12:08
I believe the number of knocked-out tanks is because Ukraine hits hard targets in a defensive position with guided ammunition before starting to work on it with direct fire and/or encirclement and proper storming, rolling any combat vehicle into the enemy’s firing position that blasts away with everything, then dismounting and shooting to clear.
They have had plenty of time to log all fixed targets, and the idea that the Russians would move their tank around in defense is incredible; the best outcome is probably if the tank is somewhat buried and roof protection against 155mm is probably quite difficult to build, if logs and earth roofs take a shot, they just put another one on the same coordinates until there is a mushroom cloud.
What supports this is that all attacks against Russians in defense we see are quite relaxed, they stand openly and lob into the pits and then drive PTGB straight up to the defensive positions. If there had been heavy weapons or 30mm, they would have been much more cautious.
Sometimes they don’t get all the way, and those are the times we hear about “5 knocked-out M113s,” BTR70s or tanks. When PV does some damage, but that feels like tanks that have been in action.
I think Ukraine has learned how to combat Russians in pits in a balanced way where they solve the combat task without taking too heavy losses.
That said, Ukraine takes losses every day, and every day the war continues is one day too long.
Operation Storm has many points of contact with this war, and I think the US has dusted off experiences. Something I didn’t know was that the Croats already had their own drones in ’95 for intelligence gathering and even in that offensive they had logged every Serbian target within the entire combat area.
I’m quite sure one of the reasons Ukraine breaks through Russian defense is very effective pre-engagement. We constantly get videos of Ukraine passing a group of knocked-out Russian vehicles scattered in a forest area just as we camouflaged our vehicles in the military service. Ukraine sees and hears everything and strikes everything, it seems. They must reasonably have IR/thermal cameras or whatever that all-seeing eye is.
The old joke that a 777 battery could knock out a buried BTG in a morning without a coffee break is of course not true, but guided ammunition certainly wreaks havoc on the Russian defense.
We can guess what the ferry crossings over the Dnieper look like now…
11:12
I think all Ukrainian infantry nowadays act like special forces, you never see an AK over their shoulder and they are very alert. When they were bundling together the three who surrendered in a BMP the other day, the squad leader was like a stressed-out elementary school teacher trying to get the group to defend outward and not just stand and watch the prisoners.