10:16 – Johan No.1
I wrote that above and here as well, it’s easy to forget that now when UA goes on the offensive, their losses will skyrocket and thousands or tens of thousands will die in this offensive. The families at home must be completely destroyed by the waiting, and the soldiers have to function in a lottery of who survives – utterly terrible throughout.
The positive thing is that this way they steer the country’s fate towards peace the fastest and that the alternative would have been worse, but that probably doesn’t matter for the children who have to grow up without their father and a broken mother.
You really feel for this country.
10:33 – MatsExtrude
+100 Solid post today!
If you were short on time, it would be enough to read LW’s text and your “novels”!
10:57 – Johan No.1
I have learned how to slack off at work so now there is time.
11:08 – MatsExtrude
Just in time now that the transport stretch to the offensive is completed.
11:09 – Johan No.1
This is probably in line with what we think the outcome will be?
https://twitter.com/paulniland/status/1656766300482314240?s=46&t=vl2E0IR7YnEXvqBV71n0Yw
11:12 – Johan No.1
Yes, I had to work really hard to learn how to slack off from work, got pretty exhausted by it.
11:22 – MatsExtrude
Yes. It can be exhausting to dodge work tasks! 🙂
14:25 – Johan No.1
The day is shaping up well, everything is going according to the battle plan and the good news keep coming.
Let’s see how early I manage to trick my colleagues into going to the Friday pub, but last week it was a sober event, looking forward to good food and a beer or two 👍
14:26 – Johan No.1
*good food.
14:30 – MatsExtrude
Wish you a pleasant Friday pub!
14:32 – MatsExtrude
I was about to write something snarky, like:
“Are you not trusted to go to the pub without a legal guardian with you?”
The first idea I got was of course even worse… but I stopped myself!
14:39 – Johan No.1
I was about to write, “sh1t now I’m going to get MatsExtrude on me in a self-reinforcing loop that takes up the whole day” but I stopped myself too.
I feel we have reached a new level of responsibility today, time for Friday pub 😀
14:44 – MatsExtrude
Feels nice, you could almost believe we are adults!
Have about an hour left, but run off to the Friday pub and have a beer or three, you deserve it!
19:26 – Johan No.1
Sorry for the silence, I saw many cheerful cheers further up the thread but it was a bit chaotic here.
Then there was something about glide bombs and I was supposed to learn the letter combo but I couldn’t, I’ll take the MatsExtrude punishment but thanks anyway.
Had to change place, the previous one has apparently closed for a week for cleaning because some “white man” managed to let in about twenty small monkeys when he confused the door to the toilet with the door to the garden last week and left it wide open – the kitchen took a severe hit we were told when we called to book a table. But we have found a new good regular spot without a garden and monkey-free.
20:12 – MatsExtrude
Hmm, changing place? Monkeys? Oh well.
So you got banned and not even a legal guardian helped.. That’s okay. No one here will judge you for that.
Worse is that you can’t keep track of the glide bombs.. Sad!
🤣
10:05 – Johan No.1
The Lions ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1656668621123510274?s=46&t=vl2E0IR7YnEXvqBV71n0Yw
Just when you thought it couldn’t get better, we learned that “several” Storm Shadow missiles have been delivered by the UK – a very big boom for Russians in the rear. Remember the discussion about the UA surprises we would see? This was one of them.
The second, which is probably a mix of Tochka U, Grom, GLDSB, is that UA knocked out “11 command posts” yesterday. They might also use JDAM for those, and we basically know that GLDSB has now been used in combat.
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1656881016433197056?s=46&t=vl2E0IR7YnEXvqBV71n0Yw
You remember the HIMARS party early autumn and how they moved everything beyond HIMARS range. Now the same party is happening again for a few weeks.
11 command posts mean that 11 units do not get responses to their radio calls and according to what we have learned about the Russians, they then become passive or flee.
A genius without early hair loss posted the link below in yesterday’s thread this morning, if you knock out many command posts it becomes chaos, if you knock out logistics it becomes more chaos, and chaos breeds chaos.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1656891350808252419?s=46&t=vl2E0IR7YnEXvqBV71n0Yw
We started writing over a week ago that RU losses partly also depend on UA attacks. I think it is becoming increasingly clear when there is less Russian activity but their losses are skyrocketing. Having just come out of their own winter offensive heavily battered, it will be difficult to counter the same size of losses from UA attacks.
The videos from Azov’s shining advance were interesting – I saw “armored shock” (which I believe is an established term, we’ve probably discussed it in the thread?), T64 crashed straight into the defense system and a Russian in a trench left the trench and started running in circles.
Then came the M113 with suppressive fire and unloaded infantry who took care of the remnants and began rolling up along the defense lines.
This bodes well for the future because a running Russian who has thrown away his personal weapon is easier to take down than a Russian in cover with near-weapon and presence of mind.
Panic is probably another word for what we saw?
It is good that we have moved on from the word reconnaissance battles. Yesterday it seemed the Russians had woken up and Rybar has posts about 30,000 Ukrainians who pose a threat to Belgorod – we all understand that they did not arrive yesterday but have been grouped there for a long time. There is an armored brigade up there so one absolutely projects a threat to Belgorod (I wonder if UA is also fueling this with psyops?).
Then there was a genius in the thread, I don’t remember who (not myself, that is), who raised the idea that UA would flank the northern flank of the Svatove line by making a loop into Russian territory – that would be hysterically fun to see.
We have had flashes about all these battles at Kupiansk, Kreminna, Vuhledar, southern front, crossing of the Dnipro (they have had presence at the Antonovsky bridge eastern side for a long time), Avdiivka and so on.
When Bakhmut totally derailed, everything came at once in all media and gave the impression that everything happened yesterday but there has been increased intensity since April 10, 2023 according to UA themselves and the undersigned blew the whistle as loud as he could on May 4.
There is zero reason for UA not to exploit this but they should continue to press everywhere. If they lean back and stop offensive operations, I leave cornucopia (and will come back under another name), the coffee grounds were that clear.
The maneuver brigades have been forward deployed for a long time, ammunition and fuel likewise – in Bakhmut they could probably have started offensive operations for over a month or so if they wanted?
The twelve-dollar question – has RU pulled out VDV from Bakhmut?
We had no idea that the 72nd brigade was in Bakhmut, they were last at Vuhledar, and the area was supposed to be defended by VDV.
Follow-up question – what does it look like down at Vuhledar if they have started pulling units from there?
That it was Gazprom PMC, Wagner and 72nd Brigade in an area previously defended by VDV is highly interesting, I think.
Next question – fighting in the dark, we haven’t seen it on film yet but could it contribute to the hard breakthroughs?
If you are picky, Azov is one of the newly formed brigades with some Western equipment but what we probably think of is when the brigades with Bradley and Leo2 arrive.
I actually have no idea where they are at all but I believe UA is continuing with the existing 20 brigades around Bakhmut. Any of them could absolutely have Western armor but they are not the offensive reserve held back for a presumed steamroller operation against the southern front.
However, it would be smart to show such a brigade at Bakhmut to fool the Russians that it is the main attack, there are many layers to the Ukrainian psyops onion.
If UA can cut the two N-S roads into Bakhmut and also the W-E one, it is game over for infantry in defense inside this area if they happen to have vehicles. If they go on foot, game over even more.
Presumably, RU has gone into some kind of deep defense but with a little luck they are too weak further in – we shall see.
I am quite sure that the units around the Bakhmut settlement are mostly infantry and few vehicles.
Then the flank protection presumably has heavy vehicles but VDV is low on that and the 72nd Brigade had already been beaten at Vuhledar.
Then there was Gazprom’s PMC which is probably not armor-heavy either.
If they get inside the Russians’ decision circle, and it doesn’t seem that hard, then it can go fast.
Then it is a mosaic of different RU units that do not communicate with each other so with a little luck not everyone gets orders to retreat in time and it is difficult to coordinate the defense.
We know the attack vector Azov chose and it could go towards Kodema or Zaitseve.
We know about another attack vector up at Soledar but there it is opsec. An obvious second leg to such an extent that it has made Patton really, really jealous.
As many have written – it is easier to be the attacking party and have full control, especially as the Russians just send in more at one point in a small string.
To get a defense that works requires smart planning, enough units and dynamic combat – and you don’t know where UA will strike, and you don’t know if the defense is adequate before UA strikes.
They will have an incredibly hard time from now on, lots of omeprazole in the battle command.
We have previously painted descriptions that it would be like old times’ wagon forts when Ptgb spun around groups of Russians. The description from the Azov attack certainly sounded like that and if it turns out that it is mostly infantry light on near-weapon that would be brilliant.
Now to the kicker –
-There are 20 brigades and 5 artillery brigades from UA in the area.
-What can RU do?
-Retreat or try to defend by bringing in reserves from other front sections seems like the only two choices here?
-Where is Ukraine’s offensive reserve of 20 top-equipped brigades?
-Not in Bakhmut anyway 😀
-You see where this is going, right?
With a bit of luck, there will be orders from a lone man in Altai on the caviar diet to defend Bakhmut at all costs.
Then they pull units from another front and UA strikes there instead.
If they choose not to defend Bakhmut, there will be a fox hunt like no other for a while, and then UA can project a threat against Horlivka and press in the direction of Alchevsk.
Not a chess move, but pieces have been moved so RU command starts to flicker with their gaze and sweat on their foreheads here – very neat.
Now RU has desperately tried to start reserve exercises in spring instead of autumn. Since it is known what is going on, they will probably be hunted down instead of queues at the mobilization depots. Those they find will probably be put into defense in about a month.
The mobilization that was voluntary and announced on April 7 can be guessed to have amounted to nothing.
If you start mobilizing inexperienced victims, it takes three months before they can be effective.
Do you think UA will wait until the Russians have filled their graves?
Probably not, the low point is now.
In September 2022, they failed to exploit it; there are good reasons to believe they can exploit breakthroughs better this time and that they will do so.
It is very good that we no longer have to cook up good stories out of nothing and that we are now in the starting phase (window) of UA’s spring offensive; it feels more honest somehow, and one can stop buying indulgences to get inner peace 😀
You can guess that when the chaos is absolutely total in Bakhmut, things will start moving at the next location. It is impossible to predict the timing since it depends on so many factors, but that it will come and that it is in the near future we can be sure of.
The window for offensive operations has opened and it’s stepping on the gas 👍
I will look for the battle plan posted in the thread a few months ago this weekend.
UA has advanced southwest of Vuhledar, guessing they are after Pavlivka?
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1656571938179895297?s=46&t=7Gt5ltNBjIULf6pq39k_aw
A tank company presumably grouping for battle.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1656519770861125635?s=46&t=YUpiHYn9EZRseuJjmNxL1A
Here you have the walking legend Accentmannen who has learned to draw on maps.
Is there anyone in the thread who still says reconnaissance combat, hands up if so.
https://youtu.be/V2xK5CuhCJI