    1. 205

      What indicates that Russia will accept the peace proposal that Ukraine has put forward with the USA? If the proposal includes sufficient defense guarantees, which would be likely considering that Ukraine has been involved in shaping these criteria, then Russia faces the same problem it went to war for. Because it was the eradication of Ukraine that Russia went to war for.

    2. CB500four

      As 205 has pointed out, Russia has not approved it yet.

      Of course, there are some kind of dealings going on, that’s why Trump is in such a hurry. Russia has probably promised a large part of Ukraine’s assets to Trump, just as long as he negotiates on their behalf. Then it may well be that they have promised lucrative contracts to the USA for the refurbishment of the oil and gas infrastructure.

      It’s the “spoils of peace” that they are dividing up. Europe will finance the rebuilding of Ukraine without getting a share of the natural resources. As the Canadian statesman said, “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

      How about Russia’s demand for a reduction in the Ukrainian defense forces? Is it the case that the USA’s security guarantees are conditioned on the decimation of Ukraine’s defense forces?

      With Trump at the helm, I wouldn’t trust security guarantees from the USA, but of course, they will defend their economic interests in Ukraine, and in the Russian-occupied parts.

  18. johanno.1337

    On the theme of the world: In Australia, there is a good awareness of the importance of the Philippines, and they seem to get along well too.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-15/australia-defence-investment-bases-philippines-us-china/106220666

    I missed that Australia had a mini-NATO with Indonesia:

    “In October, Canberra signed a mutual defence treaty with Papua New Guinea and a Treaty on Common Security with Indonesia in November, which sees both countries consider a joint military response if either comes under attack.”

    Reading more about the agreement with Indonesia, however, there are no firm security guarantees involved.

  19. CB500four

    A good post today Johan.

    It seems like things are really stirring violently all over the world, and it could indeed turn out as bad as you write.

    But… these countries that are now causing trouble for the free world are all dictatorships, yes I count Trump’s regime as a possible future dictatorship. A dictatorship falls when the leader loses control over the people or the military.

    In the USA, Trump is trying to gain control over his opponents with the help of his brownshirts (ICE), but it’s not as easy to scare them into silence as it was in Germany in the 1940s. Now there is the Internet and mobile cameras, and ICE’s actions could lead to a civil war. Trump will then declare a state of emergency, preferably before the midterm election. Then it depends on the army, and if the army is on Trump’s side, the USA is lost, but I have hope that it won’t go that far.

    Trump is hanging by a thread in several ways. He is old and frail, he could die, he could be removed from office, because there is probably a possibility according to the constitution to remove a president if he is no longer of sound mind, which he hasn’t been for a long time. If he is removed, Vance will take his place, and that’s not good either, but maybe he will become more normal when his position no longer depends on his loyalty to Trump.

    In China, it seems that the army’s loyalty to Xi is starting to crack, and therefore he is trying to tighten even more control over the army, among other things by increasing political education. It remains to be seen if it has the intended effect.

    In Russia, Putin is becoming looser and looser, he is obsessed with Ukraine, and it’s only a matter of time before someone tries to make a move. Now he has Trump who surely would like to see him stay in power, but when Trump is out of the picture, which I assume could happen at any time, things could also change quickly in Russia.

    If I were to guess the order in which these dictators fall, it would be like this:

    1. Trump, either dead from old age/illness, or removed due to mental confusion.
    2. Putin, due to internal power struggles, leading to purges and division.
    3. Xi, if he decides on the invasion of Taiwan without full support of the Army.
      1. CB500four

        By now, China has probably considered Taiwan to belong to China ever since the democratically elected government fled there after the communist coup.

        However, I have not noticed the same rhetoric from previous Chinese leaders. Xi has more tangible dictatorial tendencies than the others have had, except for Mao, of course.

        Xi inherited a China with tremendous growth, and during his time, it has started to experience growing pains. Xi has ensured that he remains on the throne until his death, and he is increasingly consolidating power to himself; behind the amiable facade lies a more and more power-hungry dictator.

        What do dictators usually do when things go wrong domestically? Well, they try to shift the focus to an external enemy. Taiwan has been a thorn in the side for a long time, so they can target that.

        So, yes, I believe Xi is the one who thinks he has the most to gain from reunifying China with Taiwan.

        Although the chance of a rebellion against Xi is not great, the recent purges show that Xi does not fully trust his generals, and the fact that the generals were quite popular only increases discontent within the military.

        These are just speculations on my part, and it may well be that Xi is in full control, but the military surely knows the risk to China’s well-being that an attack on Taiwan entails, and China’s newfound prosperity could collapse just like Russia’s “prosperity” did when Putin underestimated Ukraine’s resistance.

         

  22. 205

    Off-topic United States of America (USA) đŸ‡ș🇾 đŸ€ African Union (AU)

    The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, this afternoon received a high-level United States delegation led by the Deputy Secretary of State, H.E. Christopher Landau. The delegation also included the Commander of U.S. AFRICOM, General Dagvin Anderson.

    The Chairperson noted that Deputy Secretary Landau’s visit comes at a moment of profound regional and global complexity, underscoring the importance of close coordination between the African Union & the United States. He reaffirmed the African Union’s strong commitment to its strategic partnership with the United States, grounded in mutual respect, shared interests, and a common commitment to peace, stability, and prosperity.

    H.E. Mr Youssouf & H.E. Mr Landau welcomed strengthened cooperation on strategic infrastructure & investment, including progress achieved through AU–U.S. technical working groups & sustained U.S. engagement with key departments of the African Union Commission. In this context, they announced the launch of the U.S.–AUC Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group, a concrete step to mobilize high-quality, trade-enabling infrastructure, unlock private sector investment, & advance continental priorities under Agenda 2063, the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), & the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

    The Chairperson & the Deputy Secretary of State also exchanged views on cooperation in areas of health, peace & security in the region reaffirming African-led efforts in the Great Lakes region & eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, & expressing appreciation for the United States’ complementary engagement.

    On Sudan, they expressed deep concern over the ongoing conflict and stressed the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire, unhindered humanitarian access, & the protection of civilians.

    https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260128/auc-chairperson-received-high-level-united-states-delegation

     

  23. 205

    US Secretary of State Marko Rubio on security guarantees for Ukraine:

    There’s a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it’s something that there’s general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop.

    And I’m not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post-war Ukraine. What I’m pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop. And the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.*

    Now, hopefully that’s going to change. Hopefully that is changing.

    *(Angela Merkel, Fredrik Reinfeldt, Mitterand and others)

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