12:53
Erik14 asked a somewhat direct question regarding the offensive yesterday that was hard to dodge by painting broad strokes and sprinkling positive outcomes and a couple of Go Ukraine.
Now we probably have the last round of destroyed depots, ammunition, and headquarters or are there more exciting weapons than this? According to earlier, it holds out for +3 weeks and then tapers off due to lack of targets. Then you have basically pre-neutralized maintenance, air force, army aviation, air defense, and headquarters up to the 300km border and there they can sit and try to solve their tasks…
What I’m trying to get at is when pre-neutralization turns into offensive operations. I don’t think waiting too long is a particularly good idea assuming Ukraine is not waiting for such a crushing superiority in everything that it doesn’t matter how long the Russians get to lick their wounds and that the ringing in the ears stops.
Alongside these mushroom clouds, they have continued hammering the defense at Kherson and on the Southern front, and the air force has dramatically increased its flight time. Russians-in-the-trench are exposed 24/7 and everything near the front. Gradually, Ukraine has gained the upper hand at Kherson and perhaps to some extent on the southern front, but in Donbass it is still tough.
There is value in starting an offensive when the pre-neutralization has achieved its purpose and the defenders are still shaken.
Right now the Russians are attacking at Kherson, Southern front unknown, and how large the attacks are, unknown. What I am completely sure of, however, is that at Kherson everything Russian is on the move, a target waiting to die, 777, HIMARS, air force and army aviation as well as eyes from above and on the ground. As soon as they enter a UFA it becomes a glowing tungsten rain and it probably goes on like that. They are grinding down their last offensive capacity and that also means that the defensive capacity decreases.
Not much more will get over the bridges and that ferry and pontoon bridge will probably be taken out fully loaded if you guess. There is poor guidance from FIRMS, cloudy or a bit of art, who knows.
At Kherson you can at least wait out Russian human waves, according to unit maps the Russians have now reinforced with their competent units and are not weak at all at Kherson (from August 20). Now we all know that what nests at Kherson stays at Kherson so pretty good really.
Ukraine has pushed in more units and now we have two armored brigades at that front, solid battering rams with night combat capability.
It also seems that the area west of Davyidiv Brid is held by Ukraine, they are not letting it go and then there must be a purpose.
Otherwise, my feed is mostly filled with Russian attacks that fail, it is a rather deceptive calm on the Ukrainian side right now, one gets the impression?
Or not where the Russians attack but not with Ukrainian attacks.
We have yet to see the re-fitted mech and armored brigades in actual combat (5-6 brigades). We have not seen any of the newly established units. We have seen artillery and long-range weapons go all in. I believe the air force and army aviation have more to give than this as well. How long do you need to train, 5 months is quite a long time for already battle-experienced units with completed conscription?
Now it is also not heavy fighting except at Bakhmut – Siversk line really and in, for example, Kharkov it is Territorial that fights.
Have the maneuver brigades suddenly been dissolved or are they just training swings with the armor fist and flipping a coin where to strike first?
I believe so but having said that, MBTs and IFVs are needed, F16s or similar are needed, ammunition etc. is needed. This must be maintained constantly over time, if Ukraine suffers astronomical losses it is a win for PedoPutin in the long run.
12:54
Erik14 asked a somewhat direct question regarding the offensive yesterday that was hard to dodge by painting broad strokes and sprinkling positive outcomes and a couple of Go Ukraine.
Now we probably have the last round of destroyed depots, ammunition, and headquarters or are there more exciting weapons than this? According to earlier, it holds out for +3 weeks and then tapers off due to lack of targets. Then you have basically pre-neutralized maintenance, air force, army aviation, air defense, and headquarters up to the 300km border and there they can sit and try to solve their tasks…
What I’m trying to get at is when pre-neutralization turns into offensive operations. I don’t think waiting too long is a particularly good idea assuming Ukraine is not waiting for such a crushing superiority in everything that it doesn’t matter how long the Russians get to lick their wounds and that the ringing in the ears stops.
Alongside these mushroom clouds, they have continued hammering the defense at Kherson and on the Southern front, and the air force has dramatically increased its flight time. Russians-in-the-trench are exposed 24/7 and everything near the front. Gradually, Ukraine has gained the upper hand at Kherson and perhaps to some extent on the southern front, but in Donbass it is still tough.
There is value in starting an offensive when the pre-neutralization has achieved its purpose and the defenders are still shaken.
Right now the Russians are attacking at Kherson, Southern front unknown, and how large the attacks are, unknown. What I am completely sure of, however, is that at Kherson everything Russian is on the move, a target waiting to die, 777, HIMARS, air force and army aviation as well as eyes from above and on the ground. As soon as they enter a UFA it becomes a glowing tungsten rain and it probably goes on like that. They are grinding down their last offensive capacity and that also means that the defensive capacity decreases.
Not much more will get over the bridges and that ferry and pontoon bridge will probably be taken out fully loaded if you guess. There is poor guidance from FIRMS, cloudy or a bit of art, who knows.
At Kherson you can at least wait out Russian human waves, according to unit maps the Russians have now reinforced with their competent units and are not weak at all at Kherson (from August 20). Now we all know that what nests at Kherson stays at Kherson so pretty good really.
Ukraine has pushed in more units and now we have two armored brigades at that front, solid battering rams with night combat capability.
It also seems that the area west of Davyidiv Brid is held by Ukraine, they are not letting it go and then there must be a purpose.
Otherwise, my feed is mostly filled with Russian attacks that fail, there is a rather deceptive calm on the Ukrainian side right now, one gets the impression?
Or not where the Russians attack but not with Ukrainian attacks.
We have not yet seen the re-fitted mech and armored brigades in actual combat (5-6 brigades). We have not seen any of the newly established units. We have seen artillery and long-range weapons go all in. I believe air and army aviation have more to give than this as well. How long does one need to train, 5 months is quite a long time for already combat-experienced units with completed conscription?
Now, there are no heavy battles except at Bakhmut – the Siversk line really, and in, for example, Kharkiv it is Territorial forces that fight.
Have the maneuver brigades suddenly been disbanded or are they just practicing swinging the armored fist a bit and flipping a coin on where to strike first?
I think so, but having said that, MBTs and IFVs are needed, F16s or similar are needed, ammunition etc. is needed. This must be maintained constantly over time, if Ukraine takes astronomical losses, it is a win for the Bunker Dwarf in the long run.
16:09
Now they managed to spam the thread as usual, tricky with that filter.
11:32
A bit annoying that there is electronic warfare up by the border with Belarus, surely Lukas hasn’t completely lost it and will storm across the border with old worn-out Soviet equipment?
It’s an escalation Putin wants to try to trick NATO into responding, but surely Lukas hasn’t completely lost it?