11:55
Considering the number of drones that have been used up in the daily lottery, I am inclined to believe this. It will also be difficult for the Russians to build new ones with sanctions unless China starts sending drones.
The Russians are losing their real-time reconnaissance capability and Ukraine’s is increasing exponentially.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532270510276497408?t=jCF-eri78xK1cCCB0WzEjA&s=19
12:08
They had them in the Yugoslav war but when you get the same effect with something that hangs over your shoulder, it has probably taken the same path as video rental stores. The tank has a different function and is still needed.
Something that is probably also starting to disappear are the guided PV robots where you have to have eyes on the target all the time when it became fire and forget.
Already when I did my military service, we thought tanks were mostly big targets and that infantry with anti-tank weapons or RPGs was enviable because they could control their lifespan.
17:01
From Gammelsvenskby (whoever it was in the thread who posted the link first)
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We have not had contact with Gammalsvenskby in the last 24 hours.
The last we heard was that it was relatively calm. The new potatoes are ready, but due to the occupation it is not possible to sell anything, as buyers cannot get to or from the area. The strawberries in the neighboring villages are also ripe but cannot be sold for the same reason.
We received a message from our friends in Kherson that the occupation forces yesterday disconnected the Ukrainian mobile and internet operators in Kherson region, where the village is also included.
The occupiers want to connect the townspeople to the Russian mobile and internet network of poor quality. They are selling Russian SIM cards, but everyone who buys must show their passports which they photograph. Ukrainians in Kherson are afraid to show their passports and do not want to switch to Russian mobile communication. But there is no choice if they want to communicate with the outside world.
We have also received reports from friends in free Ukraine that a Ukrainian offensive is underway north of Gammalsvenskby, some Russian helicopters and fighter jets have been shot down. The latest news says that 20 villages north of the village have been liberated by the Ukrainian army in the last 24 hours.
19:42
Johan is slowly starting to get the feeling that you no longer need to cheer Ukraine on to victory from a disadvantage because they are getting pretty good at winning this war themselves. The last point in my playbook that I need to check off is the offensive from Zaporoznye down to Melitopol, then the battle is won which (over time) will win the war, everything else is noise.
The Russians will try to steal a page from Ukraine’s playbook and attack down towards Sumy and Kharkov again but we all know how that will go, slightly better than the sailors who now have to steer the rusty T62s that have been ordered to block the breakthrough in Kherson.
19:54
Right now you get a pretty good picture of the situation from where the Russians are shelling with artillery and so far it’s not good. Snihurivka seems to be contested at least. Then the defense writes something quite interesting, “In the Kryvyi Rih direction, the enemy is forced to defend its unprepared positions” which means they have forced the defense to retreat and now they stand in a settlement and can be taken out during the day with artillery.
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Fairly sure there are Russian troops north of Kryvyi Rih who cannot retreat down to Kherson now, how many is unclear.
10:56
The pre-combat against Dayydiv Brid linked in the blog is an incredibly important calibration for our guesses on how we think this war will go.
They have reconned fixed targets and then targets in real-time from drones (the car that drove) and then strike with guided ammunition, this happens during the day. At night, some battalion from a suitable brigade with night combat equipment moves forward and they take a settlement and then work their way forward settlement by settlement without stopping.
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At Kharkov, they probably worked the same way and at Izyum the Russians had lined up at least company-sized in some kind of vehicle fortresses making them even easier to knock out. Now these are three areas along a very long front but once they have started this at Zaporoznye, Ukraine controls quite a large part of the front lines. Crimea can really only proceed the same way if they try to defend in the settlements down from the mainland. You have to deny the Russian navy from lobbing in Kalibr but you have to have something for all the Harpoons.
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Eventually, the red team will be sitting in the trenches sulking inside the circle Mariupol – Donetsk – Horlivka – Luhansk – Ukrainian border and that’s where Solros2022 Himars really comes into the picture and can stand at a safe distance under its LV umbrella and knock out fixed targets as soon as they can within that area. That is probably the area that will be called the final battle and it hasn’t really played out yet and will take its time but it can’t end any other way than with grilled BTGs.