09:26 – Johan No.1
Erik14 et.al. posted very interesting information during the night shift, which was scanned in semi-darkness and with sleeping children.
Surely Ukraine has started adjusting the starting blocks and is doing high knees at the starting line.
The big news was probably that Zelensky is either going to the USA or will participate via link and the entire congress will attend. In Bakhmut, he was a different person than before – he has new confidence and feels like both a chief and a leader. People have become a bit worried about how worn out he looks in his daily speeches but he is absolutely a man with indisputable authority and integrity who has a unifying and motivating effect on the country.
This is incredible, the man who played guitar without a thread on his body on TV and somewhat unexpectedly won the presidential election after playing president in a TV series has proven to go down in history as one of the great leaders.
Unfortunately, I am too comfortable to list major events and as soon as the same thing happens again it gets “painted over” on Google. This spring, Russian officers were supposed to lead from the front which resulted in 30 dead generals. At least Shoigu visited the combat leadership earlier this autumn before Ukraine’s offensive.
Putin’s special visit at a safe distance from HIMARS, Rostov according to Erik14’s post, can only mean one thing really, and that is to put pressure on the combat leadership because they need to be pressured.
And then the flight over to Lukashenko – both president, defense minister, and Chief of Defense. Naturally, they wanted the Belarusian army under their command but they will never get that. They will also not be able to get them to attack down towards Ukraine. They will get them to group units at the border and shell into Ukraine with a bit of everything to tie up Ukrainian troops, it will be a diversion/trolling but without being a threat. Ukraine must naturally keep units there.
Now it is full opsec and the canary in the coal mine – Rybar – is not in full panic yet but he is starting to get a little worried and writes about Ukrainian troop movements. When he gets worried, the positive meter rises immediately.
I lean towards that Putin’s not very frontline tour is a sign of full panic and the fact that they are going to Belarus for 40,000 men (according to someone in the thread) is absolutely not a sign of strength. They have already attacked down through Belarus and have 9000 soldiers there but they could just as well have sent in 100,000 soldiers and attacked south themselves – now they do not do that because they do not have the capacity.
A piece of the puzzle is missing for us to know that it is full panic among the Russians, that Macron and/or Scholz go out in the media and demand a ceasefire to save the children.
It remains to figure out what Ukraine has been up to during the quiet phase. After Izyum, it was around 30 brigades that were freed up and then some have been used in northern Luhansk. At Kherson, it was about 8-9 brigades that were freed up and 2-3 are at the western bank of the Dnipro. Territorial defense is decent infantry today and can be used in defense but should also be counted in the total at the fronts where they are stationed.
They have naturally rested and equipped the units that have not been at the active front. You get quite far in just a month, and this has been longer. Full overhaul of vehicles, new vehicles, reserve personnel distributed into functioning platoons that are low on manpower. It goes quite fast for the group/platoon/company/battalion to climb the group development steps and be fully functional. Especially since the reserves have conscription and combat experience in their baggage.
Ukraine had enough armor to set up a new mechanized brigade a few weeks ago, we read.
They have had warm/dry billets and winter equipment should reasonably have been issued to units now. It’s not like the country of Ukraine doesn’t have winter clothes or the ability to quickly sew large quantities themselves… There are certainly also many private initiatives in the former Eastern states to get large amounts of winter equipment beyond what we read about.
All of Eastern Europe has opened their spare parts depots and workshops for captured Russian armor and worn-out Ukrainian – it is a potent repair chain and every month quite a lot should be returned back to Ukraine + what they repair themselves near the front and in workshops.
My guess is that Ukraine is as prepared as they can be for this winter offensive and that they have the capacity to go on the offensive on several fronts.
Northern Luhansk has never been interrupted, it is just lower or higher intensity. The Russians have also concentrated forces up there and if one had reliable unit maps one would know the distribution but a guess is that they have pushed in a lot of VDV and have +50,000 men or more in the area spread over three main defense lines – NS through Svatove, NS through Starobilsk and SE through Luhansk.
Then there are better units in the rear that are being prepared for the spring offensive. Those can be moved forward to the active front if needed.
The southern front, the only thing I think one can say with certainty is that the defense of the Dnipro is with DPR/LPR units that the Russians don’t care if they get HIMARSed away, they have pulled back the main force – a possible move is absolutely to cross the Dnipro with an infantry battalion and go on defense because then the Russians must try to eliminate the threat to the southern front that a bridgehead represents. Then it becomes up on the highway, band over to the Dnipro and attack infantry under their own artillery umbrella with quick calls to CAS with astronomical losses.
If one wants to dream away, a quick push over the Dnipro and down towards the bridges to Crimea together with an offensive SE from Vuhledar would result in the entire southern front being voluntarily emptied. High risk and above all the Russians still focus on their Oblast warfare so there is a high density of units at Vuhledar.
The attack expected by the Russians is against Tokmak – Melitopol. Geographically it is logical but probably frozen watercourses are needed since all defense is built around channeling terrain. Otherwise, darkness and Ukraine’s night capability should play a role here and it is taken by sheer force.
Also a lot of information about guided ammunition to Ukraine, partly promised deliveries so more of the same but then the packages to make dumb ammunition smart for both air and artillery, right?
I also think we have seen a new type of zone mortar barrages over Russians in a ditch that have been very effective. This means both that they have enough ammunition to waste on Russians in ditches but also that they can effectively knock out fortification systems.
Tanks in defense are probably endangered if they are frontline and the Russians should have been very creative with their camouflage/protection of the remaining ones. They should reasonably also have built reinforced fortifications at the fronts but I believe that poor Russian construction paired with 777 just means they voluntarily create a ten-point target for 155mm instead of having them spread out. Collapsed reinforced fortifications that bury a group/platoon also work.
This is probably Ukraine’s best chance to inflict significant damage on the Russians, and we will know partway through the offensive what the outcome will be. We discussed about three possible outcomes some time ago.
Then Erik14 posted a brilliant piece of the puzzle that the Russian military leadership is thinking out loud about whether there is any point in a winter offensive. That naturally means they have realized they will have their hands full with defense going forward and cannot afford to sacrifice units for offense – a good message for everyone who supports Ukraine.
Much that is positive, now we just wait for Macron and Scholz to open their eyes to the well-being of Ukrainian children and make teary appearances with a tremble in their voice, then all the pieces will be in place.
10:16 – Johan No.1
They have also sent Medvedev to China for a meeting with Xi Jinping.
There is definitely full panic on the Russian side.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1605470109228847104?s=20&t=DalzmoX0bIyX2UxXvTam7g
10:27 – Johan No.1
Nice attitude from Zelensky, he already shares before the visit which weapons he will request 😀
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1605468558137430017?s=20&t=DalzmoX0bIyX2UxXvTam7g
10:33 – Johan No.1
Some trolling from Belarus underway.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1605463812647305216?s=20&t=DalzmoX0bIyX2UxXvTam7g
10:37 – Johan No.1
Good question 😀
I never managed to figure out the numbers in Kherson but there is certainly some left.
They lost 2 VDV battalions in Kherson if I recall correctly, so they escaped intact from there.
VDV has taken a lot of hits earlier but should be one of the units that have managed to maintain their structure and probably reinforced with trained replacements.
They are probably still a troop type to reckon with but that also means they are units the Russians do not want to sacrifice, so if you can get at them, it makes a difference.
11:04 – Johan No.1
That’s probably why the Russians are starting to set up air defense around Moscow again 👍
Of course they are, and he communicates to Congress and the Senate so that Biden can then say they will deliver what he requests.
However, he probably had to push hard to get here; with nagging you get far, ask my children.
11:42 – Johan No.1
Croatia I find interesting, no weapons, no to EU for Ukraine, and rather sour faces from them.
I know the country from the war with Yugoslavia and know that it is quite chaotic down in the Balkans now.
But Croatia…
What could be the motives?
12:23 – MatsExtrude
+1
12:37 – Johan No.1
Without Zelensky it wouldn’t look like this. Everyone wanted him to leave Kiev but he went out and took selfies on the parade street instead in the first days.
He is a unifying force that even the military probably respects nowadays. He had an uphill battle after Macron and the Germans tricked him into thinking Russia would not attack. He will carry that with him his whole life but I don’t think it was his fault – Macron should be held responsible for that.
That the SBU in the south took bribes is not his fault either.
Since those two mistakes, he has handled everything exemplary.
13:00 – Johan No.1
Have you seen this summary from Ukrainian Forbes?
Infantry 1:1
Tanks 1:1.5
They have an advantage in long-range artillery.
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1605485831984074752?s=20&t=qPTT1sQdRj02nzchV_U83g
13:02 – Johan No.1
To please dengamle, here is the Ukrainian version of drunken Russian Santas fighting.
He is much more peaceful and engages in what you associate with Santa but never has the Kalashnikov far away if a Russian should show up.
I think many children would choose him over swinging and vodka-smelling (Russian) violent Santas.
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1604811380502167555?s=20&t=qPTT1sQdRj02nzchV_U83g
13:06 – Johan No.1
At some point Putin will understand that his talks with Scholz and Macron lead nowhere, he keeps getting guarantees for all sorts of things but still the entire US Congress drags itself to work a few days before Christmas to listen to Zelensky.
I don’t know but I guess it’s rare that a foreign head of state triggers mandatory attendance in Congress?
In a Twitter feed near you very soon, Zelensky will bro-hug Biden and everyone who matters in the US, and the next video we see is him waving a signed paper and the widest grin with the subtitle ATACMS.
14:38 – Johan No.1
Yesterday I posted all Scholz and Macron’s statements and those are the ones I refer to. They are in (constant) communication with Putin and also out in the media announcing – no NATO for UA, no EU for UA, no weapons to UA, peace negotiations with UA and territorial concessions for UA.
I summarized a year into one paragraph and no points for forcing it late in the game.
I don’t think you need to be a career diplomat to understand that there is a connection between talks with Putin and proposals for territorial concessions, for example. The only problem is that Zelensky doesn’t listen and the US and UK have the audacity to send lots of weapons to Ukraine.
08:54 – Johan No.1
As yesterday’s thread already noted, 3000 neutrally grilled tanks were passed yesterday.
100,000 PDAs will be passed tomorrow.
There will probably be a close fight for third place – 6000 IFVs or 2000 artillery pieces.
Soon we will actually also pass 5000 destroyed transport vehicles.