11:43 – Johan No.1
Saw the Accentman posted in today’s thread where RU believed UA is attacking with three battalions in total.
If RU had full-strength regiments and brigades in the area, there should have been violent counterattacks by now; the task force should strike promptly against breakthroughs and SV if Bakhmut failed, apparently it did.
What surprises me is how poor the defense is; these are strategically important points that RU abandons as soon as UA presses on.
This is very exciting.
11:55 – Johan No.1
“Strategically important” was the wrong phrase by the way, a bit early here but I’m getting there. Had a sober, ape-free Friday pub yesterday 👍
12:50 – Johan No.1
Muntz has been saying this for months already, he is an honest guy.
The million-dollar question now is whether Bakhmut is representative of the condition of the barbaric horde or if it is an outlier.
So far, they have used less than brigade strength of existing units and achieved great success. We have not yet seen the Western-equipped “elite brigades” in combat and their capability should be much higher in everything, IFV, MBT, night fighting and brigade artillery?
13:20 – MatsExtrude
👍 Like beautiful poetry!
11:35 – Johan No.1
Now UA is probably jumping right inside the RU decision circle at the Bakhmut front.
Abandoned positions SW of the Bakhmut settlement while Wagner continues to attack in Bakhmut and at the same time UA is advancing north of Bakhmut at two (2) points.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656975959680077824?s=46&t=D57NBCS3CqT8UxIVjVmmbQ
The mosaic of units does not seem to communicate with each other and different units do not understand what is happening within the same geographic area.
An order to retreat will be missed by some units and others will drive straight into the UA front line that has passed them and die.
South of the 72nd brigade stands either a DPR brigade or a VDV brigade – Erik14 reported yesterday that it was a regiment from 106 VDV so we go with that.
Now I have actually looked at Accentmannen and the paragraph below is stolen from him: above (north of) the 72nd brigade was apparently the 4th Motorized brigade, an LNR brigade if I understand correctly.
The 4th abandoned Klischivka which is the next defense in depth and there Wagner had to reinforce so it would not collapse completely.
The 4th Separate motorized brigade is supposed to be up near Soledar according to the unit maps.
In a small geographic area there were at least two brigades and two PMCs (Wagner and Gazprom), what a mess.
I believe we got some explanation of how the defense looks in depth but we still do not know how deep they have chosen to defend.
North of Bakhmut was the 9th motorized brigade which retreated and is supposed to be up in northern Luhansk near Kupiansk.
Now I understand why Defmon stopped updating his map because it is a crazy mess. Units are moved between different fronts completely without plan and captured soldiers have testified about this themselves.
Then a note that the 200th Motorized Brigade has left positions from Manul – has anyone managed to find the locations because I did not?
My big question is the same as yesterday – where is the VDV, we know that a month or months ago the VDV “took over” the attacks inside Bakhmut AND they were supposed to take over the entire flank protection, I don’t quite remember when this was.
You remember the post about how Wagner defended less and less area and VDV attacked – it was the elite that attacked according to Gregg and on the unit maps we saw various VDV regiments moving in around Bakhmut.
Now they have swept along half the left flank and that is LNR, DPR and previously worn brigades and for me there are too many brigades in too small an area – something is not right.
Or it is if RU has sent in completely exhausted brigades that have been decimated to very small strength as flank protection at Bakhmut because it is calm there.
A very large mosaic of different brigades that have been worn down to a couple of companies each – they have already attacked over half the southern flank. This is starting to feel like the very definition of a Potemkin village but I understand that I am running far ahead right now and need to calm down because I am wildly guessing about the condition of the brigades – flagging that it might be an acute relapse into optimism.
What we DO know is that one (1) UA brigade routed two RU brigades and one PMC and that it took one more PMC to stabilize the situation.
I am starting to suspect that they have pulled the VDV away from Bakhmut but where then or are they finished?
There should be about 25,000 Russian barbarians at the Bakhmut front but that is probably from S Bakhmut up to Soledar?
UA has a sledgehammer of maybe +80,000 of existing brigades in the area to strike along that front and it seems like capability and quality beats quantity in the fights we have seen so in the end maybe they conduct the operation with few brigades.
When UA eventually chases Wagner et.al around in Bakhmut until they pant and sit down on a stump and give up then suddenly a northern attack vector towards Horlivka opens up that RU has not built defenses against – it could be exciting if it goes fast here.
The other attack vector in Operation Bakhmut seems to be somewhere around Soledar and straight south, opsec is probably tight up there but UA has advanced hard somewhere up there as well.
When over TIME the area is cleaned up there will be a SOUTH push towards Alchevsk under (south of) Siversky Donets and that area should be the worst defended of all fronts.
RU must right now decide if they want to reinforce the Bakhmut front or if they want to withdraw.
The End for the operation to liberate Bakhmut.
From N of Vuhledar to Horlivka we should see increased pressure and I think we hear about it, if it breaks they probably accelerate but the main purpose is not to take terrain or to strike in that area presumably, it should be to tie down RU troops at Horlivka and the city of Donetsk which are high-value targets to defend.
An early idea in the thread was that UA would conduct shooting across the Dnieper which went on defense in easily defensible communities under their own artillery umbrella and CAS which RU then needed to eliminate the threat from and they would take existential losses already during the advance across the open fields. Operation cross the Dnieper which we always believed strongly in.
I see signs of more ambition and having a fully developed bridgehead around the Antonovsky bridge, it is in an area with a lot of cover.
They must secure Khakovka I guess but it will be difficult to cross the open fields that start immediately after the settlement?
And north of that there are good communities to go on defense in.
My thought is that UA is landing SE Kinburn Spit at suitable places with marines, or alternatively projecting that they will do so.
They are also crossing the Dnieper at several places and building up a proper heavy bridgehead in the area SE of the Antonovsky bridge.
If they simultaneously get a breakthrough at the southern front RU will probably voluntarily empty the area out of fear that the “Crimean bridges” (the land connection to Crimea) will be cut.
Then UA avoids having to take the area in combat and just rolls in when the pirra with the washing machine has left.
They project such a strong threat that RU simply runs away in the area behind the southern front.
However, a breakthrough is required for that and if they fail at the southern front they can try from the Dnieper, but they do not need to advance in both places (I think).
In any case, the ball is rolling, the window for offensive has opened and I think Prigozhin’s talk-shout videos contribute to demoralizing RU defense quite a lot. The army has known that Wagner is a bit better than them and now they are getting beaten.
If you are a Russian soldier at the southern front and see how UA cuts through in days in Bakhmut, and you know you are second best – then you probably look for alternatives.
Looking at how the artillery is positioned in Bakhmut, they pre-emptively engage the next attack target directly and do not stop – signaling an ambition to press further.
The psyops are running at full speed and RU is worried about attacks on Belgorod among other places. This ties down troops, UA can always fire some artillery, conduct some drone warfare and some reconnaissance moving within Russia, making the threat of an imminent offensive acute and must be countered by tying down units there.
The main attack target is probably the southern front, at least that’s what the undersigned believes.
Then we have command and war, UA has so far proven to be very quick at exploiting openings and if they get a sniff of, say, Horlivka and feel they have the opportunity, they will probably go for it?