12:06
I think it was very honest of Ukraine to disclose their equipment losses. It seems reasonable since the Russians have been the attacking party and then their losses should also be accurate, i.e. not exaggerated.
When it comes to all types of vehicles, there are probably quite a few beyond those lost that are in the rear or in workshops with mechanical faults so the number not in combat is higher.
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Regarding the losses, Ukraine has probably received over 300 T72s in good condition and with night fighting equipment?
Then all of Eastern Europe has opened their workshops and Ukraine has captured 250 Russian tanks that are presumably being repaired. I don’t know how they count the 700 but if there are some that can be recovered, that has been done and Czech and Polish mechanics are working overtime on them.
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Losses in IFVs are worse because there they only get armored personnel carriers with poorer armament and the metal box M113. They really need to be given 500-1000 of 1-2 models for it to work, preferably a model with decent armament (Strf90… all we have).
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The artillery is probably a bit like tanks, they have lost less than half of what they started the war with and received a couple of hundred new artillery pieces that are magnitudes better. Moreover, they are starting to learn to work with artillery the right way, they have better ammunition and targeting data. I don’t think one should get blinded by the numbers there but sure they need to get more artillery. 777 were distributed to the brigades and to some independent artillery brigades but it’s strange that the Russians can get counter-battery fire in as well as they do, maybe they are not used optimally in all units?
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I also think that many of the losses came at the beginning when the Russian Air Force and Army Aviation went all-in, at the southern front there were long columns of knocked-out armor on the road at the southern front. Proportionally, losses are probably lower now because they have learned to protect armor and artillery better and the Russian air force is an endangered species with flight phobia.
12:18
Regarding Kherson, Ukraine has soon reached the defensive line at the city of Kherson and it is no longer like a hot knife through butter as when they cut through the outer defense. It will naturally be overinterpreted as Ukraine having stalled as usual but it will just take time. A wildcard is if orders come to retreat or if the Russian defense breaks down and there is a domino effect among all Russian units west of the Dnipro, sometime has to be the first 🙂
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My guess is that if Russia has to choose, they will choose to defend Kherson so the Dnipro will be reached first at Khakovka but we are not there yet either. What we do see, however, is Russian aircraft dropping from the sky like hail, Russian artillery being knocked out at about one battery per day and their ammunition depots going up in smoke. If you push in reserves, you weaken the southern front which is naturally positive for the upcoming advance towards Melitopol which is Phase 2.
There are also unconfirmed rumors of heavy Russian personnel losses at the Kherson front but as said, it is unconfirmed and I have to consider the rumor balanced and factual.
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Ukraine has proven very competent so that when the day comes for a Russian retreat, they will go all in and blow away anyone trying to get back to safety on the other side of the Dnipro. The reason for that is that those units would then reinforce the southern front and go on defense on the eastern side of the Dnipro instead of surrendering.
If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work but there is definitely a plan to go all in with the air force when that retreat starts.
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Now Ukraine is maintaining pressure at Izyum so reserves are probably scarce to send to Kherson or the southern front which is good.
12:27
To clarify, I’m not writing that they have reached the city of Kherson but that they have (soon) reached the defense of the city of Kherson.
What they have swept away so far has been forward positions.
12:47
Yes, that’s the country that is probably about to start its lend-lease a little bit, I don’t know if it’s specified what is sent under that agreement but you damn well need many copies of a few models for it to work. This mosaic only lasts as long as the equipment holds which can probably be counted in months and then it becomes Ukrainian home repair for a few more months and then it’s over so a good first delivery but much better needs to be done.
13:48
I think that is the combat objective, to deny the Russians retreat over the bridges. After that, you can bide your time at Kherson for as long as you want, really there’s no rush at all (now maybe they want to take Kherson and will do so, who knows Ukraine surprises more often than not). The only thing is if Ukraine crosses the Dnipro by momentum in some kind of chaotic retreat for the Russians. Phase 2 is probably to push south and take Melitopol, if reinforcements are needed you can channel them down via Zaporozhye. Once Melitopol is taken you can do the same there, cut off the water to Crimea and sit down and wait and defend eastwards (yes and west too then since there’s probably something left between Dnipro – Melitopol if you want to be precise).
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You don’t need to shoot away the bridge at Kerch, it’s enough to keep it under indirect fire with something long-range and eyes on the bridge to choke Russian supplies to Crimea, a bridge can also be plugged by burnt-out vehicles and derailed trains. That little peninsula south of Melitopol looks useful 🙂
Sea transports are all well and good but you have to have something for all the Harpoons too.
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The beauty of this is that as soon as you trap the Russians east of the Dnipro and take Melitopol, it’s the Russians who will be in a hurry, Ukraine can let them die of old age if they want. They will then have to start sending units down from the northern front/eastern front and try to retake Melitopol, or the north-south defensive line that goes through Melitopol or where the terrain is good, I haven’t checked. Around then Ukraine can cross the Oskil river and start retaking that terrain and so on it will go with Russian BTGs running like crazy up and down the back roads until they run out of fuel because there are holes everywhere.
13:58
Looking at FIRMS, there is quite an interesting red-dot formation between Dayydiv Brid and down towards Khakovka.
As mentioned, we no longer hear anything from there because everyone’s eyes are on the NW and W of Kherson, but if you interpret FIRMS, Ukraine is not idle there either. Unfortunately, not everything that is burning is grilled Russian BTG, but it is an indication of where either Ukrainian or Russian artillery is fighting, and if it is moving towards Khakovka, it is because something is happening in the area.
21:09
What speaks against that is that the armor depots are empty according to the blogger 😀
T62 near Popasna and more T62 on trains with T80.
If they had T90, they would be fighting with them, it’s that simple.
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There is also a film in recent days of infantry advancing on MTLB.
Many tried to explain away the T62s on the southern front, but now they are everywhere and if the infantry gets to choose… MTLB.
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This kind of thing makes Johan incredibly happy because it really shows how badly off the Russians are now..
21:15
Why freeze the conflict should be what every EU leader with integrity and non-corruption thinks when they have seen LW’s two films.
Russia is no longer a threat.
11:45
When artillery fires in an area and is located, it’s not just counter-artillery one should worry about but also Russian aircraft/helos that know there are high-value targets in a geographic area probably on the way – that’s one of the advantages of Archer that they can regroup quickly over large distances.
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The other thing Archer has is the software that allows them to fire a number of shells that all land simultaneously with excellent precision. The Russians are not known for regrouping quickly anyway but getting all the effect on the target at the same time is pretty neat.
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The whole world should buy Archer and Strf-90 and you’d have to look hard to find better marketing than Ukraine. And then Ukraine would get qualified equipment to fight with instead of all surplus equipment. I still believe that Strf90 would be a huge capability boost for Ukrainian mechanized forces.