2 dead and 15 injured after Russian attack on Odesa – Russian losses

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Russia’s overnight terror attack hit several residential buildings in Odessa with drones, a married couple was killed and another 15 people were injured. Among other things, a three-story building was hit, resulting in six people being injured and a fire breaking out. Read more at Kyiv Independent.

Russian losses in Ukraine

Today’s report on Russian losses is somewhat lower than in recent days, with just under a thousand KWIA, slightly fewer artillery and soft vehicles, but it is still high losses considering this is just a single day. Considering how long this has been going on, it is surprising that Russia still manages to conduct the war. Of course, much of the equipment can be repaired and put back into the war, and wounded and injured soldiers can also return to the front, but even if the losses were only half as high, it is still an enormous amount.
Recently, it seems that the costs of the war are finally seriously starting to take their “toll” as information coming from Russia now shows that the Russian economy is worsening.

  • 910 KWIA
  • 4 Tanks
  • 4 AFVs
  • 32 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 2 Air defense systems
  • 1175 UAVs
  • 129 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

Here you can find all posts with Russian losses

Russian activities

The number of battles in today’s report is somewhat higher than the average since the beginning of the year (169/day) but can be considered quite normal.
The number of KAB is quite high but has been so for a long time; however, there are significantly fewer suicide drones, where the average has been over 9,000/day recently. Artillery attacks have been slowly decreasing for a long time, and although we have had some days with even lower numbers, 2,757 is among the lowest reported as far back as statistics exist. The current seven-day average is around 3,250.

  • 194 combat clashes
  • 83 air strikes
  • 277 KAB/CAB
  • 6,620 kamikaze drones
  • 2,757 shells (155 from MLRS)

SLAVA UKRAINI

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73 thoughts on “2 dead and 15 injured after Russian attack on Odesa – Russian losses”

  1. johan No.1

    Those of you who understand economics might be able to explain this: is it now being written that the mena countries are getting “FX swaplines” so they get USD?

    The consequence is either good or bad, and I don’t know this, so what does it mean?

    That they are in crisis is quite clear, but what does this do for the USD, for example?

    If it is good for the USA, it would explain why they tricked Iran into fighting oil infrastructure, but if it is bad for the USA, the backlash is welcome.

    1. MXT

      Repeating my answer from yesterday’s thread. 
      (Not that I knew how it worked, but I managed to find the information… 😄 )

      It’s not that they get any USD for free.

      During these crisis times, there can be a shortage of USD in a country (or several, of course, if it’s a bigger crisis).
      At the same time, banks, companies, the government, etc. may need to pay for imported goods, services, debts, etc. in USD, and if there is a shortage at the same time, it becomes a bit troublesome.

      A country’s central bank can then make a temporary, time-limited swap of parts of its foreign currency reserves and receive USD as compensation, which they can then distribute further in the economic system (to other banks). When the period expires, they swap back, usually at the same exchange rates as at the start (so no one profits or loses from fluctuations during the time). If the crisis continues, a new swap can be made.

      So it’s not a grant or a kind loan but simply a form of currency exchange to solve the shortage of access to USD in a country.

      The need to do a swap is also an indication that there are problems in the country, so the risk is that confidence in the country needing to do it decreases, which can worsen the problems as investments decline, etc.

      For the USD, it’s not a problem (it’s just a temporary exchange) but neither is it a direct advantage, though it does serve as proof that USD is the currency everyone needs.

    2. MXT

      Now the contributions to the blog are quite modest so it wouldn’t work financially, but otherwise got an idea that AI could monitor comments and if, for example, it starts with:
      Question to AI:

      Then it could go in and leave an answer via its own comment, just like it works in some forums.
      Then you might need to limit what types of questions it would be OK to answer of course and limit how long the answers it gives should be.

        1. MXT

          Ah, there is a huge difference between asking an AI for information that is already input into the language model and asking questions about a couple of thousand posts in a database.

          Those posts are not included in the AI’s LLM with learned material, so it cannot process them in the same way at all. 

          It is also not the case that you can easily train an AI just by submitting the posts and expecting it to work. It is a much more complicated process.

          So the AI will have to search through the material it is asked about, and in that case, a good search engine can basically provide equally good or even better answers. 

          What you can do is let an AI go through the material and index it with relevant metadata, keywords, etc., so that it can then find the right posts faster and more accurately and provide better answers more quickly. So, it’s not that it learns the material but prepares so that searching will be much faster later.

          But it still won’t be like when you ask ChatGPT a question about something it has in its LLM.

          It is constantly evolving, so it will surely be possible to solve this further on, and if you have the material, you can always improve the search capability.

          1. johan No.1

            Search engine or AI – now we have the specification fixed 👍

            lots of swish left so you can set it up.

            being able to search in the blog texts and comments will help a lot going forward

          2. alex

            Internally, smaller than the blog, but still, indexing has worked well.

            Saw an approach that is similar but maybe even more effective especially when a large part of the text is not as information-dense as in a blog. But I don’t think you want an RAG.

            https://gist.github.com/karpathy/442a6bf555914893e9891c11519de94f

            Just a thought – then you could probably let it run just on a simple license and push indexing in .md files of all posts in raw so it can then chew through building a wiki – might take some time 🙂

            1. MXT

              👍 Interesting, I will take a closer look later.

              Now I don’t have a sharp environment to run a local LLM, otherwise the idea with RAG was something I had in mind.

              Another was to use AI to create good metadata and then run SOLR or Elastic etc.

  2. johan No.1

    Next rumor – China is trying to get a trade agreement with the EU but we are holding back because of their support for Russia.

    And lastly, Chinese consumption is declining.

    No links there either, unfortunately, just flew by.

    Since we are going to have a financial crisis this autumn, the thought is that the country in the worst position will be hit the hardest?

    Will it be the USA, China, or the EU?

    1. Umlaut

      The USA probably has the highest fall height still, China has the most to lose economically, and the EU probably has the best finances but is governed through the Polish parliament (figuratively). China has the advantage, and disadvantage, that what the population wants is not an important factor, so the party can either run the country straight into hell, or take a long-term approach to get out of a crisis without thinking about the next election. The USA seems almost to be heading towards a China situation, or perhaps more of a Zimbabwe situation.

      1. johan No.1

        Well, Trump has created a lot of friction and the USA is not a dictatorship.

        The corruption alone would be grounds for incapacitation.

        Chinese people can get very angry, as we have seen with the mortgages, and there are many of them 😀

         

      2. CB500four

        Yes, Europe can come out of this with its honor (the economy) intact as long as we stick together, which the USA and Russia are doing everything to make difficult. However, we are heavily dependent on both Middle Eastern oil and Chinese products, but by forming new trade partners, we can manage quite well.

        China is handling the oil downturn okay and may have some advantages since they produce electric cars in large quantities, but they have the disadvantage of being so export-dependent that when the rest of the world throws off their spending pants, it is China that takes the biggest hit.

        The USA has been overtaken by China as a producer but has its own oil, which means they are not affected in the same way by the oil crisis. However, they are also affected by everyone else being impacted and thus stopping trade. Politically, Trump’s rampages have caused the rest of the world, except possibly Russia and a couple of other dictatorships, to start distancing themselves from the USA and seek other partners, which will hurt the USA in the long term.

  4. 205

    Up again according to the every-other-day pattern in Russian offensives and as a tendency was seen yesterday with ever lower peaks and troughs confirms this morning’s daily report that the current offensive is waning. The unlocalized presumed Ukrainian attacks instead rose to the high ratio of 0.55. What could the somewhat lower KWIA in the last 24 hours have to do with? Now 900 is still high and not far from the last days’ KWIA of just over 1000. The explanation may lie somewhere in supply/demand: when simulating fox – hare in a habitat, the kill rate goes down when the hares become fewer. That is, the Ukrainians may have cleared areas in the last week/weeks that are now beginning to be fully cleared and we see a decreasing KWIA originating from the unlocalized Ukrainian attacks, which have constantly been around 50-60 in the last week/weeks and probably driven high KWIA, despite sometimes low Russian attacks.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 4↗️
    S Slobozhansky 6
    Kupyansk 9💥
    Lyman 4
    Slovyansk 3
    Kramatorsk 0
    Kostjantynivka 18💥
    Pokrovsk 36💥💥
    Oleksandrivskij 12💥↗️
    Huliaipole 26💥💥↗️
    Orikhivsk 4↗️
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 3

    Localized 125↗️
    Unlocalized 69↗️
    Total 194↗️
    Ratio unloc/loc .55↗️

      1. 205

        Yes, count the majority of KWIA from these 69. AFU always reports KWIA in Pokrovsk in their 22 report, where yesterday at 22 they had 28 attacks, 45 eliminated ☠️ and 15 injured 🏥. A KWIA/localized-Russian attack ratio of 60/28=2.143. If we base it on the same KWIA/localized-Russian attack ratio in the morning report, we get that the localized attacks should have accounted for 

        125*2.143= approx. 270 KWIA. And the 69 unlocalized attacks thus for the rest 900-270=630 KWIA, which gives about 10 KWIA per unlocalized-Ukrainian attack.

    3. N Eklund

      If Ukraine launches a counterattack and clears perhaps RU in that section, will they go on the defensive instead of attacking? Does anyone have an idea of what it looks like further back on the RU side of the front? Do they have a good defense or have they invested in the idea that offense is the best defense?

  5. MXT

    Nonsense (after all, it’s Friday)

    Johan, you do realize you can’t keep doing this, right?
    By the way, did you return the corset?

    “A man in his 40s is being prosecuted for several crimes after secretly filming a large number of women in Ystad during their toilet visits, reports Ystads Allehanda.

    The man is said to have filmed women through a drilled hole in a public porta-potty, as well as filmed women who were sleeping or using the toilet in their homes. The man is also said to have secretly filmed women in the shower at a hostel in Stockholm, writes TT.

    The man has admitted to taking photographs but claims he had no intent. He is being prosecuted for serious home violations, sexual harassment, and offensive photography.”
    https://omni.se/smygfilmade-kvinnor-genom-hal-i-bajamaja-atalas/a/Oky8w3

    1. DenGamle

      I don’t think it was Johan. The man in question admitted to the photographing, and we all know that admitting his mistakes is not Johan’s strong suit.

    3. Jan W

      I wonder how the man will manage to claim a lack of intent. Does he mean that he did not intend to film the women at all? What will he then claim he was filming? Fly on the wall.

  6. MXT

    NATO intercepts Russian warplanes over the Baltic Sea almost every day. This is what the Romanian military chief Mihaita Marin told AP. He warns that the number of Russian provocations and violations in the region will increase due to spring weather and improved flying conditions.

    On Monday, planes from several NATO countries – including Sweden – scrambled to meet two Russian bombers. The bombers, equipped with missiles, remained in international airspace but were close to, among others, Finland, Estonia, and Poland.

    The Russian planes flew with their communication equipment turned off, a behavior that deviates from international flight regulations. The news agency has spoken with the French commander Alexandre, who does not rule out that Russia is “testing” NATO.

    – What we know is that we have to act every time. We cannot say ‘this is normal, we will let it pass this time.’
    https://omni.se/nato-moter-ryska-plan-over-ostersjon-nastan-dagligen/a/WvmRwd

    1. maggan

      We have plenty of available aircraft maintenance and almost a holiday, compared to ryz. Therefore, it’s good that they are testing us and wearing down their planes to no avail. Send more, the more the better, the fewer against Ukraine, I think.

      1. MXT

        You are absolutely right, it’s only good if they are up and working on the field. 👍

        Sooner or later, surely one of them will crash on its own as well, that has already happened a few times.

        Good for us too, better to keep an eye on real Russian planes than to run fake exercises.

  9. MXT

    “Satellite imagery shows Ukrainian (long) R360 Neptune missile strikes damaged at least 3 buildings at the Atlant Aero drone production plant in Taganrog. One structure was destroyed, with additional damage to nearby facilities and a container yard.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mk7wn24b7227

     

    “Additional footage from Taganrog, after Ukrainian long range missiles struck the ATLANT AERO aviation plant.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mk7wrbze3s27

  13. MXT

    Soon time for a new attack, but it is just as well to wait until they have managed to extinguish and started repairing because before that most of the operations will probably still be at a standstill.

    “New satellite imagery shows a large number of fuel tanks at the Tuapse refinery remain intact, while central sections are still obscured by ongoing fires.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mk6rvdgn3c2u

    1. alfaomega

      The best thing is probably to wait until they are almost finished with the repairs, and then bomb again. That way, a lot of spare parts are used up, which can be hard to get hold of, and it takes even longer before operations can function again. Then repeat…..

  16. MXT

    Russia’s central bank has now sold off 22 tons of gold. Just under one percent of their total gold reserve. Although it is a lot of money, there are probably too many holes for them to put the money into, so there will likely be more sales. It is also risky to sell off too much, as the little trust they have will probably disappear completely both among business partners and within the country.

    Previously, it was their welfare fund that sold gold, but there is probably not much left in it anymore, and it might look too bad if they completely empty it, so they probably don’t dare.

    The gold reserve alone would cover a few years of military expenses, but that is not the only problem they have right now, and as mentioned, they probably hardly dare to empty it completely, and it is not even certain that it is as large as they claim.

  17. 205

    Off topic MÖ

    Minor in Hormuz notwithstanding and the occasional rocket towards Israel from villages in Lebanon, a calm is spreading in the Middle East. Ceasefire in Iran and Lebanon. Peace talks.

    A deceitful calm. Much like when Johan has just thanked the Old Man for a compliment.

  18. Flurrevuppen

    The closing statement in “promise #3” in agenda 2025 might explain what Trump is up to in the Middle East?

    The next conservative President should go beyond merely defending America’s
    energy interests but go on offense, asserting them around the world. America’s
    vast reserves of oil and natural gas are not an environmental problem; they are the
    lifeblood of economic growth. American dominance of the global energy market
    would be a good thing: for the world, and, more importantly, for “we the people.”
    It’s not just about jobs, even though unleashing domestic energy production would
    create millions of them. It’s not just about higher wages for workers who didn’t
    go to college, though they would receive the raises they have missed out on for
    two generations. Full-spectrum strategic energy dominance would facilitate the
    reinvigoration of America’s entire industrial and manufacturing sector as we dis-
    entangle our economy from China. Globally, it would rebalance power away from
    dangerous regimes in Russia and the Middle East. It would build powerful alliances
    with fast-growing nations in Africa and provide us the leverage to counter Chi-
    nese ambitions in South America and the Pacific. Locally, it would drive billions
    of dollars of private investment to the communities that have been hammered by
    globalization since the 1990s. And it would clarify our intentions to Beijing that
    the next President can ensure that a large part of America’s reindustrialization is in
    the production of the equipment we will need to dissuade future foreign meddling
    with U.S. vital interests.

    2. Flurrevuppen

      As a matter of fact, the USA is also the second largest global producer of helium and thus gains a dominant position in the helium market when Qatar is out of the picture.

      Helium is apparently a necessary resource in semiconductor manufacturing. That is, the USA takes control over the semiconductor industry as well.

  19. fedtmule

    EU has control over the machines that manufacture the microchips.
    Without its bases in Europe, the USA cannot maintain or project power in the Middle East and Africa.
    The USA does not like the EU and the concept of increased European integration, as this erodes the USA’s influence both regionally and globally while the EU’s influence grows.
    It is time for the EU to step up, especially militarily, and begin to shed its dependence on the USA, starting primarily on the mental level.

    1. Pehr

      Exactly. High time to step up, not least mentally as you say.
      The same applies regarding our view of the Russian bastards. Russia is part of the EU’s sphere of interest. Not the other way around.

  20. N Eklund

    IRAN

    Aimen Dean on X:

    “As long as the Pakistan–Iran border stays open – letting sugar, rice, and essentials flow – and the Caspian shipping routes run at full capacity moving Chinese and Russian goods (and cash) into Iran, the so-called American blockade on Iranian ports is, at best, a half-blockade!”

    They lose some by not being able to sell oil, but if they are waiting for a collapse, they might have to wait a while. I saw a figure that they received more money from Shia Muslims supporting them (there is a tax) than what they earned from oil with the Strait of Hormuz open.

      1. MXT

        Agree, a real boost! 👍

        Good thing he spells even worse than me, otherwise I would have been overtaken!
        Or did he mean that the fat wasn’t green? (Haven’t had time to watch the movie).

  23. MXT

    Nonsense again!

    NOTE! Not domestic politics!
    Just a warning that you have to be careful when seeking help from influencers!
    (Neither Trump nor Israel should call me if they want help building their image!)

    “The influencer, entrepreneur, and Moderate Party advisor Isabella Löwengrip has received harsh criticism for a statement in DN that women do not know how government formation works.

    She herself has no idea either. At least, that is what influencer Amilia Stapelfeldt, who has also been invited to the Moderates, claims. She believes that Löwengrip’s statement about other women rather reflects how little she knows herself.

    – The Moderates have been working their tails off for three and a half years to turn this ship around. I see it more as some kind of internal sabotage that she is doing. She destroys more than she contributes, says Stapelfeldt to SvD.”
    https://omni.se/lowengrips-m-arbete-kritiseras-internt-sabotage/a/0pvQJA

  24. MXT

    I don’t believe their inflation figures at all, and the question is whether the interest rate cuts will help them get the economy going. It will, of course, be a bit cheaper to borrow to afford food..
    There was some figure earlier that showed that as much as 30% of the banks’ lending was doomed (i.e., that they had not been paying off the loans for a long time).

    “The Central Bank of Russia on April 24 cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%, offering relief to the Russian economy while warning of continued uncertainty.

    The move marks the eighth consecutive rate cut from record highs previously imposed to curb inflation driven by wartime spending amid the invasion of Ukraine.

    Russia’s inflation rate slowed from 5.9% in March to 5.7% as of April 20, with the central bank forecasting a decline to the annual rate of 4.5–5.5% in 2026.

    The regulator expects the benchmark rate to remain between 14% and 14.5% per annum this year and between 8% and 10% in 2027.”
    https://kyivindependent.com/russias-central-bank-slashes-key-rate-to-14-5/

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