12:00 – Johan No.1
The opsec blanket is probably tight, I’m starting to get tired of beer types and all that but the chimpanzee that got hold of an AK74 was funny (unless it’s animal cruelty to think so, then I don’t think it was funny at all and just get upset 🤬).
We see many videos of trench clearing right now, I think it fits the season.
Also pretty sure that the high losses are not only from RU attacks but also from UA attacks.
If we go by Kherson, it will go on like this for a while before a front collapses. UA can’t put all their eggs in one basket so they probably press everywhere with increasing intensity and where it looks like the bricks are loose they probably drive in the battering ram.
They have capacity for many battering rams but it would probably be a morale breaker if several brigades got stuck immediately and were knocked out, I think?
The units have been mobilized for a long time, at Bakhmut the spearhead has been staged for over a month.
Fuel and ammunition are in place.
There are (reconnaissance) battles on virtually all fronts and UA has achieved success almost everywhere except up in northern Luhansk, so maybe a bit less intensity there?
According to leaked documents, the offensive was supposed to start April 30.
Seems reasonable that the window for the offensive has opened.
A special year with the weather but according to the thread’s chief engineer, the ground has been bearing on mud and spring grass for about a week now (wasn’t it?).
Someone has calculated that La Nina delayed the ground’s bearing capacity by about a month.
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1654516669383933956?s=20
If there were a huge breakthrough immediately with full front collapse, of course that would be brilliant but taking off the positive hat, it should probably be increasing intensity over time until it breaks and the only front where a decisive result will come immediately is the southern front WHEN it breaks. At Bakhmut-Siversk, northern Luhansk and darkest Donbass, there will probably be series of offensives since there are defensive lines in depth and the areas are larger.
This assuming none of the bubbles kick in and RU leaves the field completely up in northern Luhansk for example because they have to choose where they want to defend. Or leaves UA completely 😀
An early goal for the spring offensive that we discussed in the thread was the chess move to isolate Crimea and then retake northern Luhansk – if they have come that far they have won and it’s only a matter of time.
If you stand in northern Luhansk, you have all Russian north-south supply routes within suitable distance and Crimea can never be reinforced so it falls over time just like Kherson.
Since you can disrupt all supply into Donbass, that area also becomes impossible to defend over time. Only darkest Donbass remains and you can also pool your best units for the final battle there.
The destroyed fuel depots are very interesting, one should have managed to disrupt that logistics chain quite hard now but fuel doesn’t feel like the most important thing here, what have I missed?
Ammunition should probably have been targeted already before switching to fuel?
The sabotage against trains means you can’t quickly move reinforcements either.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1655161062268837889?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
Proof of Leo2 in UA
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1655292968922759168?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg
Girkin is really hard-depressed. We all understand that it was mobilization in January that was needed.
https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1655186960577703941?s=20
This one was maybe brought up by the thread’s own living legend Erik14 but it was on my list – as a good second I post training of bridge layers.
https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/status/1655238971717287936?s=46&t=kscbBH0NGcgbGsZ7lV47sg
Below is among the most confident text I have ever read, only a winner writes like that.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3706005-russia-to-panic-when-ukraine-launches-counteroffensive-deputy-defense-chief.html
Here is an opinion that believes RU has 150k reserves.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1655051648870367232?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
A boat trip that looks calmer than mine today, here the sea is rough…
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1655178385121837056?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA
12:05 – Johan No.1
Death to the Slime Gnome ✊
13:44 – MatsExtrude
+1
13:53 – Johan No.1
👍
14:21 – Johan No.1
Kherson was built up over a long time.
Izyum went fast but then it stopped quite soon.
The condition of the Russian defense is hard to assess – my guess is that offensive reserves are +50,000 and then there are new talents with some combat experience. We think they are short on heavy vehicles and whenPV but we don’t know.
Unfortunately, they have 300-400 aircraft.
UA will strike where RU is weak and they have capacity today on all fronts so RU can’t pool to any front and weaken somewhere, then UA just hits there instead.
That’s probably what Gregg calls the “cat and mouse game”?
RU has enormous distances to transport between different fronts, UA has short distances.
UA has hit hard against the artillery, rear maintenance, and now front-near pre-emptive strikes.
Every time UA has advanced the last month they have come quite far; “1.5km” is a good distance in offensive terms in a day, ask Wagner who takes a few hundred meters a week. Then the defense has collapsed.
Then RU rushes in the task force and tries to plug the holes.
What we haven’t seen yet are UA’s new battering rams (I think) but it’s still the brigades at the fronts conducting their reconnaissance battles. That’s probably the force called the “offensive” and everyone is waiting for it to be deployed.
If they need to prioritize, I THINK northern Luhansk will be sacrificed. I do have some support for that in that they have weakened up there when they needed units for their winter offensive.
I THINK they will try to defend the city of Luhansk, the city of Donetsk, and the city of Horlivka.
If UA manages to get down to Azov, all units west of that line will sooner or later retreat down to Crimea because they will then be exposed from 4 directions if marine infantry lands between Kinburn Spit – Crimea.
They will also be terrified that the land route to Crimea is cut so it will go fast there.
The units east of that unfortunately still have their backs free.
The final battle should be in darkest Donbass.
15:49 – Johan No.1
Small glimpses of information one likes.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1655569145545601025?s=46&t=jIYbJ61jTkZr918EkUASNQ
16:41 – MatsExtrude
+1000 (meters)
18:25 – Johan No.1
The rat buses run shuttle service
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1655604554480726017?s=46&t=jIYbJ61jTkZr918EkUASNQ
19:20 – MatsExtrude
👍
To those nervous about a possible explosion of the power plant.
If we see them running all the way back to Russia before Ukraine has even started the offensive in earnest, it might possibly be time to worry.
If you want to blow something up, you want to be far away.. You never know how the winds will blow..
21:41 – Johan No.1
✊go blue
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1655630555201822736?s=46&t=e8qfoTq3AhWrY4FRXUldCg
11:35 – Johan No.1
Yep, the former Soviet states have a fairly liberal attitude towards the sanctions.
China probably delivers quite a lot.
Iran delivers everything they can.
The smuggling routes are wide open after all.
If Russia gets time, they can regain lost capability despite the sanctions. Iran has managed to build missiles and drones despite full sanctions. Even Israeli components were found in their drones, which is quite remarkable.