10:46 – MatsExtrude
+1
Defmon probably feels strongly that soldiers should not be sacrificed unnecessarily and is afraid that they will take unnecessarily large losses instead of pulling out. Easy to overreact if he thinks they should have withdrawn much earlier and when he has written about it then he may also be looking for evidence that he is right.
11:48 – Johan No.1
Yes, it can be that he has defended a previously incorrect position as I always tend to do 😀
11:55 – Johan No.1
Darth Putin gives us today’s truth
https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1632119607627509760?s=46&t=E10nTU24_qbM_D2nDogg6w
11:56 – Johan No.1
Who in the whole heck makes fake updates like the one above that I fell for and with that content too…
12:01 – MatsExtrude
🙂
15:02 – Johan No.1
Darth Putin philosophizes further.
https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1632296480001097728?s=46&t=E10nTU24_qbM_D2nDogg6w
18:26 – Johan No.1
I have a close relative who is pro-Trump so I understand how it sounds.
I was a bit quick to write 😀
One of the worst things I know is bullying in school because it takes all the energy from a child that they would need to develop, and the energy goes to defending themselves instead. Those who were bullied in school when I grew up did not do well in life. Of course, there are always the sunshine stories.
There are many groups that are vulnerable, socially shy/introverted, various disabilities, those who are late in development, those who are early in development, those who perceive themselves as ugly, minorities, HBQT and many more. We had a guy in high school with ENORMOUS acne all over his body – he had it tough. In elementary school, there was a classmate with about 20-30 warts on his hands, not fun for him either.
Class party, “spin the bottle,” the girl who was supposed to go into the closet with him started crying and said “never with that disgusting guy.”
A school can either advocate and implement tolerance across the board or for various reasons not act on bullying/tolerance.
A rather difficult example is when students with a background in an Arab country who feel oppressed by Israel bring that into school and feel aversion towards their Israeli classmate – try to solve that knot, principal. Maybe that was a bad example.
Just as you write, this applies to whole countries as well, and I have plenty of examples of when my family and I have experienced such things over the years because we have lived in a large number of countries. It is a constant battle to ensure that the children are sufficiently protected, I think, until they reach a point where they stand on their own feet.
I feel just like you that we are heading towards a harsher climate in general, which I think is sad and I fully agree that it is not easy.
The best years in my working life have been with international engineering consultants who often had 50%-60% from other countries and half natives, e.g., in the UK. Since everyone was there for their competence and they wanted to keep them, tolerance was taken seriously and there was always a good atmosphere.
They also often have a policy to employ disabled people (is that the right term or am I stepping on toes?) in administrative roles, which was also met with 100% respect.
18:27 – Johan No.1
Ran out of beer yesterday 😀
19:07 – MatsExtrude
+1
19:21 – Johan No.1
I know that when I try, I get caught but here my first response wasn’t so nice so I hope I get points for an honest attempt.
20:14 – Johan No.1
Interesting if true.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1632419484140019712?s=46&t=tbRB7LoUAM2ZX9ckAX-eFQ
06:55 – Johan No.1
Thanks for that MRF, you have had a productive weekend 👍
Very interesting with the odd weapons systems one rarely thinks about when it comes to Ukraine and that they lose LV and radar more than the Russians in absolute numbers.
A good benchmark and at least bios as you write, nothing is perfect but hard to find anything better.
RU 199 tanks – UA 32 tanks – RU loses six times more but they only have 1:1.5 in tanks according to Forbes.
Now UA has gone on defense this winter and RU attacked and RU can choose not to attack and then the ratio will presumably change.
How do you go back in time on these ongoing updates, do you google the date?
08:31 – Johan No.1
I think this is very significant if true. So far, I think Germany has landed completely right so probably not outside the script.
Patrushev is probably the FSB candidate for president and is secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and has not traveled a lot previously as contact with the West?
Lavrov, Medvedev, Peskov (well maybe not him) are otherwise all frequent travelers?
Regarding the Ukraine war, Shoigu is the defense minister?
It is probably equivalent if the person leading the defense committee in Sweden becomes the contact person for a conflict with Norway, many in the government should probably go first and then the whole Ministry for Foreign Affairs?
10:19 – Johan No.1
Now ISW has jumped on the idea that Putin is trying to force negotiations. Previously, we thought the January 6 offensive had quite a high probability of being positioning ahead of negotiations from the Russians’ side.
The hypnopad still believes he can gain land in Ukraine, but soon he will have to give up land in Russia in a civil war if he doesn’t change his mind.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1631957640984051713?s=46&t=uRhouDijWkJ9aBI1gMMhbw
Then there are more bridge layers on the way – UA has received both bridge layers to cross dug trenches but now also watercourses, like the Dnipro.
Then they have probably received equipment/systems to simply build new bridges quickly.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1631725154265964560?s=46&t=uRhouDijWkJ9aBI1gMMhbw
All this indicates that they intend to advance in every possible way: rivers, dug trenches, streams, new bridges…
It’s always fun to laugh until you cry at Russian terrible equipment. Yesterday we read that they are refurbishing 600 T62s, there were pictures of old unmodified BRDM reconnaissance vehicles and then a funny mod on an MTLB with naval artillery (sounds good).
I think Deaddistrict has a point, these are homemade Gepards because quite a few different versions are appearing now.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1632084964492685313?s=46&t=fCfkuZhJUi4WWftnxzjefg
We know that Ukraine, besides the Western tanks, also receives well-modified Eastern tanks – for example with new aiming devices on the T72.
The quantity is no longer decisive but the targeting systems and protection level, and here Ukraine is probably gaining an edge at the forefront that will meet the Russian equivalent.
Sure, Russia has hundreds of T80 and T90 but they are not always the latest modifications, though sometimes they are quite tricked out, you can’t deny that.
Then we have the crew and finally the competence of company, battalion, and brigade commanders.
We have quite recently seen how the Russians fight at battalion and brigade level – Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and now in Bakhmut – both mechanized and infantry.
Ukraine outclasses them in everything now is my (extremely positive) assessment.
A tank or armored vehicle driven by an inexperienced crew under a bad order is just a target.
Then you have also read that Ukraine has conducted counterattacks at night a couple of times now – if there is any occasion thermal/IR sights and these image intensifiers with three (whatever they are called) come into their own, it is in darkness, and if the opposing team has no night fighting equipment it is an open goal and you get help to roll the ball over the goal line.
Then we have read about a Russian night attack that went completely to hell.
Russians do not attack at night and they hate forests. They are terrible at most things so they rely on a wall of artillery and a forest of tanks.
We have probably guessed that there is a lot of SOF with night fighting equipment softening up Russian defenses at night up in northern Luhansk.
Now they don’t have enough artillery, they are very short on armor, they seem short on ATGMs and near-ATGMs (if they have managed to dig down to RPG16s in the depots).
Now the quick-footed one thinks what would happen if Ukraine’s spring offensive started at night?
If I may guess, I think the Russians are also short on flares but I have zero evidence for that. You can shoot with pistol, GRK or artillery and then you get an illuminated battlefield for a while. Having a continuously illuminated battlefield consumes enormous amounts of flares.
Otherwise, you fight in the dark against an enemy who sees you as in daylight, when you were already hopelessly behind in everything before…
But… it is not easy to try to hit a moving target with daytime aiming devices under flares. The flares move and it is rarely completely bright and there are lots of shadows so the probability of missing is high.
Ukraine’s brigades leading the breakthroughs will fight as if it is daylight all day long.
I factor in here that UA has shot out all armor in defense before they advance, there is no reason not to do so. In the attack objective, the infantry remains with the anti-tank weapons they carry with them.
Night fighting is not easy but in the 90s we had image intensifiers that did not provide depth perception and it was quite difficult to navigate, the ones Ukraine has and which the Western tanks either have installed or come with for the drivers make you drive as if it were daytime since you also see in depth.
Even the tank commander and gunner probably sit and look as if it were daytime and on the other side the Russians stumble around in the dark.
The danger of blue-on-blue is probably the biggest risk in the whole operation.
If the infantry is to dismount, they probably have image intensifiers for those clearing the trenches?
Just this thing with IR sights/thermal sights and the new image intensifiers I’m not so hot on but I imagine that today you have a very clear image in front of you?
In the 90s it was heat signature and poor depth in the image intensifiers that applied and the gunner had IR and everyone else had to sit with the image intensifiers.
I recall that the 122 also had IR sight in the tank commander’s 360-degree aiming system?
A bit out in deep water here 😀
Lots of videos with mounted infantry on tanks.
I think they will have that in the attack + armored infantry in their armored vehicles and then they have doubled the amount of infantry they bring with them.
They probably pick them from NG and Territorial or the pure (few) infantry brigades that remain.
Not bad at all!
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1631964250062159878?s=20
Defmon has a couple of tweets that are quite off, I don’t understand him. First, he went after Gregg with a folding knife drawn and now these. I wonder if partly the worry in the thread has come from what he writes but maybe wrong?
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630996973154172938?s=20
He counted Bakhmut out quite a while ago and then changed his mind but now he wants UA to abandon the city in four tweets and he is quite sparing with tweeting (because he probably works with the excellent maps instead).
He has sky-high credibility but it is a rather strange position he has taken here to go out with such a strong opinion.
When UA retreats it is either because the northern wedge could not be stopped, which I don’t think will happen, or because their delaying fight through the city has brought them to the V end of the city and they have no more delaying fight to conduct – that can absolutely happen.
Leaving the whole city at once without the northern advance being threatening does not feel like the cost-benefit is right, you give away something that would cost the entire VDV to try to take – why then?