10:59 – Johan No.1
During the Cold War, Russia operated its subversive resources in rings of 3-4 where they helped each other up the hierarchy from their various authorities and companies and when needed some obstacle disappeared as a suicide or simply disappeared by the FSB. These resources could then be activated when needed but they were quite careful not to expose them.
During the Cold War, Western countries were to varying degrees infiltrated and at least I believe Germany’s difficulties in navigating this new landscape have to do with the fact that they have not (legally) cleared out subversive elements in their administration (yet).
Now this is getting very long here but the 1980s were a troubled time in Sweden and the low point was probably when the sitting prime minister was shot. As soon as Ingvar Carlsson took over, someone knocked on his bedroom window in the Sager Palace (?).
I’m not saying it was Russia, what I want to convey is that it was a different time and a different threat, and that it was because of Russia. The dictatorship Russia thrives in chaos, crime, and violence.
What is good about this war is that the pro-Russians have now outed themselves and if you can find money transfers from Russia to them, this has broken laws (money laundering, tax crimes, etc.). Then you can, with some will, run them long-term (legally) through the system to find more. They should be exposed now.
I’m doing a replay of this which is completely speculative but gives an idea of what we have escaped because Ukraine took the fight. The easiest for Ukraine would have been to go back under Soviet 2.0 but they had integrity and were willing to take the whole hit, which Europe so far is not sufficiently grateful for.
Russia throws itself over Ukraine in violation of all international law confident that all the bribe money would guarantee a quick advance aimed at cutting off the entire ATO force of 40,000 – 50,000 men in eastern Ukraine and then Zelensky would be eliminated early in the match together with those loyal to him.
Another rumor to debunk is that Putin would not murder Zelensky, he has had about ten assassination attempts directed at him and on the day of the invasion they dropped paratroopers over the palace and had 1500 (I don’t remember if it was 1500, free from memory) infiltrated SOF around Kiev.
They intended to attack down towards Lviv from Belarus and cut the lifeline to the West and they would get to Transnistria to close Western aid that way as well.
The battle plan itself was not wrong, it was the Russian dictatorship that failed and that the army, and all of Russia, ran an Afghan.
For the exercise below Russia won the war (which they have not and will not) –
Exactly what it looked like after a Russian victory is not clear – a pro-Russian Ukrainian administration or some kind of occupation. They at least had the plans ready and the FSB was ready to go in and carry out mass arrests from lists that had been prepared.
They had also booked all the better restaurants in Kiev for the first week of March so they obviously believed in their own superiority.
The EU would have been completely paralyzed by the speed of Ukraine’s fall, with primarily France and Germany acting as brakes together with Italy, pressing for a return to normalcy and dialogue with Russia (I base this on how France, Germany, and Italy spoke during the first months of the war).
Hungary and Serbia had immediately allied themselves with Russia, and Moldova had fallen immediately. Other countries in the Balkans had been subjected to Russian subversive activities and fell one by one as they got pro-Russian governments; much focus is on Romania.
We don’t need to go into Turkey in more detail; the thread has probably analyzed that enough.
Russia then mobilizes its army to full strength, and the feeling in the country is that they are winning – the queues at recruitment offices are long, and a posting in Ukraine is coveted as one gets to rampage a bit as they want there. Mobile videos of tortured, murdered, and raped children are sold for astronomical sums, and the army finds a lucrative side income that the Ukrainian children pay for with their lives (I base this on how it looked during the Yugoslav wars).
The Russian army now stands at the border with Slovakia, Poland, the Baltics, and Finland, and Russian subversive activities are on steroids in these countries. Romania has a government crisis; the prime minister drowns during a boat trip, and a coalition government wants to normalize relations with Russia due to energy dependence on Russia. They promise not to spend 3% of GDP on their defense and to demilitarize the country, peace in our time, and more money to the people.
The gas weapon is fired, nuclear power plants experience technical faults, electricity transmission is sabotaged, and Europe freezes while the population uses up their savings to pay soaring electricity bills.
All pro-Russian agents and others are activated to create maximum chaos in the West – the peace movement, save the minks, the environmental movement, far-right extremists, far-left extremists, and everyone at all levels connected to the operation in some way, consciously or unconsciously.
Disappearances and murders become more common among those who succeed in exposing Russian subversive activities, but all attempts to point to Russia for the murders are met by psyops brigades that completely drown out the message.
At some point above, China starts moving – landing against Taiwan, threats against Japan, threats against South Korea.
North Korea stops fighting among themselves and attacks South Korea with China’s help. China surely has more power ambitions in Asia than we have discussed, and various wars down there consume quite a bit of the US’s capacity.
In the US, the Republicans are working hard to get the US to “stop helping the whole world. Why should they be the world’s police and pay the whole bill? ‘America First,’ ensure American jobs instead of spending all the money on expensive wars. Europe can take care of itself.
In the Middle East, the usual rogue states attack Israel. Over time, Israel has allowed too many to settle in the country, and when the tide turns, there are enough willing to destabilize the country from within, which leads to them not being able to defend themselves in the next offensive war.
The terror attacks are too many, conscious wrong decisions by people in leadership positions, mobilized who shoot their commanders, sabotage vehicles (sugar in the tank), ammunition that explodes, mob supplies that explode, wild peace protests against the war, a parliament that cannot agree on anything – all aimed at delaying the Israeli reservists from reaching their starting points before it is too late, which it was.
And not least a “scud rain” that eventually wears down Iron Dome (is it for the 90s😀)
There are also some MENA countries that have been too pro-Western and get run over. I don’t know all the twists down there, but Iran belongs to the new bloc, so those who ally with them fare well.
India is now surrounded by threats and must take a passive role – trade with China and Russia becomes central. Pakistan is probably doing something similar. BRIICS all become more or less friendly to the “new bloc.”
Africa is a bit of a mixed bag.
Now with some new type of world order where there is a distinct “other bloc” against the West, those on the right side can finally jump on those they were forced to leave alone when the West could have a dampening effect on the desire to ethnically cleanse their neighboring countries.
The number of wars in the world increases exponentially, and Europe is once again forced to live in a cold war where one does not know whom to trust and where the next war is only one misstep away; all communication with Russia and China is weighed on a gold scale.
The Balkans are completely Russified, Scandinavia, the UK, Spain, and Portugal keep to themselves. Germany, France, and Italy dominate the EU, and they are not the least friendly to the old Eastern Bloc – the Baltics, Poland, Slovakia, Czechia. These countries get to experience what it is like to be between “a rock and a hard place,” and anything can happen.
The Finns don’t even smile with their eyes anymore.
Organized crime gains ground throughout Europe because Russia actively pushes with the help of the Balkans. Politicians and rulers settle into some kind of new normal; those who don’t suffer accidents. Western security services become the last bastion trying to counteract the development, and the only way to do that is for countries to become more repressive. National security becomes an established concept again, and one has to think about what one says and who one associates with. Politics becomes polarized with hawks and doves, where the doves for some strange reason always slide over into pro-Russian decisions.
They all probably dreamed of this, but now it didn’t happen, and they had to retreat back into the shadows.
We are not yet on solid ground, but the probability of a Ukrainian smashing victory is very high, and the probability that the West will secure the eastern border for the foreseeable future is also high.
We have the UK, USA, and not least Ukraine to thank for avoiding this dark future.
This is in the larger perspective, and therefore there is no possibility for Russia to achieve any kind of partial goal here because those with the muscle understand very well where it was heading – otherwise, they wouldn’t have armed and trained Ukraine since 2014, I think?
It has been an enormous effort from the West to make Ukraine strong enough to withstand Russian aggression, and especially the USA has spent generously, more than all others combined, on Ukraine.
It would be quite illogical to throw away 8 years of preparations and a risk of a new world order by not supporting Ukraine all the way, I think?
Those who matter know exactly how the situation is in real time; then they have a slack line to balance when the turncoats in the West are to join the train, and that is what we experience as the constant risk that Ukraine will be abandoned, but they are not abandoned.
That Ukraine will win and Russia will be pushed back into the closet I see as a done deal.
How China will play it out we do not yet know, but the likelihood that they seek peaceful solutions increases with every Russian brigade that drives into the minefields and dies.
11:08 – MatsExtrude
+1 Good summary!
Adding a bit about that last part with murders in the open street for those who might not be aware.
It’s not just in Russia. Through Wagner, murders and abuses are committed in many other places, including African countries. Wagner offers less scrupulous and opposition-threatened leaders to arrange the “security” in the country (though really it’s only the leader’s security they care about) and in exchange they grab resources like gold and diamonds. All through the cook’s many different companies. Anyone who objects or tries to dig into it is murdered, and Wagner soldiers also seem to have no problem raping the local population for amusement.
Stopping Russia in Ukraine can hopefully also have a positive secondary effect by helping to stop Russia’s vile influence in other parts of the world.
11:10 – MatsExtrude
Had my comment stopped, don’t have the energy to try to find what was filtered. We’ll see if LW approves it eventually.
+1 anyway!
11:30 – MatsExtrude
+100 There you have a synopsis for a novel that I think you should write!
11:31 – MatsExtrude
Thanks to Ukraine for making sure we don’t have to experience that.
11:33 – Johan No.1
My two cents on the Blue and Yellow car after reading BgB’s response.
-How did ETC get access to all the account information?
-Why did they choose BgB of all the organizations delivering to Ukraine?
-There are quite a few charities that are pure scams where the minimum possible goes to aid and the maximum possible to the organization’s lifestyle.
Has ETC written about them before (guessing no on that question).
-ETC has been in hot water, Rebecka Weidmo has exposed them.
-To me it feels like a commissioned job with a purpose, it’s quite far-fetched that ETC would spontaneously decide to spend an investigator’s paid work time scrutinizing BgB, there are many other priorities.
-The purpose could absolutely be to discredit the blog if they went to the blog and asked for clarifications because the blog promoted BgB?
Incredibly sad of ETC, hope this is thoroughly examined. That BgB’s response was ignored means they wrote what they wrote with a purpose, otherwise the scoop would never have been published.
12:10 – Johan No.1
Starting to wonder if I can get ETC to go after an employer I know who wastes taxpayers’ money.
A tip from a dissatisfied former employee with full insight into the chaos.
12:12 – MatsExtrude
Be clear that you want to remain anonymous because that former employer is scary!
13:14 – Johan No.1
Today’s Ukraine threads are mainly a support for Ukraine and a historical archive. LW makes a long summary daily which is then added to in the thread. All the links Erik14 posts, for example, can be used, when eventually writing the history of the war, to go back and find exactly what happened that day (assuming Twitter doesn’t mess it up).
Then I (for real) have a very hard time understanding how one can’t see this for what it is. Russia has already lost 40% of the conquered territory and nothing has changed to their advantage since the last retreat from Kherson.
We have Ukrainian Forbes for the numbers, we know what Ukraine mobilizes and what materiel they get, and we know what Russian tactic-adapted offensive 2023 looks like – after a whole year of tactical adaptation.
If this were gambling, the odds of betting that they would liberate another 40% during the year would be about 1:1.
The only time Russia hasn’t taken a proper beating in a war was when the USA and the entire West supported them and did everything for them. They have always fought like this and it has always gone straight into the wall with ensuing internal chaos.
14:15 – MatsExtrude
+1
15:09 – Johan No.1
Max Hanemann – it depends a bit on what you count as war which I guess is what you are moving against?
When they support local conflicts/some side in a war I haven’t counted that, I was thinking of the big ones where they threw themselves over another country – first Chechen war, Afghanistan, Korean war, WW1, Russo-Japanese war.
WW2 and all related conflicts they won with the West’s help.
Then they have happened to be on the right side of history a few times and helped the West in their wars and ended up on the winning side.
But yes, they have fought their way through history and small countries with an army of 200 have had a hard time resisting.
In fact, it has been somewhat their trademark to jump on peaceful neighbors who are militarily weak.
Yes, revolutions often get out of hand – 1905, the Russian revolution, the fall of the wall. That’s three times in 100 years they succeeded which is quite ambitious.
15:11 – Johan No.1
But sure, I exaggerate a bit for effect – I’m pretty tired of the country Russia here.
(damn how many have had opinions about me since yesterday…)
15:16 – MatsExtrude
You also get many positive comments so you should soak those up and try to ignore the others!
15:35 – Johan No.1
Is it good or bad to get down to the same level of documentation as me?
Now I responded to your first statement below and there I think you are wrong but it is possible to define war/conflicts differently and if we do it your way you are right if you count every little civil war they have been involved in and destroyed countries in.
Then the question is – when did the materiel arrive?
– who bombed Germany’s industry?
-who sent industrial components to Russia so they could build their weapons?
-how do you think the Russians would have transported everything without trains?
– how do you think the Russians transported everything without trucks.
– how hungry and poorly dressed would they have been without Western support.
The West ensured that the Russians got materiel early when their industry had low capacity, could transport materiel by rail and road, had functioning factories so they could produce their own materiel and finally food and clothes on their backs.
The link below is good because it shows how little heavy materiel the Soviet Union produced 1939 – 1941.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_combat_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II
Their fighter planes were also completely inadequate at the start of the war as is well known.
Before they got everything in order they suffered millions in losses.
Then of course it becomes hypothetical but we all know that Hitler changed his mind a couple of times and that Moscow was never captured, what would have happened if they had completed the conquest of Moscow?
Yes, the expression was a bit sarcastic but you don’t dive deep at all in your analysis but post a very basic analysis of how much the West delivered versus what the Soviet Union produced themselves. You miss several variables, don’t you?
Now I’m not resentful and won’t question your credibility for the rest of the war for this 😀
16:04 – Johan No.1
No, those are old names.
No one is pro-Russian at all, even though I accidentally made it sound that way yesterday.
From experience, it’s very easy to crash a discussion, and conservatives like Dengamle and Erik14 do that a lot out of joy, so when they either get sour or start fiddling with other things, it’s probably time to think about the tone.
There is no one here who contributes for any other reason than that they find it fun, and there is no shortage of super active forums that have died out at all.
18:49 – Johan No.1
That video from the trench with a lone shooter constantly moving, RPGing away a couple of muzzle flashes, and taking down the Russian who is at the firing position. I was shaking for minutes afterward. It will probably be part of the mandatory film screening going forward to show the importance of fire and movement.
The video is absolutely incredible.
22:01 – Johan No.1
The Germans have completely changed their minds, there is m https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1626666437023526912?s=46&t=CBbzb0YpJPW1E3uXVGfH_w uch positive 👍
10:47 – Johan No.1
The two posts below follow the attempts made to shape narratives by pro-Russian debaters, not least the Russians themselves who are quite pro-Russian. So this is not a reference to any previous or ongoing discussion in the thread.
The second part is my own guess about what the plan for world domination looked like. Since it will never be realized, it is naturally speculative in its entirety based on what is known and historical references.
It is said that NATO forced the Russian attack on Ukraine through its expansion over time and that Putin finally had no other choice than to start ethnically cleansing Ukraine. They usually attach a moving graphic showing NATO’s expansion and how it approaches Russia.
Now we know that Russia is not the least bit worried about NATO because they have emptied their country of combat army units, which are a quite vital part of a country’s defense of its territory – one of the biggest lies that has taken hold is thus definitely punctured.
They are presumably mostly annoyed that there are fewer and fewer countries they can attack without a self-defense alliance kicking in. Someone has compared it to how the ones who get annoyed if you place a police station in a vulnerable area are the criminals; everyone else is happy.
There are a couple more.
Russia naturally wrote the Minsk agreement to trick Ukraine into thinking they would not be invaded and then intended to invade at a time that suited Russia – an old rope trick they have often used throughout history for those who care to google.
Now they were exposed by the USA, which they did not like at all, and therefore try to claim that it was the West that did exactly what they intended to do – lull someone into peace and then jump on them when they are most unprepared. One problem with that narrative is that no one has threatened or committed violence against Russia as a country at all. Rather the opposite, the West has stumbled over each other in their eagerness to please Russia so they don’t go off the rails.
Before February 24, all Kremlin assets were out in the media mocking the “warmongers in the West” and sarcastically asking where the war was that they had threatened for several months (roughly since the Russians began building up an offensive invasion force at the Ukrainian border).
Crossing the border without warning is also an old dirty trick they have often used together with other similar rogue regimes. Darth Putin reposts all those who sat and pushed this narrative before the war started, which is amusing.
After February 24, all Kremlin assets immediately started writing that Ukraine might as well give up, they don’t stand a chance – leave Donbass and secure the children’s future. Blood pressure rose sharply when seeing these completely shameless debaters being allowed to continue.
Imagine if Russia had won the war, then we could have complained as much as we wanted because the Russians wouldn’t have cared the least. They played dirty but won, and that works too.
Then you have the whole “Russian peace” – they paint a picture of being a reasonable occupier but it is raped and tortured murdered five-year-olds, castrated men, and more torture centers than there are victims in each society.
If they had won, the West would have gone back to passivity and every attempt to expose the ethnic cleansing would have been met by Kremlin’s psyops brigades that drowned it very effectively and no one would have cared. What is a tale about a tortured, raped, and then murdered five-year-old in front of her bound mother who is then released, which also sounds a bit too fabricated… when electricity prices are soaring so you have to take from your savings and butter costs 75 SEK.
The Russians are very competent in subversive activities and psyops. They make whole countries pro-Russian in that way for the simple reason that the opposition does not have the FSB that kills to help their candidate when it finally is needed to win.
The Russian dictatorship is a criminal clan with state rights that does not hesitate to murder on the open street if needed – they just deny everything and threaten with nuclear weapons, which has worked for 80 years.