09:30
Took a look at the map and west of Izyum is easily defensible terrain and Ukraine has “special purposes,” Airborne and tank brigades along that line so they won’t go westward. East of Izyum there is a river and then Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Now the Russians have reached Barvinkove with advanced units as I understand it, so it looks like they intend to encircle Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and apparently stop being Russians and not throw themselves straight at the cities in the best Stalin-style. In that area, it is farmland and the Ukrainians are dug into trenches like WW1 in more difficult terrain to defend, so advantage to the Russians south of Izyum. Since they won’t completely stop being Russians, they will surely throw everything where they feel they can make progress, which will be in the area south of Izyum with the hope of a gigantic encirclement of the entire southern stalemate line. It is a victory that will likely make Putin salivate and the pressure will be very hard on the commanders in the field to take risks to achieve this, all in the red.
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In parallel with this, the 92nd Mechanized and 4th Tank brigade are advancing eastward from Malynivka, I think they have passed the natural obstacle. They are presumably heading towards Kupiansk and north of their advance route there are several rivers, a natural defense to the north that can easily be defended by infantry at company size with some tank platoon assigned, and Kupiansk is the only supply for the entire offensive against Izyum. From Kiev, a couple of suitable brigades are probably moving eastward to reinforce this advance if needed, now that there is no Russian left west of Kharkov. The old defensive lines to the north are occupied by National Guard brigades. Probably 3-4 mechanized and armored units are on their way east.
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The Russians are not completely stupid so they will try to take out Kharkov where they have now slept, eaten, and reloaded magazines again for a week or so but they will not be able to attack the advance east of Kharkov because they do not have enough graspable units, they want to start by taking out Kharkov, not encircle east of Kharkov.
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You can probably guess how this will end in a maximum of one month 🙂
09:47
If the Russians have now completely left western Ukraine both by air and on the ground, the EU should promptly send a humanitarian mission to the area just west of Kiev, like Hostomel or maybe Zhytomyr.
Huge barracks camps with heating and canteens, field hospitals and their own close protection + all types of air defense. You have to take the risk that the Russians might launch a few missiles and weigh that against the extremely terrible publicity it will give them.
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All fleeing Ukrainians are gathered there in a safe environment because right now in Europe they are in refugee accommodations that are pure crime scenes and which so far have mostly been populated by men precisely because they are so dangerous and now it is women and children without men who come there. Injured Ukrainian soldiers are given the best care available, there is an army of psychologists, daycare, stuffed animals and everything needed to ease this trauma. Schools are opened and civilians are allowed to work in distribution centers, food production and everything else that will still be needed for another year or so so they have something to do.
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If as a parent you can just get a room with a toilet and kitchenette that can be locked and dare to leave your child at daycare and go to a day job, much is probably gained in starting to process this Russian abuse.
10:49
Eastern Ukraine is basically leveled and 4 million have left Ukraine and half the population are internally displaced, or was it 30%.
When you say Haiti it has a slightly negative connotation 🙂
I mean buildable barracks, Lego-like, that you put together into temporary communities for maybe 10,000 people and a couple of such in a geographic area. This then primarily opens up for an organization on Ukrainian soil that does not exist today and where Western units can be smuggled in with a protective function. Finally, the entire border against Belarus is defended.
10:56
This thing about the crematories is starting to grate a bit as it is being written. Maybe they were not to hide Russian losses as we thought in the beginning but were part of the plan? We know the Russians came with death lists, we know the idea is some kind of ethnic cleansing after COUNTLESS articles and statements. Most recently that the army is the same as Azov, Nazis.
And then mobile crematories on top of that.
For me, this is unleashed communism/Nazism/fascism and we can thank the gods that Putin has made so many mistakes because his endgame is to run a Ukraine with all of Europe.
11:13
What I really want is for Mariupol to be able to hold out…
Maybe Ukraine should run a better version of Dien Bien Phu and try to reinforce with helicopter transport and infiltration? The morale boost for the defenders if new units join can probably not be overstated.
Paratroopers are suicide, even this keyboard warrior understands that, but maybe at night over Azovstal and at low altitude, you rise before the drop to 300m and the plane is written off but they managed to jump.
It would go a long way if you got in 500 rested elite soldiers.
Alternatively, carry out larger coordinated infiltrated raids deep against Bilmak, Tokmak or similar to create unrest, strike from four directions at night and then back into the shadows.
Surely it is free war on steroids inside the southern front line but right now the pressure is almost crushing against Mariupol and something must be done here so the city does not fall and as soon as the city falls these BTGs turn north. It is quite clear that the Russians have taken over a base area as they have been able to film buildings, piles of dead soldiers in rooms, gear etc. even if the prisoners were fake news because the marine battalion themselves confirmed that.
15:45
At some point I wrote that I thought Mariupol would have 50,000 dead when the city opened up and felt that it would be a staggering number and that I was exaggerating. Right now the feeling is that if that many have died there it is almost a victory…
16:42
Putting together all the fuel depots, ammunition depots and other things burning like bonfires right now, Ukraine and the West (convinced!) are probably doing everything to deny the Russians fuel for the offensive in two weeks.
Wait for the next blast in Rostov-na-Donu..
We have also seen some videos of destroyed convoys and it is the armor on the way to Izyum and Donbass that is picked off before it arrives.
If this pace continues, it will soon be infantry combat for the Russians 🙂
19:06
In pro-Russian media, there are images of the advance towards Kharkov and Donbass, and it is really third-rate troops we see here in uniforms and many trucks now. Then some armored columns, so there have probably still been some reserves to draw from.
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You can see that the pocket north of Horlivka, which goes via Severdonetsk up to Izyum, Ukraine can conduct a delaying battle there and straighten the line towards Kramatorsk without it becoming a breakthrough, and every meter will cost the Russians a few tanks.
09:12
The Wikipedia map is a bit slower, I find, and therefore probably the most accurate (locked editing), and now it is completely blue down to Kharkov except just west of Sumy, which is somewhat incredible and no one except Kremlin trolls probably believes that the Russians have given up all these areas unless they were forced to, and it has NOTHING to do with an offensive against Donbass but rather that they could not hold the entire front. Now, of course, they are trying to achieve some goal and then it will be Donbass instead.