08:45
Now the pro-Russian media have embarrassed themselves again, a film of the “leader” of Azov who in a video talks about 5 weddings in the battalion.
What I take from this is that he is, if not optimistic, then definitely a soldier with combat value, his face is reasonably clean and he is articulate.
—
They also state that Ukraine is defending – “Azov-Stal, the Ilyich plant and in the area of the embankment and the seaport” – which are the three formidable areas to defend, read the Red October tractor factory in Stalingrad.
The area they hold is also perfect, quite large, complex terrain and they have the water at their back.
09:37
As long as Mariupol holds out, they tie up six Ukrainian BTGs and lots of reconnaissance, TikTok Chechens, DPR SOF and Spetsnaz. As the blog writes, drones came in yesterday and a week ago they lost a helicopter and I guess they are constantly reinforcing with more volunteer soldiers Dien Bien Phu style (my guess).
They are thus able to hold out due to open supply and reinforcement and as someone wrote, it is certainly possible to infiltrate on foot. It has also been rumored (emphasis on rumored!) that there are French SOF there.
—
Now Zelensky went out and said that they were allowed to surrender at their own discretion (was that really the case or psyops?) and we have guessed that the situation is dreadful with TOS-1, MLRS, naval artillery, air and 14,000 Russians storming. The first week there was a column with 200 tanks heading towards Mariupol. Then came the fake video with prisoners…
—
Now we have a video with a happy Azov commander talking about weddings, drones that have come in with two happy soldiers and the marine battalion has denied that they have surrendered and we know that they still hold the most easily defensible areas and that supply works.
—
Maybe we should reinterpret the whole situation with Mariupol, it has strategic value as it sits like a big block down south and ties up large Russian units. Ukraine may have been reinforcing Mariupol all along and supplying the city so it can hold out, it must have been part of the planning that they would be encompassed by the advance from the east but now it happened very early and from the south instead (due to corruption one might guess…).
Some analyst has said that “Mariupol can hold out for several more months” but that gets drowned out by “Mariupol will surrender soon” just like they said about Kiev in the beginning.
I think a contributing factor here is that all you see of advancing units in Mariupol are the TikTok Chechens and DPR SOF. Ethnically Russian units largely avoid fighting in towns so of those surrounding Mariupol, maybe a few thousand participate in combat.
09:53
Now Putin has welcomed the absolute worst scum to rampage in Ukraine, the Far East division is responsible for Bucha, Wagner, TikTok Chechens, various groups from Syria with a terrible reputation and then the whole rhetoric from Russia is ultra Nazism/communism/fascism and the TikTok Chechens chant Allah Akbar with a clenched fist in the air while cutting the throats of five-year-olds. A couple of African countries have promised to send their worst child murderers to Ukraine but we have not yet seen African soldiers in action?
—
What I take from this is that when a country goes into any -ism- (Islamism was not included above) it gets quite lively. Anyone who wants can take from this war that it is an Islamic crusade against Christians, Nazis so we must ban SD, communists so we must ban V and so on as fits an agenda.
—
I think Europe has done quite right and then one should highlight the subversive activities that Russia has conducted, SD, Fria Tider, Samnytt, MP, feminism, the environmental movement, autonomous left, refugee crisis, energy crisis and all that – it can become really calm in Europe if Putin falls 🙂
09:55
Forgot the peace movement.
09:58
The evidence for Russian genocide will be absolutely overwhelming, it will be impossible for the Russian propaganda machine to hold water here.
Right now they are starting to bury and cremate their atrocities and probably have not quite realized yet that it also gets caught on satellite images.
Now the EU and the world have just stepped on the gas and thousands of lawyers will make their living from this war and everything will be scrutinized.
It will not be easy for Russia to ask for lifted sanctions or to come back into the fold again without a revolution where the entire leadership hangs by their feet from a gas station.
10:01
The rhetoric is much stronger now against Putin – Crimea and Donbass will never be recognized, Ukraine shall be helped to strategic victory and Russia shall be held fully responsible for all its actions.
-A little less than a week ago old Biden got criticized for wanting to depose Putin, things move fast in hockey 🙂
10:36
10:18, I am disappointed in myself for not having understood how this would play out. LW has always said this and a Finnish friend of mine said on day 1 – “when Slavs beat each other up it becomes a bloodbath, just wait”. Now I am old enough that my opinion on how the Russians have acted will not be able to be influenced/changed and also how a Nazi state takes shape but it still feels like it is Ukraine that is paying because far too many have refused to believe that Russia is our time’s Third Reich. Eventually we will have China to take a stand on and we can only hope that we have learned from this.
08:40
I know I am last because I stick to the Wikipedia maps which seem to be the most conservative, now all terrain west of Kharkiv has been retaken and they are pushing eastward in Kharkiv oblast.
—
Borova and Malynivka are contested which means they are nibbling at the supply line to the entire Izyum offensive.
—
Considering that the whole of western Ukraine is liberated, the National Guard brigades should retake their old defensive positions and reserves can be sent eastward, there were some mech, armor and elite brigades left around Kiev and it is likely possible to launch a counteroffensive eastward from Kharkiv while the city itself is defended.