12:05 – Johan No.1
I thought you could get double the distance if you took 4 blank steps, but apparently not.
12:14 – Johan No.1
Exciting that the war industry is targeted.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1655149016324141057?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
12:36 – Johan No.1
Reinforcement of the southern front?
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1655154113443708928?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
13:59 – Johan No.1
Lovely with a boat trip 👍
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1655178385121837056?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
14:01 – Johan No.1
What is the definition of a swarm?
22 sounds a bit low?
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1655176416969859072?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
14:18 – MatsExtrude
👍
14:28 – Johan No.1
A bit Sunday tired thread and sorry for OT but this one was quite funny and at least there are weapons involved.
https://twitter.com/thefigen_/status/1655161462128607234?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
14:33 – Johan No.1
👍
16:33 – Johan No.1
Everyone is scared all the time, those coming now may not have previous experience and shorter training and are more shocked by all the impressions?
Just looking at the faces of the defense in Bakhmut is enough to understand the stress level they are at, not a psychologist but probably permanent damage, terrible to see.
What Gregg talks about is territorial, those 14 newly established brigades only accepted applications with combat on the CV.
They took a lot from territorial and then territorial has filled up with completely inexperienced?
But now territorial is not supposed to go first and those with completely new recruits probably get simpler guard duties?
My two cents.
22:38 – Johan No.1
Then to Snorlars who wanted people to go to bed at 9 o’clock.
I am in a different time zone so I still have some room left.
Erik14 probably has permission for a full night shift if I understand the regulations and statutes correctly?
22:46 – Johan No.1
Hope I got here first.
It is daaaady (or however you say about HIMARS…)
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1655305737910865924?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg
(Yes, that bar in the living room is deadly)
23:04 – Johan No.1
New RU numbers 👇
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1655292968046063623?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg
12:04 – Johan No.1
Do you remember last year when we saw the parade on May 9th and realized that the Ukraine war was a fly on the wall that didn’t reach Russia and that the inertia in Russia was enormous? The army went and died in Ukraine but Putin stood and looked long at the parade with soldiers and vehicles that were the most polished in the northern hemisphere.
We discussed it a lot and I think we called it a calibration that has lived with us since then.
Now in 2023, the parades have been affected, they are canceled in many places and Putin will not participate – this is a huge signal that the country Russia is now negatively affected by the Ukraine war.
Someone said we should look for the cracks, and Prigozhin’s defection and canceled parades are very big cracks.
Then I am of the opinion that if you want to disrupt the parade, it is impossible to protect yourself, open a window and release a pre-programmed drone that buzzes away just under roof height a few blocks?
Either it lands, it has explosives, or it unfolds a UA flag – all would give bad PR for the Russians.
Do you remember someone wrote that a couple of Russian bases were emptied down in Crimea?
I interpreted that as them being moved north to reinforce the southern front but then videos came of queues down to Crimea from the southern front and the closure of civilian traffic over the Kerch Bridge and stops in the ferry camps.
It could be that RU has already started evacuating headquarters, rear areas, and equipment from Crimea over Kerch as a precaution and that all civilian traffic has been stopped.
Who knows…
Yesterday it seems UA sent more drones against the Russians than the Russians sent against UA – probably the first time?
Frontline pre-attack probably takes out heavy vehicles now I guess and artillery as well as heavy vehicles have taken completely crazy losses for weeks.
Then UA has again (daily) carried out attacks at one or several front sections and achieved (another) breakthrough. Avdiivka among others.
The reporting is partly with a three-day delay now and then UA has asked for a lid on it (again) so probably more is happening than we are currently informed about.
One thing I wonder about – is everything Gregg writes with a three-day delay, is that how we should read his posts right now?
Lunation posted a little riddle the other night which was probably the GLDSB bombs, “double cassette”.
I had some problems communicating so late at night after a tidy after work but can report that I jumped high in the room in an acute outburst of positivity. However, it was a strange feeling like salt and sour at the same time because it felt like I hit my head on a bed base when I did my somersaults. Anyway – what a scoop Lunation.
Considering how they already start spontaneous evacuation behind the southern front you hope it will be a full breakthrough and fleeing Russians with a washing machine on a pallet down to Crimea.
At Kherson they worked for months but you get the distinct feeling it will go faster here because the defense is weaker and the attacking party stronger and better prepared.
The hope for a short war lives very strongly for the simple reason that you want an end to this nightmare every day but it is not pure daydreaming – there is a lot of hard data backing up that assumption.
Good heavens how Nestor roasted whisky in the big whisky thread, I laughed so hard I cried – Nestor should become the CEO of Systembolaget.
Working with a couple of Dutchmen, or Hollanders, or however they identify since the company is Dutch (that’s how I identify them). First observation was that they seem to only come in blond and the second is that they are really fed up with – “God, how fun, I strolled through the red light and smoked a joint at the marijuana bar” – they really hate that.
But they have also supported Ukraine incredibly and are part of JEF, the Netherlands should be watched going forward because they are on the right side of history.
They are lousy at naval projects but on the plus side it weighs massively that they have a fully equipped minibar plus a beer fridge in the living room – can silence the biggest critics as they are unsteady on their feet morning, noon, and night.
Quite disappointed that the thread could figure out that my name was taken from a muskrat in an aquarium at Berlin Zoo, clearly I have underestimated the thread’s analytical ability or everyone has been to the aquarium at Berlin Zoo which was not a first guess directly.
An interesting detail about the Pentagon leak that one can choose to believe or not was that it stated the offensive would start April 30th.
This was up I think, long queues down to Crimea.
https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1654908095141666818?s=20
According to this Twitter user, we should keep an eye on when the Black Sea Fleet slips away from Crimea.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1655063500635471875?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
Vercingetorix posted today’s Accent Man which I think was very exciting because things are moving significantly in Vuhledar and then Erik14 gets to keep his five hundred.
Extremely unfortunate that the Russian artillery has ammunition and that the air force is active. Interesting that Wagner does not get the support they want…
https://youtu.be/SNJ1LajA6Go
The Accent Man in his element with arrows and maps describes the T-cross and Cyclops. Ukraine fought quite similarly to what we have thought they should do and reasoned a lot about – eyes on the ground from drones, drone-dropped grenade, 155mm in reinforced fortifications and then clean up.
A huge scope to say the least if it is intended to start up there.
https://youtu.be/rjxLMrPu1bs
Apparently a lot of goods go to RU through Kazakhstan. For me it is crystal clear that if RU gets time, they can get their defense in order with China’s and smugglers’ help. It really matters now and we have to hope that Western weapons are enough.
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1654916798095949825?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
Then you can also turn it around and say simply that the West beat Russia with a very small part of its weapons and Ukraine but that is not at all fair but just to put in perspective what capacity exists.
Rybar and Girkin remain completely silent which is a bit sad but that probably signals that there are no more angles to spin here, Rybar has been silent since April 20th.
I read in another forum about Wagner and that they get paid continuously for offensives but that it is geographical. Apparently they have not received more contracts now and that is probably why Prigozhin is visible on Telegram. They are retreating in Bakhmut which does not pay well and they have nowhere else to switch to.
Simply put, he makes money continuously by sending forward drugged prisoners who die – the more I learn about him the more evil he seems.
The army is there to win a war, but Prigozhin is there to get paid.
That would also explain their completely pointless storming across the fields, as it has generated ongoing revenue for Wagner PMC.
Department of unconfirmed Twitter rumors – RU plan is a tactical retreat down to Crimea when the pressure from the UA offensive becomes too intense. We already know that they have withdrawn rear, civilian, and administration from the southern front, so not entirely unreasonable.
At least they have not reinforced the southern front with all the reserves they have, which they should have if they intended to hold it.
https://twitter.com/BrennpunktUA/status/1654937016130236421?s=20
I understand that there has been quite little about UA fighting today, but I have thrown my hat in the ring and am just waiting for the spring offensive to be formally confirmed. These periods are always the most boring; I think there is full pre-combat and offensive operations all over, and the window for increasing offensive has definitely begun, but we must have something official to confirm it.