11:28
It should be a luxury problem, we have too many tanks, but the Russians managed to make it an existential problem.
Yes, infantrymen are easier to replace than key personnel but to have a functioning rifle squad or platoon it takes some time and if you didn’t have that when the war started, you probably don’t have it now with all the losses taken, it’s more a group of individuals with weapons.
But yes, the reasoning is absolutely correct.
11:51
I think this mostly has to do with it being the only place the Russians CAN attack and hope to hold.
They have tried to encircle west of Slovyansk/Kramatorsk and it ended in chaos, then they tried to encircle near Popasna – Seversk and that went even worse when they sank their own tanks in the river and swam back.
Now they don’t have much else to do than try to take Severodonetsk because if they give up that city they have achieved absolutely nothing and the bunker dwarf will not accept that.
Ukraine has found the perfect killing ground and exploits it to the maximum, resting during the day and swarming the city with SOF with night combat capability at night and will continue until it no longer yields results.
11:59
I am a bit too quick to get upset about various events and never have the full picture. Macron is a good example where pro-Russian sites highlighted what he said that was negative for Ukraine and the free world focused on what was good.
I would say now one should be extremely careful about what one says and only praise Ukraine because everything is overinterpreted but really everyone who provides weapons is okay and Ukraine should join the EU. They will probably have a “trial period” like everyone else but they should definitely not be dragged into the eternal waiting room like Serbia and Turkey are because we don’t want them in the EU. There should be clear and reasonable steps they can work towards and manage to achieve.
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Another aspect. Getting Ukraine into the EU is an absolute win, resources, industries (yes, war…), a hardworking population, agriculture, and our eastern defense. If we deny them entry, we have Europe’s strongest army which over time will become Europe’s strongest mafia that will still roam around the EU. Better that they get hope for the future and become a valued member of the EU and feel that the rest of Europe respects them for the sacrifice they are now making for the free world.
12:25
We have discussed that the Russians have an astronomical amount of ammunition for their artillery.
However, I don’t know how many ammo depots have exploded at the Kherson front in the last 10 days, I lost count at 7 but we should be up to 10 now, roughly.
These are large warehouses that have exploded and someone who knows logistics better probably knows which part of the chain it is but there have also been explosions in the rear for a month now but we have had to guess what is burning.
I think that at some point even the Russians must have problems getting ammunition forward and at the Kherson front it is at least not completely frictionless.
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If you look at each front, a lot of the knocked-out artillery is in the daily lottery at the Kherson front. I have guessed that they have short range and must be west of the Dnieper and are easy to locate for Ukraine which has both long-range artillery and aircraft and helicopters.
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The air force gives updates every 2-3 days and there is constant striking against “clusters” or “accumulations” which I interpret as effectively hitting reserves the Russians are trying to bandage up to the holes Ukraine is opening.
I remember the beginning of the war when Ukraine tried to stop the Russian advance on the southern front and Russian air and helicopters knocked them out on the way. Now the roles are reversed. The Russians are probably bleeding quite heavily here in their attempts to close especially Dayydiv Bridge which was a weak point and is now an established bridgehead.
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Ukrainian Caesar artillery has demonstrably survived and we see videos of how they are used exactly as they should and together with target data from the US and all the other artillery Ukraine has, it’s probably not fun to be a sitting target waiting to die in Kherson now. I think, as said, that we will see Ukraine in Khakovka before Kherson but that by doing so they deny the Russians retreat over all the bridges or at least astronomical losses if they try.
12:53
There has been talk about Ukraine’s declining morale on the eastern front, units unwilling to fight, desertions, and whether the entire front line would collapse soon. That was of course Russian PR that the whole West fell for as usual.
Can you imagine a worse place than Severodonetsk on earth right now, maybe Moscow but a city at war?
The entire Russian army has locked onto the city and the artillery is in an arc around the city firing continuously.
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Ukrainian elite units argue before briefings about who will have the honor to fight in Severodonetsk, morale is at an absolute high and this is a battle where the probability of being wounded or killed is very high.
At recruitment offices, people try to bribe their way into a spot in a fighting unit.
They almost have a warrior culture where it is seen as a privilege to participate in the absolute hardest fighting and where the best warriors take the greatest risks and lead by example.
The whole discussion about failing morale and unwillingness to fight on the eastern front was a successful psyops and those who fell for it should reflect on which sources they accept.
The country Ukraine and its people have not the slightest thought of frozen conflict or concessions, they are truly angry and will retake their entire country by force and after that be magnanimous and with enormous self-control not go into Russia and wreak havoc but stop at their national border even though they have both reason and right to do so.
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A sharp contrast to the bunker dwarf’s special school class who rape children as young as one year old, eat dogs, and ethnically cleanse through the country in their quest to apparently free it from its population, buildings, and everything not nailed down. Thieving magpies and the only thing missing is probably to sprinkle salt on all arable land but that will come at retreat. Russia is a criminal clan that happens to be a country and have nuclear weapons and the sooner they can be isolated behind a NATO wall and prevented from doing this again the better. This war is truly a nightmare that never ends but there is only one end – that the Russians are thrown out dead or alive and it will take the time it takes.
15:05
Question here, if you scroll down in the link you have a nice video of Ukrainian helicopters delivering death.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-troops-suffer-casualties-in-kherson-region-general-staff/
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However, I wonder how you get a hit with unguided missiles when you fly nose up and just fire them off?
It feels like a very inaccurate delivery of death or am I wrong?
This one didn’t impress me because I think they must have eyes on the target before firing to have an effect.
15:43
At least I think Putin’s speech in St Petersburg breathed desperation, the West is mean, the USA is unfair, everyone else’s fault, etc.
It’s quite far from threats of nuclear weapons and expanding the Slavic empire down to Lisbon and the superiority of the Russian race.
In about a month, Ukraine will be mean for killing Russians and it was everyone else’s fault that the war started in the first place.
Now I guess I have to find someone new who has to show themselves with today’s newspaper in moving pictures for a while.
16:53
Yes, that’s probably the main thing as you and NostalGnista write, that there is decent accuracy and as someone else wrote, it’s not exactly precision ammunition and 5+5 + 3 or 4 helicopters and you have a fairly good hit pattern, it’s probably a hefty dose of death delivered at a distance beyond artillery.
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Have we perhaps just seen the method to take out targets east of the Dnipro that we have wondered how they have done before?
19:45
A very good Friday this, a lot is happening near Kherson but everything is as usual unconfirmed so nothing to post directly.
There is some Twitter user who is exaggerating even more than I have, I didn’t think that was possible.
09:55
I find it interesting what svenskby writes because on June 13 the fighting was around the Dayydiv Bridge crossing.
Now, it’s all about word choice and it’s not until we have the update that Ukraine has reached the village that it’s definite.
June 16,
“There are ongoing skirmishes and bombings around the village. There is a lot of patrolling aircraft in the air.
The mood in the village is downcast, as it is very difficult to keep in touch with loved ones.”
June 13,
“There is a Ukrainian offensive and fighting north of the village. Otherwise, it is calm in the village given the circumstances. The villagers have electricity, water, and food. However, there is a shortage of medicines and hygiene products.”