13:04 – MatsExtrude
+1
13:17 – Johan No.1
+1
14:23 – Johan No.1
Hohoho – China + Ukraine = true 👍
https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1651184756623802368?s=46&t=sbIUeR7sLfkjbe2D-uO4Sg
14:28 – MatsExtrude
+1
15:23 – Johan No.1
An interesting discussion, I do not see water as flank protection in the way you do because I think UA is preparing landings and then there is endless coast.
Then Crimea is limited so RU cannot reinforce Crimea by sending reserves there.
RU also cannot keep supplies and reserves beyond HIMARS range in Crimea.
Crimea’s supply is cut by the Kerch bridge, they have already shown they can do that.
Then the psychological effect that the defense has no retreat options.
Today there are probably not many elite units down there and those who will retreat down there themselves need to pass the bottleneck and can probably be decimated quite a lot.
We will see simply 😀
08:22 – Johan No.1
Have you seen this?
Isolated incident, I don’t think so.
One’s own worst enemy.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1651439228054646784?s=46&t=5rncOCQRVU7TopXHeLEXpw
12:19 – Johan No.1
If you have followed the Twitter gods, you know that there is frontline close pre-combat on the left bank of the Dnepr right now.
We have probably discussed the crossing of the Dnepr and it is probably best described as an establishment of lighter units (reconnaissance, SOF)?
In the big campaign plan that was posted about a month ago or so, the discussion went like this – they landed infantry north of Khakovka in suitable communities that went on the defense with local PV under their own artillery umbrella and CAS.
That would open a threat on the flank of the southern front and RU then needed to send mechanized forces there to try to defeat them, they would be exposed on the way by CAS, drive into minefields and then crash into the defense and be knocked out by artillery.
Considering how poorly they have fought so far, that probably would have worked excellently.
The idea was that they then needed to pull units from the southern front to this, so the defense would be thinned out and then UA could strike there.
Now we know today that RU has about 15,000 in the area against the Dnepr which is an unpleasant numerical strength.
But we also know that UA has 3 Marine brigades, 3 Mechanized, 1 Armored and a bunch of territorial units.
We discussed about a week ago that the charm of the marine infantry now present in the area is that they can land not only across the Dnepr but also along the coast between Kinburn Spit and the Crimean bridges to open a third threat.
I see it as highly unlikely that the Russians could counter that and the southern front should collapse immediately.
The concentration of units signals that they might have a higher ambition than just landing infantry in defense?
I think there is movement around the Dnepr at least.
At the southern front, I do not see the buildup on the unit maps that one could have expected (yet) but there are a total of 20 brigades not on the active front and at least +10 of them are in the vicinity of the southern front. It takes a day or two to move them forward.
At Bakhmut, UA has brought forward enough units today for an offensive – their offensive capability is very high.
To me, it looks like the delaying battle is still ongoing, according to Gregg it calmed down but on Deepstatemap there has been a lot of lost terrain in the past week.
According to the manual for delaying battle, you withdraw west until you need to entrench and then you do that – it is not a loss, it is delaying battle and smart warfare.
So – if they withdraw from the built-up area in Bakhmut, it is completely according to the plan for delaying battle and the most surprising thing is how long it has taken to POSSIBLY get here.
IF the Russians now intend to increase the intensity for some kind of decisive offensive.
The 120,000 remaining in Russian training camps – before they can be effective for a defense, that must reasonably be some months away after orders for movement have been given?
I do not think the southern front will be anything other than a Russian unorganized retreat and Kuwait Highway 2.0 when they try to reach Crimea.
Crimea is very simple – position HIMARS and load up with suicide drones and work against all targets across Crimea for a week or so so the defeat doctrine spreads like wildfire.
Then announce that you cut the bridge over Kerch a week later and prepare X brigades for an attack on Crimea so it is visible.
It is highly likely that there will be a large spontaneous retreat over the Crimean bridge.
If not, the marine infantry has the ability to attack along the entire coast and mechanized forces work their way down from the Crimean bridges over to the mainland – that also works.
The units currently down in Crimea are not the tip – they are the cooks, mechanics and various others.
The tip retreating down there is already shaken after retreating down from the southern front.
Northern Luhansk is probably possible to break through today and they have so far pulled units from there to all other front sections which could signal that the area has lower priority?
However, it is the nearest area to reinforce northern Luhansk when the 120,000 in the training camps get marching orders.
My guess is that when you have to choose whether to defend Horlivka, the city of Donetsk and the city of Luhansk, then you abandon northern Luhansk.
The whole area east of Bakhmut – Siversk line will probably fall quite quickly if one guesses.
I am of the opinion that there is a thinking error here – since RU is on the defense, UA will take proportionally much higher losses in the upcoming offensive.
To me it is clear that UA has a technological advantage, quality advantage, more ammunition and an advantage in capability all the way up to combined arms warfare.
I see the spring offensive a bit like the Kuwait war where the USA’s lower numbers were compensated by Iraq’s poor everything.
The only difference here is that UA also today has the numbers on their side actually if one is to believe the leaks, Budanov, UA’s own figures on numbers in the army and the number of brigades.
It will be very exciting to see when the war is over how close we were on various numbers but UA has prepared excellently for this decisive offensive.
You all see the videos and that everything is now staffed with units.
Waiting times.
#putindinglandesifötternaienbensinmacksomenlevandepinhata
(when that hashtag takes off I will be rich).
I feel that my participation has gone down more than allowed but soon I have figured out how to cheat.
The flailing pinata hanging from the gas station will make my year.