The Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai was attacked by Ukraine during the night, and residents have reported extensive explosions. Images and videos show a large fire has broken out. It is reported, among other things, that two large tanks have caught fire. The governor of Krasnodar Krai has confirmed the attacks and stated that one person has been killed, but without making any more detailed statements. Read more at Kyiv Independent here and see a couple of posts from Bluesky here and here. The fire is raging violently, and it is likely that the fire will spread.
Russian losses in Ukraine
Today’s loss report looks good with over 1,000 KWIA and high losses of artillery and soft vehicles.
- 1050 KWIA
- 2 Tanks
- 2 AFVs
- 72 Artillery systems
- 1 Air defense system
- 1,427 UAVs
- 147 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
- 1 Special equipment
Russian activities
- 206 combat clashes
- 71 aviation strikes
- 253 KAB/CAB controlled air bombs
- 7,767 kamikaze drones
- 2,916 shells (including 85 from MLRS).
SLAVA UKRAINI
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“13/142 drones shot down 👊”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjvs46x3mc2j
There I choked, 13 out of 142, the worst result in a long time. Something serious must have gone wrong.
Luckily, it’s supposed to be 113/142.
“Occupied Melitopol overnight 💥👀”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjvscop4w22j
Den Gamle: what is “busy”?
“❗️On the night of April 18-19, 2026, the special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of 🇺🇦Ukraine “Prymary” (“Ghosts”) struck two large landing ships of the 🇷🇺Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol
— the Ropucha-class landing ship Yamal (Project 775, ~$80 million) and the Alligator-class landing ship Nikolay Filchenkov (Project 1171, $70 million).
The unit also destroyed an enemy Podlyot-K1 radar station ($5 million). Both ships have been put out of action. ”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mjvsb3lbb22q
“🔥Large landing ships and Russian radar in Crimea – “Prymary” of GUR hit the aggressor’s high-value targets VDK of project 775 “Yamal” and VDK of project 1171 “Nikolai Filchenkov”.
▪️ “Yamal”. $80 million.
▪️”Nikolai Filchenkov”. $70 million.
▪️”Podlyot-K1″ radar station. $5 million.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjvrtljhi22j
“Tuapse 🤩😻🔥”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjvruzdwac2j
“Tuapse refinery 🔥” Film:
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjvsszzwes2j
Off-Topic Kriget i Iran och oljepriset.
“Priset på olja stiger på nytt och handlas åter över 95 dollar för ett fat brent.
Uppgångarna kommer bland annat efter att Iran återigen valt att stänga Hormuzsundet och att USA meddelat att man beskjutit och bordat ett Iranflaggat fraktfartyg under helgen.
– Om saker och ting fortsätter som de är, kommer man förmodligen att se en gradvis uppgång till cirka 105–115 dollar, säger Haris Khurshid, investeringschef på Karobaar Capital LP till Bloomberg News.
Innan kriget i Mellanöstern inleddes i slutet av februari handlades oljan runt 70 dollar fatet.”
https://omni.se/oljepriset-stiger-pa-nytt-efter-helgens-attacker/a/q6yqnE
“Ungerns avgående premiärminister Viktor Orbán säger att han kommer fortsätta hålla hårt i sitt veto mot EU:s miljardlån till Ukraina, så länge den ryska oljan inte släpps på. Det skriver han på X.
Men samtidigt har Orbán fått signaler via Bryssel att Ukraina kan vara redo att återuppta oljeleveranser via Druzhba-ledningen redan i dag, vilket skulle kunna få honom att vända i frågan.
”När oljeleveranserna återupptas kommer vi inte längre att stå i vägen för att godkänna lånet. Utbetalningen av lånet innebär ingen ekonomisk börda eller förpliktelse för Ungern.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyj sa tidigare i april att han kommer att reparera oljeledningen som skadades i slutet av januari, efter påtryckningar från EU.”
https://omni.se/orban-kan-vanda-i-fragan-om-miljardlanet-till-ukraina/a/Exl165
Offensive in Donetsk, and a bit in the north. Is this a temporary peak as has often happened recently? If so, it is lower than the last peak (see graph above). Or is it the beginning of something more protracted, possibly escalating? The ground is probably stable now? The answer will likely come in the next few days.
One Ukrainian attack per two Russian. Relatively high ratio seen over the last 12 months. A development that came during the autumn.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
S Slobozhansky 10💥↗️
Kupyansk 10💥↗️
Lyman 6
Slovyansk 4
Kramatorsk 2
Kostjantynivka 21💥
Pokrovsk 42💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 4↘️
Huliaipole 33💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 2
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 5
Sum sectors 139↗️
Unlocalized 67↗️
Total 206↗️
“🦅 Meanwhile, FP-1/2 has already launched a new raid on Russian facilities.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mjvtxqbvzc2d
Massive retaliation is a doctrine. It can be observed preventively. It works so that the one who attacks/threatens to attack is aware of the consequences.
Users of the doctrine: Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Greece, Romania, Iceland, among others via NATO. Israel, USA.
Hamas was well aware of the doctrine. And it also applies when the attacker is martyrs and has the population’s mandate to act with risk of consequences for their own population.
A doctrine is stronger than a policy. It is hardcoded into the user’s defense DNA.
Sweden can abandon the doctrine by leaving NATO and never cooperating with the organization again. This gives Sweden an opportunity to develop its own defense doctrine. Play dead? Turn the other cheek? Reverse / swap the positions of the road signs? Proportional response?