11:01
What you write has already been understood by Eastern Europe and yes, everyone should send everything because right now the Russians basically have zero offensive capability anywhere else and the more they lose in Ukraine the worse it gets.
For Sweden’s part, our air force and navy are basically enough, the rest can be put on heavy transport to Ukraine and we get publicity for our excellent weapon systems now that NATO is to be armed with Western weapons.
11:32
Yes, it is a bargaining chip that is about to break and when Putin has lost Melitopol and the Kerch bridge is a twisted steel skeleton, a grinning Zelensky sits with a whole stack of markers on his side of the table and a sour Putin sits looking at a single marker in front of him wondering if he even still has it soon.
Donbass proper is what will be difficult and where the Russians can endlessly push in reinforcements so to reach that area Ukraine needs to disrupt the supply on a large scale.
12:12
Yes, I also don’t want to die on this hill but one of the most absurd things this year was when prominent debaters and opinion makers who have been pro-migration, not infrequently immigrants themselves, started calling Ukrainians luxury refugees and that they had white privilege and that it would make things harder for real refugees.
It felt, if nothing else, extremely ungrateful now when they themselves have had such a great chance in their new country that they have become leading opinion makers to start picking on the next group fleeing war. It is also mostly women and children since men are not allowed to leave the country so they are the “right refugees” if I may say so.
12:15
When I get bored I usually read the story about the hardline communists in Norrland who went to the Soviet Union in the early 1930s to live in the communist paradise. Stalin thought they were Western spies and those who survived best probably came home after 10 years in the Gulag, most were probably never heard from again.
The Swedish state was very pleased that the Swedish core of convinced communists had killed themselves entirely on their own.
But ideology is a strong driving force.
13:22
There is actually another reason why Ukraine should be helped to a win as soon as possible and that is recession, inflation and disruptions in supply chains. If we can rip off the band-aid and find new supply routes for what the West needs that we previously bought from Russia, we can return to normal faster.
If China wants to step forward and slap its white glove in the face of the USA, they can do that and then there will be disruptions again but just with Russia, the sooner the better they can be thrown out of Ukraine and prevented from doing this again for the next 100 years.
14:50
Right now it is WarMonitor that is pumping out information as UkrainianCanadian has gone quiet about Kherson.
The overall impression I get is that Ukraine is pressing along the entire Kherson front and the Southern front.
Not everywhere at once but there is movement everywhere on all front sections.
As said, if you can force the Russians onto the highway to plug the holes you have come far because you can cut them with aircraft and helicopters.
—
To cause maximum chaos, something is also happening up near Izyum. It is quite unclear whether it is SOF in large numbers or if mechanized reserves have been brought there now but we will probably know in a while.
14:54
What the hell, it seems Ukraine has taken back the forest west of Izyum again less than a week after the Russians took it.
Keep an eye on which army is wiped out this time because no one can handle 3-4 rollovers.
15:01
I’m sure the USA plans to deliver enough, there is no way they would give up this advantage by being late, that would be very un-American.
Apparently many Ukrainian soldiers are in the UK learning the English systems now.
It may take some time to unlock new weapon systems diplomatically but all the groundwork must be done now so they can basically be delivered fueled and ready for combat within a week.
F16s in a city near Zelensky pretty soon, sometimes you forget that it is already mid-June so training can probably be finished on quite a few weapon systems now.
15:13
Now Canadian was back and according to him they are pressing also over at M14. NW of Kherson.
In the absence of more official sources, one has to jump on this for a while now because it feels like things are moving and if you wait a week until ISW has caught up, the swamp will have dried up into a hard cake.
15:19
On FIRMS there is a big fire south of Kostromka inside what we have as the red team’s area.
We should send a thought to the staff officer who is tasked with going in with the tablet to Putin and showing him the picture of when Ukraine stands on the bridge over Khakovka and waves the flag.
16:22
You are probably among the most pessimistic one can find MRF 🙂
I think I have come a long way with positive thinking over the years and intend to continue with it. According to your own previous statements, you have described that you have had success in your work with your incurable pessimism and it is probably also good that there was someone who took pity.
The only thing I oppose is that you mix your pessimism with hints that it will become a frozen conflict or stalemate and that is not acceptable because the Russians must leave Ukraine and the pre-2014 borders be restored, everything else is defeatism.
—
I also feel that you keep moving the goalposts all the time. A few weeks ago Severodonetsk was supposed to fall any minute but obviously it hasn’t yet, you see that as Ukraine not achieving success when in fact it is Russia that is not succeeding because they are the ones who want to take the city.
Then it was that Ukraine had zero offensive capability and would not be able to go on the offensive at all and now when they are going on the offensive according to official statements at Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Izyum you bring up Kharkiv as a Russian checkmate and proof of Ukraine’s total inability. They have just stolen some villages in Donbass which was unexpected.
One starts to wonder what Ukraine must do to get your approval.
—
Can we instead now after three months agree that we belong to different schools in the thread?
Sure, you can wait a few weeks until ISW has caught up but as I often say, I enjoy reading the signs in the swamp and you can do that even if you feel a strong compulsion to try to put a wet blanket over good news that is good for Ukraine. Then I wonder why you and Tankfri always go in pairs 🙂
17:02
Is there anyone with Ukrainian language skills in the thread who can do a quick translation of our friend in the blue balaclava, the big brushstrokes type?
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1536362654679412736?cxt=HHwWgMC95bjsoNIqAAAA
17:09
I read somewhere that they left territorial defense to defend and it was they who were pushed back by the Russians.
I think it is a strong signal that Poland must step in and take over Ukraine’s border with Belarus so more brigades can be freed up to send east.
It may of course be that Ukraine pooled offensive capacity against Izyum/Kupiansk and gambled a bit too much and that it backfired.
Cheating really that the Russians can do whatever they want on their side of the border every day.
17:13
Now the defense has really become like a modern parent, you have to buy phone, tablet, TV, shoes, training, smartwatch, PS4, toys, Roblox credits and what else. When I grew up it was shoes and comic books that mattered.
Just like with your own children, if you buy the wrong stuff you lose and when there is so much to choose from it is hard to win.
Those Lithuanian drone rifles will be fun to see what they are.
17:34
Latest from Gammelsvenskby,
“There is a Ukrainian offensive ongoing and fighting north of the village. Otherwise it is calm in the village given the circumstances. The villagers have electricity, water and food. However, there is a shortage of medicines and hygiene products.”
18:21
You probably have to lead me a bit into the subject here 🙂
19:33
You described mechanized/armored combat quite well.
Micke brought it up yesterday.
I probably would have thought we would see it at Kherson. Otherwise we have thought that they would keep going but right at Kherson there would be a target to strike deep and the 5th Tank is supposed to have night vision equipment as well.
As a bonus you get at the rear when it goes fast, the artillery.
Air denies such combat and then whether Ukraine can manage it technically. I think they should be able to manage it since they are kings at everything else but we don’t see it.
21:16
No MRF, from time to time you like to write that I engage in wild fantasies and other things when we have different interpretations of how things are going on the ground – that the Russians have not taken Severodonetsk you interpret as a Ukrainian weakness and I as a sign of strength. We are both free to do that, right, and we can coexist in the thread without having to go personal.
I don’t remember exactly what you usually write but there are different themes of belittling (now don’t come dragging that it was unfortunate that I interpret it that way because then you really have ticked off everything on the whole list in one day :)). Now you have added “unserious.”
—
The big difference between us is that you feel compelled from time to time to write something directed at me as a person that can’t even in your world be interpreted as positive, why my posts trigger this in you I don’t know, you could discuss the subject matter instead, right.
I don’t have that need at all but write in the thread how I experience the war is going in the best way I can and I have felt that the media has painted an overly negative picture so I have added a positive spin on things because I think Ukraine deserves that.
—
If we look at what you thought was a good contribution from you today it was a post about Ukraine gaining ground in Kherson. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense says so, ISW says so, eyewitnesses say so and Twitter says so. You then feel compelled to write the following – “floating off into fantasies again” and then in your next post “you come across as an unserious debater to all who are serious.”
—
Even you can’t consider this good tone, you have gone quite far beyond the bounds of decency here 🙂
—
An even bigger step back before you start quoting my post above or this – if you hadn’t started we wouldn’t have had any discussion at all that ruined the thread today, right? And it is a really good thread that LW moderates very strictly and that is why everyone tries to behave.
—
Everyone can write what they want and it is a thread with a very good atmosphere most of the time. For my part I don’t think I have started any of these personal attacks that you do. The reason for that is of course that I want to preserve the good atmosphere in the thread and that I value the echo chamber LW has created very highly, they don’t come often. The last time was the Skalman thread a few years ago.
—
Anyway, you show a willingness to try to start a conflict and there were some who felt compelled to join in response to my post or as their own posts below. I think it is very sad that you and the others feel that need. It is quite sad when you manage to start a thread truth that I believe the war is won tomorrow which I never write.
—
We all do our best to contribute to the thread and after the first time I was quite clear that it would be appreciated if we didn’t go after each other personally and it is remarkable that you can’t manage such simple impulse control. I find it hard to believe that you want to go after me personally and I guess you get upset about my posts here.
—
I wonder if I might have replied to some of your posts earlier that you got upset about and bided your time so the absolute easiest is probably if we stop commenting on each other’s posts, right, because now it has been three months and this is not the first time we have ruined a thread.
—
To be as clear as I can – I absolutely do not want to have this discussion with you because it only drags the thread down. I see zero value in this, it is just sad and you would preferably want it undone but that is not possible as soon as you start the discussion.
21:47
MRF, now that I think about it, it is probably the quote below that I usually question from you, here our opinions simply differ (not the first sentence…).
—
“I fully support the goal of driving out the Russian army and their auxiliary troops from Ukraine, even though I in principle prefer a peaceful negotiated solution especially regarding Crimea but also Donbass, which should be centered on the will of the people living in the area primarily.”
—
For me, Ukraine’s sovereignty is absolute and Crimea and Donbass are non-negotiable. This whole war rests on Ukraine having absolute rights to its territory and if we deviate from that, we both give Putin proof that violence pays off and China might get the idea that Taiwan is up for grabs. Scotland has not taken up arms, they hold referendums and drink their beer.
—
Nothing else you write is the least bit sensational, only the above which you often return to, other things you raise are balanced and well written 🙂
21:59
Now you hardly dare to post positive news anymore but WarMonitor writes that the Ukrainian spearhead is 8 km from Kherson “city centre”. A man in a blue Balaklava stood in a valley and about 8-10 km from Kherson centre there is a valley if you snoop around a bit on Google Earth and he himself said just that. We probably need to hear that Kyselivka has fallen first before this is confirmed unless they have come in directly from the west but we haven’t heard that yet.
It is also, as Mr Bean writes, quite lively everywhere right now.
22:09
We have the Baltic Sea and a not entirely crazy plan was to try to take out as much of the landing tonnage as possible before it came ashore and then strike against landings and air landings with our mechanized and armored brigades to achieve a quick conclusion.
—
In Norrland we had Finland as a buffer and then our fixed defense lines. If the Russians got past them, we had the ranger battalions that struck mainly at the supply but also blew up culverts that were placed for that purpose. If the war came in winter, it was a bit harder for the Russians because they could drive over marshes and lakes. If it came in summer, it was easier to stop them.
—
I think it would have gone very well.
10:58
Erik14 was quick as usual but we have a summary of the second attempt at the Kherson front,
-It seems that Blahodatne is now in Ukrainian hands as the Russians are shelling it with artillery.
-I really get the impression that there is a group north towards Kryvyi Rih that will have difficulty retreating towards the Khakovka bridge if that becomes necessary.
-The first T62s have started to be knocked out near Kherson which means they are being used offensively to strike the bridgehead at Dayydiv Brid. The other option is that Ukraine is capturing them in defense around Kherson which is just as bad.
-How many ammunition depots do the Russians have, it must be 5,6,7 or so within the span of a week now that have been knocked out.
-Russian aircraft and helicopters suffer heavy losses as soon as they dare enter the area.
-It remains active south of Zaporizhzhia.
-According to Twitter, Ukraine made surprisingly rapid progress in this attack and the defenders abandoned several of their forward positions (forward positions outside Kherson). There is also said to be a lot of DPR/LPR defense of poor quality that folds early.
-Erik14 posted a video last night with Ukraine on the move and CanadianUkrainian did the same with their M113s. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything but could also mean forward.
—
“The enemy continues to fire 152-mm artillery on the outskirts of Mykolayiv city. Destroying buildings, bombing fields, the enemy continues to put pressure on Mykolayiv region, creating the impression of its presence to hide significant territorial concessions in the region.
Over the past day, the Ukrainian troops destroyed several enemy helicopters, several assault aircraft and launched three powerful strikes on the enemy positions. The enemy clusters and ammunition depot were struck. The confirmed losses of the enemy are 22 servicemen, three T-62 tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, and three vehicles”.
—
My thought here is that we will suddenly see a significant advance at Dayydiv Brid rather than at Kherson and that Ukraine will push down to Khakovka and then reach the bridges (can you drive vehicles over the railway bridge, it must be possible) at Kherson from “their side” Inhulets. This is simply because when Russia has to choose between the Khakovka crossing or defending Kherson, they choose Kherson.
—
If one steps into the shoes of the Russian command for a second, Ukraine is pressing everywhere, they lose artillery daily, the air force refuses support and they do not have enough reserves to plug the holes and in addition they have many DNR rebels of poor quality. Their reserves have been brought forward and they took losses on the way and a couple more generals have stopped answering WhatsApp. Now the artillery is also complaining about ammunition shortages. Plan B should be to defend Kherson and give up all terrain on the east side of the Inhulets river and the Russian units in the area will have to try to nest via Khakovka or drive through Darivka into Kherson.
Plan C is to retreat eastward over the Dnieper but they probably do not dare to do that entirely on their own.
So there is definitely a chance to deny the Russians retreat with a bit of luck.