10:28
Western Ukraine will soon get refugee camps that work, food, healthcare, etc. quite soon, it’s weeks away.
They will deny Russia airspace west of the Dnieper (not Kherson yet but where it is calm).
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In eastern Ukraine, civilians are fleeing westward so fewer civilian casualties and Ukraine will now build up its defense forces to the max. The war in the east will be a bloodbath but by the end of summer at the latest Russia will probably be kicked out feet first from all Ukrainian territory, if not earlier.
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A bigger intervention than that is hardly needed, maybe Poland decides to send a couple of brigades and aircraft on its own accord and then it can’t be blamed on NATO so that would work. Something I hope for.
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More air defense is probably the most important thing now, it holds Ukraine back on the ground.
10:29
Poland’s Prime Minister, “you don’t negotiate with Nazis, you fight them”.
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1511086558383857667
10:36
Now comes the reaction to Bucha and videos are posted of Ukrainians shooting wounded Russians, etc. Shit happens in war and these are soldiers who after the recent weeks of havoc don’t deserve better. In the beginning, Ukraine received surrendering Russians with coffee and buns but they chose to escalate and must face the consequences. For PR purposes, maybe the Ukrainians should not torture them too much but settle for summary execution and shots to the back of the head.
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The TikTok Chechens never disappoint and have a video of a Russian prisoner titled “pig” who stammers out a sentence and it turns into a resounding Allahu Akbar and fists in the air. One can only hope Kadyrov’s Chechens don’t survive this because they are among the nastiest soldiers there are. The Wagner group too. The story of the five-year-old who was raped, tortured, and murdered in front of his mother who was then released by Kadyrov’s Chechens is probably the worst thing one can do in a war, it is peak evil and a story one never forgets.
10:38
A hell of a mistake by the Kremlin to formally confirm that western Ukraine is no longer contested. Since they still call it a special operation and the countries are not formally at war, Ukraine can invite anyone to western Ukraine without Russia being able to object.
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Now it’s probably more a question of how long the sluggish EU will take to act but Poland probably can’t be held back much longer.
10:44
My take on Russia is that they will collectively have to bear this for a long time ahead unless they carry out a thorough revolution and purge a couple of levels of oppressors. If they don’t do that, they must accept that as Russians they are pariahs.
11:03
I believe it is not Ukraine’s strength on the ground that prevents opening up towards Mariupol but Russian air and helicopters that deny them that. Considering the massacre so far, I’m starting to feel that Russia should be denied airspace around Mariupol for a week and let Ukraine open up the encirclement and evacuate everyone they can. After that, the Russians have brought forward too much air defense for it to be possible.
The staff knows that if they roll south, losses from air and helicopters will be too high, there are 4 mechanized brigades along the southern front and God knows how much infantry.
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This is best done by the Polish Air Force going all in and NATO forward basing equivalent aircraft to Poland, I don’t think there is a shortage of volunteer Polish pilots for this mission.
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Now I’m not so dumb that I don’t understand that a keyboard warrior is not the first with that thought and just hope it’s done before Mariupol falls. Even if the video of surrendering marine soldiers is probably fake, it stung to have to consider a loss.
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The Russians are throwing everything they have at Kherson and Donbass so the southern front can probably be breached with manageable losses.
12:44
The defenders in Mariupol probably don’t have much life left assuming this is not an advanced psyops, there are many different films of dead, captured, equipment and places they should have held. It seems that the pocket one of the marine battalions held has collapsed. There are 2-3 pockets left but now the pressure on them is increasing and it could become a domino effect.
If I have interpreted this correctly, it is not Azovstal or the port that has fallen but a pocket in the built-up area. One can hope that Azovstal and the port are easier to defend.
I guess there are about a thousand defenders left but have now seen pictures of dead marines from TOS-1 and the smaller the area the defenders move in, the easier it is to knock them out with this weapon.
13:02
The Putinists have probably made another mistake, they are now parading the corpses of dead Ukrainians from TOS-1 in triumph, charred bodies.
It is a weapon that is probably questionable and with a little goodwill could fall under the subject of war crimes in the future when the mills of justice (quite expensive) have ground for a while.
13:03
Now we know where the Russians have wreaked havoc the worst, below from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
”Last night in Moshchun, 23 km northwest of Kyiv, soldiers of the 72nd Ukrainian main center of psychological operations conducted another staged filming of civilians allegedly killed by the violent actions of Russian troops – for distribution through Western media, the Russian Defense Ministry reports.
Similar events are now organized by the Ukrainian special services in Sumy, Konotop and other cities, the Russian military department adds”.
13:16
This was well point 1 in my post yesterday, go as hard as possible against the columns now heading to eastern Ukraine and here one can say that Ukraine delivers.
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1511295050269048839
14:38
Now it’s probably soon time to go back to war-related news full-time but one video lingers.
It is some kind of evacuation from Mariupol where women and children stand by a BTR and a group of Russians are milling around. Towards the end of the video the camera moves to the side door and there sits an assumed mother and 2-3 girls in their early teens who are very happy to get a ride.
Considering how it has looked in general, I can’t let it go, the childlike happy look that they don’t have to walk all the way and what might possibly happen after that…
10:19
Yesterday Russia lost the PR war –
-Ukraine made sure that the world media saw the massacre in Bucha and it made an impact.
-Russia countered by saying it was fake news, that Russia had not killed a single civilian and demanded a meeting at the UN on the matter.
-Western PR quickly released credible satellite images showing dead civilians in the streets when Bucha was under Russian occupation. We know exactly which communities the Russians occupied and when, partly from Ukrainian communiques but also from Russian ones.
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We should not underestimate this, now the whole world knows that Russia is lying. Every journalist with some self-respect will get season tickets from satellite companies and scour all small villages under Russian occupation and post about new war crimes. The funniest thing is that now when the order goes out to all occupation forces to bury all the bodies in the streets to cover up the traces, that will also appear on satellite images in a couple of weeks, this is impossible to hide.
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For the PR war, from yesterday it’s game over for Russia, what a knockout victory 🙂
Soon they will be out of the Security Council and a safe zone will be established in western Ukraine staffed with international troops.