12:41 – MatsExtrude
+1
Started wondering if you took Easter break!
When it comes to Bakhmut, it’s probably good if it plays out before the offensive. There is an area with tall buildings now to the west. It’s possible that the front can be frozen there or they have to retreat a bit more.
It would be stupid to go on the offensive elsewhere if you don’t before that know that you can hold out so it’s probably good if they can “calibrate” how many resources they need to stop and then hold the Russians. It will be interesting and also how far they will retreat.
The flanks have already been stabilized, basically nothing is happening there.
12:01 – Johan No.1
Bakhmut –
The delaying battle continues according to plan, one can probably just say.
We discussed well over a month ago now that UA stopped RU on the flanks and forced them into urban combat.
We also discussed that the 1:5 losses for urban combat might have been lower than the 1:10 losses when they ran screaming across the fields, but that urban combat was also an advantage for the defender and smart.
Then the pro-UA debaters had a big depression but they seem to have quieted down now, it felt a bit like a collective misjudgment and everyone jumped on and thought Bakhmut should be abandoned.
We have seen videos of well-prepared defense that looks like what we were taught: make holes in the wall, stand inside the room, bars on the windows, downpipes where you drop grenades and mine.
UA took it to wizard level and mined every house they abandon for a demolition-style blast and then let the killer snails take over the house – beautiful sequences of images.
Booby trap mining of the higher school 😀
According to earlier discussion from a month ago – if RU reaches the V end of Bakhmut, UA will withdraw after a completed delaying battle. If RU never reaches the V end of the buildings before the spring offensive starts, that is even better in itself and to me it looks fully possible.
Now they have to run over an embankment and die for a week or so and then there is a lot of buildings left before UA stands with their backs to the fields.
There was recently a discussion about a tunnel from Chasiv Yar so retreat routes exist, right?
Bulgaria has gotten too little credit for its contribution in this war. They chose the West directly and have transferred enormous amounts of ammunition to UA.
Now they are getting started with Mig29 as well
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1645683182270857216?s=46&t=2uEswVKr7bwqw5WAZ3SXlw
Now one hopes positively that the EU sees this and that good things happen with Bulgaria going forward.
For everyone worried that UA does not have ammunition, now you can stop worrying 😀
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1646048857082429440?s=46&t=2uEswVKr7bwqw5WAZ3SXlw
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1645738533569609730?s=46&t=2uEswVKr7bwqw5WAZ3SXlw
Back to WW2 style anti-tank, the circle is closed.
Like ZSU23-2 better than this one.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1645875469844385796?s=46&t=2uEswVKr7bwqw5WAZ3SXlw
I think everyone understands that pre-combat is going on now, artillery and expensive materiel go up in smoke daily here in large quantities.
At a front section for breakthrough, a day or two is probably enough to knock out all the hard vehicles and injure the defending Russians in the trench. They put all the infantry weapons in a pile for example and if you drop a wing grenade with a drone in it, the infantry weapons are eliminated.
They already have the coordinates.
According to earlier, Ukraine can strike multiple front sections simultaneously and all the Russians can do is realize that it can start everywhere and that they can do very little at all.
We have previously discussed all attack vectors and possible courses but then reality knocks.
However, it will be one of the attack vectors and they are not waiting until summer because the Russians are digging in and mining now.
Found the T-cross very interesting and that there were 15 anti-tank rockets in that position.
They also had an infantry missile in that position which missed its shot and died and then we said it’s not the missile that is dangerous but the shooter.
Besides the +50,000 – 60,000 (relatively) capable elite units, it’s only such poorly trained left.
In the T-cross they lay on the bottom of the trench and died instead of fighting back and it’s also easy to miss with anti-tank rockets or infantry missiles under stress.
Guess how stressed they will be when combined arms warfare hits them like a rattling autumn rain 😀
Then the Western vehicles also withstand direct hits if they should by any chance hit.
The notorious hail of arrows from CV90, no one survives (explosion doesn’t sound as tough).