2022-10-26 -

11:00 – Johan No.1

Will see if one can avoid writing Russia and the Russians going forward to not generalize. Assuming that paddle analogies are still allowed, it would be a shame to have to give up the perfect description of Putin.

If one is to try not to make this political – what on earth is our newly appointed government doing, before the election Magda was cowardly and pathetic and now they classified the report the same day it came out and put a lid on it?

Yes, I understand that discussions are going on beneath the surface here and that we understand nothing, we parents of small children have no clue and whatever the result is, they have done right and we have no clue, even if they just put a lid on everything and classify everything – then they have done right.

I think it can’t be that enormously secret what they send, the whole EU flaunts everything they send all the time? That’s the eternal discussion in the thread that we must not reveal our capability, the only ones who know our capability as well as the defense are probably Russian intelligence services, it’s part of their job description. If we send something, they still know after a month what we sent when the battalion commanders report that they have been shredded by something new.

Yes, one should wait until they have seen combat for a week but then go out and say, we sent a few companies of CV90 – a high signal value to the rest of the West to start opening the depots and sending offensive weapon systems.

Politically sensitive?
If it is politically sensitive it is because they still don’t want to offend Russia – after almost a year of extermination war and torture-murdered children – Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, the Baltics, Finland and Norway do not reason like that.
I do not support that reasoning (if it is active) – then you negotiate away all loyalty you should have with Ukraine, the debt of gratitude we should feel towards Ukraine and the instinct for self-preservation – if Ukraine loses, our situation deteriorates markedly, then we approach a third world war.

No one in the thread believes we will send half of our materiel even when we write it but we all also understand that some companies of CV90, a couple of Archers and some other fun stuff in no way lowers our country’s defense capability. It also doesn’t crash the supply chains in Ukraine and Ukraine will do wonders with these weapon systems just as they have done with HIMARS, Warrior, French Renault Ptgb, Caesar, radar systems and the entire drone fleet – do they seem to have trouble learning to operate a new system?

Ukraine wants armor and combat vehicles from the top shelf, that is number 1,2,3,4,5 on their wish list now. As long as there is war in Ukraine, the Russian national team in acrobatic gymnastics will escalate, that is the only thing they can do. They will attack the soft parts of the EU if they haven’t already started with that. It will be reported as technical faults because there is no evidence and they don’t want to scare, but when you sum up monthly it will be a gigantic hump this winter.

11:17 – Johan No.1

It is probably becoming clear that the Russian team in acrobatic gymnastics intends to keep the city of Kherson but that they are prepared to abandon the area east of Inhulets if it comes to that, we have discussed that for a couple of days. Now maybe Ukraine can ramp up precision strikes with long-range weapons until it becomes completely untenable in the city of Kherson, and they have enough weapon platforms to do that, but so far it has not given the result they expected east of Inhulets. A proper storming of the city doesn’t feel appropriate unless it comes simultaneously with a panicked retreat just to chase the Russians ahead of them hopping with colorful bath ducks that keep sliding down so they stumble in the mud and all you hear is a hissing “njeeet” from the bottom of the puddle.

I wonder if it might be the guided ammunition that is the bottleneck here, it takes enormous amounts of ammunition and it has not been delivered in very large quantities?

Then I wonder if the Russians have gotten their logistics in order to some extent because their lousy artillery fire seems to be increasing?

They have also fortified the eastern bank of the Dnieper where there are no existing crossings so presumably they are worried about the wildcard crossing over the Dnieper. They should have fortified the eastern bank where needed so a rapid crossing by Ukraine can probably be ruled out – unless they have left gaps out of pure incompetence that Ukraine can exploit to send infantry that fortifies a settlement and creates a BTG grill. That’s how they did it at Davydiv Brid for example.

If we don’t see an attack down towards Azov in the near future (because Ukraine doesn’t have the resources), then they will clear the area east of Inhulets, encircle the city Kherson Russians and then bring up (heavy transport) brigades to the Southern front for an offensive down there.

Tokmak – Melitopol is not suitable as an attack point (I will probably have to eat those words because pro-Russian forums are warning about exactly that now…) but Russian units must be pulled from somewhere to reinforce there.. Mariupol – east of Mariupol and the darkest Donbass may be weak/weaker now. The Red team focuses on meeting the threat from the Dnieper and propping up the front at Vasylivka, Tokmak, Melitopol. They are also working with their high knees towards the Bakhmut – Siversk line as well as their almost useless defense in northern Luhansk.

Pretty sure that between Volnovakha – Horlivka is the weakest point as the critical mass is still in Ukraine’s favor.

The low point has passed and if the Russian team in acrobatic gymnastics abandons the area east of Inhulets they free up 25 BTG elite units (in varying condition…) to redistribute to other fronts.
One problem with Ukraine not getting materiel to the extent they need is that after every area they take the density of defense in remaining areas increases.
One upside of that is that it becomes more fun to be a HIMARS crew when you can knock out entire companies with a tungsten rain.

Something that speaks for Ukraine not getting enough materiel is that they allocate 1-2 tank companies for larger offensive operations when they should have deployed entire armored brigades. They have to economize with the armor now – risking a couple of companies in a battering ram, beyond that it will probably be infantry support with platoon tanks?

Then something fun, according to the Red team the USA has given Ukraine the means and the right to license manufacture HIMARS ammunition, the apocalypse is approaching at full speed.

11:21 – Johan No.1

This is how it sounds on pro-Russian forums –

”President of Iran Ibrahim Raisi said that the construction of a multipolar world cannot be stopped.

According to him, there are already many centers of power outside the Western world.

Tehran takes the development of relations with Moscow seriously and considers the Shanghai Cooperation Organization one of its centers of power”.

The longer the war goes on, the stronger these forces become. It is a collection of rogue states, but they would incredibly gladly make an attempt to take over, and the fact that it hasn’t happened in 300–400 years doesn’t worry them much, which it should.

The problem for us is that there will be millions dead and a devastated world again. Best avoided if Ukraine throws out the traveling circus within a reasonable time.

12:00 – MatsExtrude

I think it’s okay for the government to read the report and think for a day or a few days before making a decision.
Then it might be good to keep quiet until what they plan to send is in place in Ukraine (to reduce the risk of something happening on the way).
Then refraining from announcing what has been done due to national security feels unjustified. It will come out anyway. Possibly one can avoid mentioning the numbers if, for example, we send Archer.
The only reason to keep quiet as I see it is if what we have decided we can send is nothing worth bragging about (since it would have a negative symbolic value).