10:50 – MatsExtrude
Unfortunately, it just seems like we have to keep waiting a little longer but #SpringIsComing!
11:55 – Johan No.1
We have to be happy with the little – UA has taken some lightly defended ground on the left bank of the Dnepr and RU has completely lost motivation in Bakhmut despite sending reinforcements late from northern Luhansk, Avdiivka, and maybe the southern front there 😀
I also thought the renewed beta tests of the Crimean Bridge were fun, feels lively.
But yes, there is a great concern that can only be cured with chips and dip that UA waits too long so RU has time to get organized.
10:28 – Johan No.1
UA has apparently attacked the Crimean Bridge again?
Good with beta tests.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1649735275935940609?s=46&t=8tpfD5uJJtBWnUCe2_YFbg
Then there was an attack with sea-going drones against Sevastopol and they have found another drone near Moscow with 17kg of explosives that crashed.
Have you noticed that country after country in the EU and the West formally announce that they have no objections if UA strikes military targets inside Russia? Germany started it, it’s shining every day right now.
Previously it was extremely sensitive with targets inside Russia but now we are past that – great for everyone except Russia when the cloud of 100,000 suicide drones sweeps through like a better locust swarm.
You can probably take out Russia’s electrical infrastructure with a few hundred drones if you now decide it is a military target, the Russians apparently think so and the EU has not exactly declared war over that war crime.
At the Dnieper, I have the impression that what happened is that RU withdrew in an area just south of the Antonovsky Bridge to behind/north of a river or stream, a smaller watercourse.
Exactly how much UA has overrun is not clear to me but RU has abandoned some land on the left bank of the Dnieper. Bridgehead might be a bit much here but it is an establishment of some size UA force (recon or infantry) and RU withdrew from a geographical area bounded by a watercourse.
Then it was talked about in the Twitter space that RU tried to retake the area with tanks but it seems to be swampy and a watercourse in between so unclear how it went.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1650082392428642305?s=20
Pretty clear that it is Putin who is winning the war for Ukraine here, the general staff wants to go on the defense but Putin demands continued offensive – woohoo.
It’s not hard to figure out that he wants something to show on May 9 – he wants a victory of any kind.
All who go and die for this victory could have gone on defense if they hadn’t gone and died for Putin’s victory.
They are draining the last reserves because no one dares to ask an old and very advanced dictator that it is critical to be allowed to go on defense instead – more of that, much more of that, May 9 is important, Bakhmut is important, more death.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1650114421820194818?s=46&t=SO3K51o8S2-Aq4wWBREtwQ
We have seen what the inside of the Russian tanks look like, the T90 that was driven to the USA was in miserable condition.
UA’s own T64s have gotten digital panels in their 2022 upgrade. It’s not as cool as the barrel even though they are also worn out on the Russians’ tanks but it signals that UA takes care of its equipment in a completely different way.
RU’s tank fleet must both function mechanically, then aiming devices etc. must be installed, competent crews and finally ammunition. RU seems to have difficulties in the whole chain here.
UA does not – all of Europe helps to service old Soviet armor and know-how exists in UA, the components exist in UA, the ammunition exists and experienced crews exist.
Outclassing.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1650039163570335744?s=46&t=SO3K51o8S2-Aq4wWBREtwQ
At the same time as the evil Russians experiment with different sizes of suicide attacks, UA has broadly tried to develop remotely controlled machine gun platforms.
UA wants to save lives, RU tries different ways to sacrifice more lives to win – the Tsarist era when it was at its worst towards 2023.
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1650458905724571649?s=46&t=_YYiNHlvj319IVX0iU-HVQ
Looking at the unit maps there are 20 mechanized brigades or similar that are not at the active front – I have probably been nagging about that number for a good while now but I think it’s so important that I can’t stop.
Films fly by of the soldiers in Bakhmut where most have grown beards and are noticeably exhausted.
Then we see films of completely fresh units with Western equipment that are now also painted in UA camo.
To me it is completely obvious that they have rested and trained a large number of brigades while letting a necessary number do the hard work at the fronts, to be able to prepare the offensive blow.
As soon as the offensive starts, these units get relief and can rotate.
Looking at the units at the active front it is equally obvious that they rotate one battalion at a time in the battle line and rest the rest.
If one may guess, the rested, trained and newly equipped 20 brigades go first but after that there is a very large number of brigades in good condition that can participate in offensive operations.
And beyond that some seriously worn out ones that need to sit out the war as defense on a non-active front.
We got a number on the reserves in Russia from Budanov – 120,000.
Add that to the number in the leak and we probably have the total?
Looks pitch black for the caviar-eating Slime Gnome 👌
When the chief of reserves gets a call from a shouting army chief in Ukraine that they must send in the reserves it is already too late. Things are moving on all fronts and UA is jumping in the decision loop.
This also explains why there are so few elite units at the active fronts in the leak – 120,000 are in various stages of training.
The only thing that can save the caviar eater is a general mobilization where they push out some million in defense in Ukraine and that it simply is too many for UA to handle.
We have already seen how poor condition the Russian units have been since January 6 and it is actually easier to run forward towards a point and die and over time advance a kilometer by sacrificing own units than to try to go on defense and absorb combined arms warfare.
That type of attack requires very little initiative while an effective defense that well copies Desert Storm straight up requires its man.
I am of the opinion that VDV, Marine Infantry, Spetsnaz and reconnaissance in the Russian team are in poor condition now and maybe around +50,000 remaining.
Those were the units that could set up some type of defense against UA and there was a Twitter rumor that VDV stands for line 4 in the defense systems at the southern front. The first line is expendable, then it gets a bit better equipped and then in the fourth line the (relative) elite they have.
The problem according to the Twitter rumor was that line 4 is now empty because VDV has fought elsewhere – if true that is sensational but as said Twitter rumor…
Then IF it was VDV in line 4, who are then the rapid reaction force?
At Kherson, VDV was always the rapid reaction force and made life hard for UA when they broke through, they don’t seem to have that capability anymore.
The weather is pretty dull, looks like it will rain for another week. I see films of both mud and that the ground holds and positive as one is, one probably overinterprets it positively maybe.
The ground must hold is probably central to the battle plan if one may guess, Lex Barbarossa.
I am of the opinion that it is a special year with La Nina because we had a warm winter and a freezing cold March.