12:46
UAwardata has updated their maps and they correlate quite well with the BTG summary we got a week ago. We also have reports of deep defense along the southern front in the past week.
There have not been intense battles in this context along the southern front and Kherson (meaning that Russian BTGs have gone to zero by drowning or similar). At least near Kherson, these are the elite units they started with, 9 BTGs are marked there and these are the endangered VDV, guards armor, marines, spetsnaz, etc. A rather sad list of competent units defending in built-up areas with open fields around. Along the southern front I don’t know if they have rotated in exhausted units or not. Along the southern front there are 13 BTGs.
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Right now 777 is positioned at Izyum and along the front towards Severedonetsk, they started at Kharkov, then Izyum and finally Bilohorivka and have left quite a nice power plant street of destruction behind them, I would say. Liveuamap at least has 777 marked for Izyum.
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The southern front is no longer the weak point and Kherson has quite a high density of defense. The same map has 5 UAF brigades along Kherson and you remember that brigade that was supposed to stand behind in the shadows at Zaporozny that I have mentioned a couple of times, it turned out to be the 128th Mountain brigade, that swamp interpretation delivered 🙂
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If we take this unit map as truth, after looking at the lineup, it is my opinion that the southern front between Kamyianske – Hulyiapole is no longer a weak point because there are 13 BTGs over a relatively limited area prepared in deep defense. Ukraine’s advantage at Kherson is 2:1 rather than 4:1. That would then explain why Ukraine has not attacked and that the window to quickly strike along the southern front is closed. Then it becomes Plan B, that it takes a little longer 🙂
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If one is allowed to speculate, and one is, then the delivery of artillery tubes is critical here. Now it is not only the 5 battalions 777 on their tour that are available but a few hundred more have been delivered and destination two should be Kherson-Zaporoznye at the two artillery brigades that have been brought forward. They HAVE been working on the rear for a while and there is NOTHING inside the built-up area of Kherson of importance yet, there have been 1-2 contacts in the past week but I have not understood if they were Russian sorties or Ukrainian attacks against Kherson.
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Now suddenly the bridges over the Dnieper are interesting again (as the blogger wrote yesterday) because Ukraine’s best chance to break the southern front is to pound the BTG in Kherson and then try to cross the Dnieper either on existing bridges or pontoon bridges. You need to cross the river at 5-6 places and this is preceded by infiltration of SOF/recon/national battalions that can hold the bridgeheads at an early stage. I don’t know what Ukraine has for wading capacity but lighter inflatable boats to ferry infantry are needed.
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You need artillery tubes, okay water flow in the Dnieper, have gathered SOF/recon, air defense, pontoon bridges and luck. Once you have crossed the Dnieper you are behind/under all deep defense on the southern front and the defensive line they have really worked hard to dig straight and deep is worthless 🙂
14:12
Looking at what would be strategically smart, it is to try to break the southern front before the Russians have established deep defense and fully fortified Crimea. Donbass is then wedged between Ukrainian territory north of the area that can strike at supply routes and south near Rostov-on-Don and over time it falls.
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This should also be done before the Russians have brought in too many reserves but right now they must think about defense of Belgorod and the area east of the Oskil river north of the Slovyansk-Severedonetsk line which Ukraine will retake at a leisurely pace from now. They must also think about Donbass proper where Ukraine keeps up the pressure.
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Mid-July sounds late, then you are about a month before the 3-6 month time frame for Russia to go for a round 3 and then they should have scraped together their last available units for an attack, a slightly accelerated schedule would be appropriate. Then it is, as said, very exciting because they have already declared offensive operations at Kharkov and Izyum so what does this mean, “active counteroffensive” I interpret as a real fire fest at least. Such statements make one really happy because they are official statements and signal that the critical mass is in Ukraine’s favor and that they can build up capability while defending. Or, actually they can build up more capability while conducting offensive operations.
15:43
That is why you need 5-6 simultaneous crossing points, 3 fixed and 2-3 pontoon as well as small boats, I can’t recall the name but you know what I mean. Then you should get over enough to establish a bridgehead and then you can repair knocked-out bridges, resupply and push outward. If you do like the Russians and put one bridge at a time it will probably go like up at Severedonetsk. The Russians still have a long reaction time so there is probably quite a large window before they start to cluster on the bridges.
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I have quite a lot of confidence in the new artillery tubes and think we have seen good results on how it has gone for buried Russians when they arrived. Now I also understand that it is a tall order to shoot away 7 Russian BTGs in Kherson without damaging any houses but you don’t have to do a Russian here and wipe out kilometer squares but you have to use the right ammunition where you can. To have the slightest chance to take Crimea (which one might have already written off) you need to deny the Kherson-Russians retreat and then get behind the southern front. Everything you pull back you dig in somewhere else on a smaller area.
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If that sounded too optimistic it was hidden in the wall of text in this sentence “That would then explain why Ukraine has not attacked and that the window to quickly strike along the southern front is closed. Then it becomes Plan B, that it takes a little longer 🙂”
For me that means I don’t believe there will be offensive operations before the artillery tubes have arrived and preparations are complete and right now they don’t seem to be there and according to Erik above mid-July is apparently when something exciting is supposed to happen.
10:25
I think I have figured out what the Russians are up to right now and I must ask to change my stance regarding Severedonetsk. Since I never bother to thoroughly read things that fly by, I hadn’t reflected on the fact that “Russia is intensifying its attempts to take Luhansk Oblast,” it didn’t feel important when they didn’t control Donetsk Oblast but I forgot about Mission Creep and that it has been a few weeks since last time… We know that they very much want to take Azovstal so Mariupol counts as a complete win.
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If you go to Google and type Luhansk oblast, the only part they do not control is between Popasna and Seversk, and on the “wrong side” lies Severedonetsk 🙂 Right now it is a small piece of farmland and a city in eastern Ukraine that deny the Russians their final version of a win in the war. It is also probably one of the worst killing grounds in history, a bit after the Normandy beaches, so partly they will never get that piece, they will bleed BTG at the rate they enter and we know where they will be messing around in the near future.
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This must be adjusted almost in real time after the Russians’ constant mission creep, but now they have probably reached the end of it, Severedonetsk is the key to denying the Russians a win and trying to freeze the war. Hold Severedonetsk.