11:06
We receive reports every 2-3 days that UKRAINIAN air strikes hit Russian advances, probably towards Dayydiv Brid, “accumulation” and “gatherings” of troops, which I interpret as Russian armor on the way.
12:51
Yes, you must have a tight leash of sanctions where you deny Russian rearmament because one thing we can be absolutely sure of is that if they get the chance, they will rearm and try again under a cloud of misleading lies, threats, and bribes.
18:48
It is good that we have T62s at Donbass and that Ukraine attacks at Kherson because it kills the Kremlin narrative that Ukraine is starting to falter. The truth is that it is the Russian who falters, but he hopes that murderous PR can cover it up for a while. The next trip from Macron, Scholz, and Draghi will be in panic when Ukraine has taken back Melitopol, and then there will be veiled threats about parked EU membership instead, but that won’t work either. Reality is sad if you are Russian or support Russia.
19:49
It looks like the reinforcements at Melitopol that were supposed to go to the southern front for a possible offensive according to Ukraine have partly gone up to the Kherson front. Then, according to earlier in the thread and as we have guessed, it would be a good starting point for a tour-de-Himars to approach Kherson, or the Southern front to break the Russians’ back there. Everything points to a serious attempt to encircle the Russians at Kherson and to take Melitopol, but of course, anything can happen.
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It is very good if the Russians try to band up reinforcements (T62, sailors, and MTLBs…) to Kherson because then there will be more targets on the road for the air force to strike. It will also be a weakening of Melitopol. That can only mean two things: the Russians do not have enough to reinforce both, and they are starting to worry about Ukraine’s advances up at the Kherson front. If we see them abandon all terrain between Khakovka – Dayydiv Brid, then we know they don’t even have enough to defend the entire Kherson front but concentrate in the city of Kherson, which only means Ukraine can lock all three bridges (if you can drive on the railway bridge, which you probably can). With Himars, they have already locked the bridges today with the right ammunition.
20:03
I am very skeptical of Macron, Draghi, and Scholz and wonder if there is more behind it than that. Thousands of billions have been stolen from Russia in the last 20 years, and they have been used for luxury yachts but also to build support for Russia. Now, I am not saying that Macron personally gets pocket money from Putin, but the circle that Macron listens to may very well have a spiderweb of different interests in Putin’s Russia.
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A five-year-old can see that the painless option is to encapsulate Russia behind NATO and then deny them the ability to rebuild their army again with sanctions.
Everything else will lead to a round three, and if you advocate any of the other options like the troika does, then you do so knowing that there will be another war as bloody as this one, but they are quite calm because they know it will be Eastern Europe that takes the hit.
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Yes, Girkin believes in some kind of collapse in Russia, and of course, it would be fun if the Russian empire could implode completely on its own and become harmless that way, but there is a hell of a lot of nuclear weapons you have to get hold of in that case.
11:05
As we discussed yesterday, Ukraine has plowed through the forward defense around the city of Kherson and has now reached the main defense. Therefore, it will likely take a long time unless the wild-flight bubble occurs, and it will once again be interpreted as Ukraine lacking capacity. If you glance a bit at FIRMS, the fires are creeping closer to Khakovka, which means that either the Russians or Ukraine are firing artillery closer to Khakovka because something is happening nearer Khakovka, and my take on this is that Khakovka will be reached first, but as I said, we are not there yet.
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We receive reports every 2-3 days that Russian air strikes hit Russian advances, probably towards Dayydiv Brid, “accumulation” and “gatherings” of troops, which I interpret as Russian armor on the way.
The number of ammunition depots hit is soon uncountable, and if you look at FIRMS, there are fires all over behind the southern front and Crimea. What weapons are they using, or is it SOF and stay-behind forces causing trouble?
The Ukrainian Air Force and army aviation are very active, and they have now got full speed on the artillery.
At Kherson, it doesn’t feel like the Russians have the upper hand in air and artillery, but as said, they are on the defense and have that advantage.
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It has calmed down at the southern front, and the information below was a bit disappointing; last time it happened, they went on the defense, but this time an offensive cannot be ruled out according to Ukraine.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3510212-enemy-amassing-military-equipment-personnel-in-zaporizhzhia-region.html
Then there should be another round of attacks to encircle Severodonetsk/Lysychansk and down towards Slovyansk, it seems. I tried to reason about Russian reinforcements a few days ago because it certainly seems like they are bringing forward reserves we don’t get information about and reconstituting knocked-out BTGs and sending them back into battle.
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All of that sucks, but then you read the blogger’s information about T62 and understand that the armor depots are completely empty, and then the positive comes back. If the Russians had T90s, they would be fighting with T90s; everything else is an attempt to relativize one of the clearest signs that the Russians are blinking that we have had in this war. T62s at the Southern front were tried to be explained away as excellent in defense (protection against top attacks not so much…), but this becomes impossible to get around; they simply do not have enough tanks left 🙂
My thought here is that besides the daily lottery number of +1460, many are in the rear and in workshops with mechanical faults, so they will probably quickly reach those 3500 that would be available.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/t-62-tanks-reinforce-invasion-forces-in-luhansk-region/
Then we also have, of course, the video of Russian mech infantry riding into battle on MTLBs now, so it seems equally bad with IFVs, and it’s not exactly good for morale to be sent to death on a tractor.
They have also shot down Mi helicopters a few times now, and for quite a while it was only alligators.
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Materially, it is Russia that blinks first, which means that if it becomes a long conflict, Russia loses. Now we all want a short conflict to get an end to this nightmare, but if we don’t get that, Ukraine will still win.
I also take back all the friendly things about the troika’s visit to Kiev because the reason Boris Johnson panicked and flew to meet Zelensky was that he was so worried that Macron, Scholz, and Draghi had managed to trick Zelensky into a bad peace with EU membership as a carrot. The USA and UK do what they have always done, saving the free world.