10:17
I know this is a loaded question about materiel to Ukraine, for me it is a completely apolitical issue but it immediately becomes political in discussion and then the accusations start. I think the question is nagging, I can’t quite make the pieces fit and the war has been going on for over half a year. So even if it is received as political and negative, I’m posting it 🙂
Today the situation is that Ukraine has gone on the offensive and managed to retake some territory but still has a lot to reclaim, the Russians have mobilized, NS1 and NS2 have been blown up and Belarus has, according to the opposition leader, promised Russia to assist with 120,000 men for the war.
Russia is now starting to claim that they are actually at war with NATO. Now I also understand that this is mostly to explain why the rolling circus cannot fight a war but that reasonably means that all NATO countries are legitimate targets for Russia (if they can and dare…). They have said on TV that the Slavic empire shall stretch from Vladivostok to Lisbon, that they will drop nuclear weapons over European capitals and so on endlessly. The picture of what Russia’s ambitions are can hardly be clearer – to overthrow the West and make us vassal provinces, if they can.
Sending materiel – for Sweden’s part it always gets stuck in “we must let the defense investigate this, they are the ones who know”, I am quite convinced (and this is just my personal opinion) that the defense whose purpose is to prevent a Russian invasion of the country, if they got to decide, would not neglect this unique chance in a million to completely eliminate this threat without risking Swedish soldiers’ lives. It takes just as long for the Russians as for us to build up their offensive capacity after this, Ukraine has even knocked out landing capacity for us.
For example, we have been able to send CV90 on UN missions without endangering Sweden’s territorial security, why can’t we send all materiel for this international task force to Ukraine (now I also understand that the answer will be – we don’t have it anymore)
Not to mention the great unit death, a few years ago we hardly needed a defense at all (almost). Today Russia’s offensive capability is probably lower than during our UN missions and during the great unit death.
Here you have how the Swedish Armed Forces themselves view international missions,
https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/var-verksamhet/forsvarsmakten-utomlands/
“The Swedish Armed Forces contribute to creating peace and security abroad after decisions by the Swedish parliament and government.”
But apparently it is difficult to contribute to creating peace and security in Ukraine other than with some anti-tank weapons when soldiers and heavy materiel, CV90, can be sent to other conflicts? Aren’t soldiers more politically complicated than just heavy materiel? (now the answer here will be that we have already sent a lot to Ukraine)
I would argue (and this is my personal opinion) that it is a political braking of tanks throughout the EU/USA rather than an unwillingness among citizens or various armed forces to contribute. There are examples of more than one general/Chief of Defense who in frustration have shouted out that we must send everything we can, Jens Stoltenberg in NATO for example and some high-ranking officers in Sweden in an article, they might have been retired.
International missions have been investigated in detail and this investigation from the government is extensive and interesting, when international missions were at their peak the capability in the country was lowered a bit, but it was worth it then, when Russia’s offensive capability was higher than today.
https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-lagar/dokument/rapport-fran-riksdagen/sveriges-deltagande-i-fem-internationella_H90WRFR13/html#page_57
XSI33 reported that Wikipedia was incorrect and that the Netherlands did not have the number of Leo2s stated, that could absolutely be so. But there should be about 500 within the EU that work in countries that cannot be invaded by Russia today?
Just imagine what 500 Leo2s would cause in Ukraine, they would only be stopped at Rostov na Don.
The USA has enormous stocks of armor (as XSI33 often points out), I was in Kuwait a few years ago on a job and passed a huge base every morning with rows of Abrams that were serviced and just waiting for crews to be flown in, you never managed to count them all before driving past but it was just as fun every morning to try.
The signal value of a single Archer or a company of CV90 should not be underestimated, it would be enormous. Or a battalion of Abrams or Leo2. It would not drain anyone’s defense at all but it is not delivered and complicated explanatory models are made up as to why it cannot/should not be delivered. France’s first three (3) Cesars made a difference at Kherson and under 10 HIMARS have created absolute chaos in the Russians’ rear.
At the same time it has been politically uncomplicated to deliver HIMARS, 777, LV, coastal missiles. I can understand the reasoning that these are defensive weapons, but HIMARS has damaged Russia enormously here, Leo2 would hardly be able to make things worse…
It has also been uncomplicated to deliver Eastern bloc armor in large quantities and countries bordering Russia have weakened their own capability to let Ukraine survive – Czechia (I think) has given away its entire air force and Poland all its Eastern bloc armor.
I can’t help but draw parallels to the Winter War and the Continuation War here, there are certainly points of contact, not least the rolling circus.
How did Sweden act then? Much more than we do today and much faster when it came to the Winter War and then the Soviet Union was still a bigger threat than it is today (after this…)
At that time air power was the new black and Sweden sent a lot of it as well as artillery.
https://popularhistoria.se/krig/andra-varldskriget/vinterkriget-den-svenska-hjalpen
I don’t know if it’s true but my father always said that the soldiers at the border had 6 rounds for everything else had been sent to Finland and they were terrified of a German invasion at that time – true or not I have no idea but that was what he took with him from his father who stood freezing at some border post towards Norway for a couple of years with his hand in his pocket around his six rounds.
I don’t believe that there are no top-shelf tanks to send.
These MBTs and IFVs will, when they appear, give Ukraine the offensive advantage they now need to reclaim all their territory. Izyum was fun, but there is still a lot of terrain left to retake.
That it would be politically complicated to send these when Russia, without blinking, blows up NS1 and NS2 is an absolute mystery to me, but then again, I am neither a diplomat nor a politician.
Previous escalations in materiel always came after some pitch-black atrocity like Bucha and all the other pitch-black atrocities, so why not use NS1 and NS2 to now also deliver offensive capability to Ukraine so this war ends before it escalates beyond Ukraine, and that risk increases the longer this war goes on. There is an opposing force to the free West.
I myself believe that the reason top-shelf Western armor has not been sent is that it would look like NATO/the West is at war in Ukraine against Russia. I don’t think that reasoning holds anymore today, late September 2022, but maybe it did in the spring.
10:20
Under 10 HIMARS was when they had fewer than 10 and the chaos that created, now there is one in every thicket.
10:44
Gammelsvenskby, you have to look hard to find a better first-hand source,
“It is relatively calm in the village given the circumstances. However, there is a lot of shelling around the village. And the occupying force is constantly present in the village with their soldiers.”
A while ago they wrote that shrapnel was rattling down on the rooftops and that the Russians use the ravines around the village as a base.
The reason they F5 it every day is that when Ukrainian reconnaissance reaches the village, they will write about the liberation 🙂
10:47
This one was interesting, partly they are reinforcing Kherson and partly they manage to reinforce Kherson.
Now this flytrap is the absolute best thing happening along the entire front as it attracts VDV et al.
17:56
Fiona Hill speaks frankly
https://twitter.com/NewYorker/status/1575638678239576064?s=20&t=A4eUloU0WEp_JdnHaj9JZA
17:58
Mostly about how we should respond to Russia rather than what they can do to us.
10:03
What the Russians are doing in Lyman is a mystery to me. If they have left Yampil, soon the forest will also be denied for retreat and the road eastwards is probably almost under direct fire, and at night Ukrainian SOF are out there mining.
It is a big difference compared to Izyum where there was a retreat quite immediately for those who could cross a pontoon bridge that did not take armor, even though defense was initially discussed. Either they have withdrawn the units they want to preserve and are sacrificing DPR/LPR, or there is an order issued not to retreat a step or there will be a shot in the back of the head.
It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, anything that raises the blood pressure of the hypno-pad is good and a humiliating defeat with prisoners of war that looks like a rerun of Tannenberg will probably break the glass on the meter.