10:48 – Johan No.1
Why do you think the US has several heavy naval visits around the Baltic Sea right now, renewed UA offensive maybe and security against some Russian diversion attempt?
In the coffee grounds there are rings that never end, some kind of background vibrations it seems.
Isn’t it starting to feel like there is more than Bakhmut 2.0 in the works in the near term here?
Since May 4 when the window for offensive operations opened (yes it was in a cloud of whisky…) I haven’t seen any reason for UA to wait long (months) because time is good for Putin. That the Russians on their own have reached a new low point is crystal clear and that the window for offensive operations has opened is also (to me) crystal clear.
Now we have reasoned a bit about northern Luhansk and whether they are locking in Russians on Crimea or letting them sprint over the bridge but other parts of the big campaign plan still stand.
It is admittedly a bit “quiet” since we don’t get big Saving Private Ryan-type conquests but –
-RU is moving large amounts of troops within Ukraine, they have been forced to reinforce Bakhmut and evidently they must strengthen the northern front with units that have been stationed inside Ukraine.
-pre-battle strikes deep and near the front are astronomical – there is no better word for this firestorm actually.
-UA has rotated the troops in Bakhmut for round two and RU has prepared a new defensive line at Svitlodarsk – Popasna and Wagner has begun spontaneously withdrawing from their defensive positions.
-all maneuver brigades have been staged for a good while.
This is not a little activity, it’s like an anthill seeing the anteater coming – that’s the level of activity here.
UA air force is very active, RU air force is losing planes faster than they fall from the sky. There are also very mysterious explosions at airports.
UA can gain air superiority by denying the Russians that – partly shooting down planes so fear of flying spreads among Russian pilots and partly by knocking out front-line aircraft with long-range everything.
During the Russian air bombing of the Belgorod raid we saw an important thing – there were no guided Russian JDAMS but dumb ammunition dropped straight over the target and they missed as well.
Inexperienced pilots and lack of this deadly guided JDAM ammunition are two suggestions here?
Then they seem to try missile attacks as much as they can and that is quite little right now. Also they are searching high and low for cities without air defense, anything seems okay as long as they get a hit on buildings. They do what they can to strike back but it’s jabbing in the air and sobbing.
UA has had two very successful offensive operations in May where RU has been forced to make large troop movements to counter – which means they have weakened elsewhere on the front, right?
They have made them pull troops from what we think are the primary targets to the secondary targets – completely according to plan presumably.
Then we have seen some surprises – Belgorod raids, Storm Shadow and F-16 so far. Wild guess is that there are a couple of Easter eggs we don’t know about.
The genius LARSP wrote the following yesterday regarding my thoughts about whether the Russians managed critical thinking and would understand not to leave northern Luhansk.
“This is an interesting thing that might be worth further study. My theory is that Russians can very well be intelligent on an individual level, but not on a group level. When it comes to groups it is important to always think of yourself first, because no one else will do it. This causes ‘group’ and larger units not to do what is best for the group. A form of ‘Tragedy of the Commons’, taken to the extreme.”
Now I am not even an enthusiastic amateur but handing over Donbas in LPR and DPR care feels a bit like a quick-fix for the Russian command actually – they could be that stupid if things really get tight.
Then the 1st and 2nd Army corps will directly do what is presumably best for them and surrender 😀
(Yes I am the only one pushing their surrender but want to remind that since the probability of UA winning the war is just as high the probability for these army corps to surrender is just as high, right?)
ISW, which we have always respected since the beginning of the war, believes UA will exploit Wagner’s retreat in Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1662341324664627202?s=46&t=Aq3vA4PXxUFddHC2c1DTcw
There is footage of Prigozhin having left Bakhmut now, a stronger offensive indicator you probably have to look for.
Here you have the Freedom Russia raids into Belgorod explained, was up from the blogger and the thread so really last on that but two companies of Russians were killed according to their statement and we see quite a lot of death in the film, the drone weapon is exactly as effective as we thought it would be and they obviously had plenty of indirect fire.
They took small losses as expected and are probably planning the next raid.
The most important thing is that they fought at a numerical disadvantage.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1662092425811091457?s=46&t=Aq3vA4PXxUFddHC2c1DTcw
Something that is absolutely hysterically funny is that Russia has so many Indian rupees piled up that they have become worried – they can’t exchange them for a usable currency and you can’t buy Tata mopeds with everything.
Now this was the whole point of having the dollar as the world currency and the currency you traded in, right – that you would get paid for your products in a currency you could use.
As a buyer you then had to figure out how to get hold of dollars to be able to buy the coveted products.
Russia has long pushed the line that BRIICS should trade without routing through the dollar to break “US hegemony”.
Russia got exactly what they wanted and now sits crying on top of a mountain of unusable Indian rupees.
Then China has abandoned the project to build a gas pipeline to Russia so they won’t be able to sell more of their gas there either.
Putin has basically broken the back of the Russian economy here it feels like, the only ones who want to trade with Russia are countries whose currencies are not viable on the international market.
And the rest of the world actually doesn’t care, we found new sellers and buyers for everything, adjusted and moved on.
Russia stands there with a wrecked economy and dreams of the tsarist times which they are well on their way to landing in economically.
At this time last year, we were looking at FIRMS and seeing Russian artillery barrages spreading out. We saw videos posted by soldiers in the trenches where there was relentless artillery fire (there was a term during WW1 called drumfire, I think, and now I understand why) that must have taken a huge toll mentally.
The soldiers described the Russian air force as a swarm of hornets, and they were noticeably worried.
Both of these Russian capabilities are almost absent today, and Ukraine has artillery superiority (and with the drone weapon) wherever they want.
Old truths no longer apply either; around Bakhmut and into Belgorod, UA attacked while outnumbered but used the full range of capabilities – artillery, the drone weapon, and mechanized combat – and they immediately defeated numerically superior Russian units.
Now, Ukraine certainly has the numbers on its side anyway, but a couple of the heavy hitters will be able to shake an entire front again just like at Kharkiv and Izyum.
At Bakhmut, maybe 3 out of 20 participated in combat and made a difference.
This time the Russian side is in infinitely worse shape while Ukraine has built a world-class capability.
Trust the plan, but not as the orange man intended; a lot is happening all the time, and just because there hasn’t been a Saving Private Ryan offensive yet doesn’t mean the ball isn’t rolling—it is.
10:48 – MatsExtrude
Oh, congratulations DENGAMLE for being last but also for the first time not having to clench your fist in your pocket!
11:07 – Johan No.1
Increased GPS interference in the Baltic States, first time seen. Previously only around Kaliningrad coast.
https://twitter.com/erikkannike/status/1662382655856312321?s=46&t=EK8Ttk3m3fMNArG0vkUHpQ
11:10 – Johan No.1
Recently, my attempts to calculate the numbers have ceased for the simple reason that it’s no longer necessary.
We know that a UA mechanized brigade can strike and come out winning from a disadvantage and that the capabilities that would protect Russian units – artillery and air force – are quite battered.
For my part, we have reached a point where it’s no longer relevant to try to figure out the numbers because UA is heading for a smashing win here.
11:14 – MatsExtrude
+1
Summary:
Just like a rejected incel that no one wants to know about, the Russian grinds away and if they happen to arrive it’s wasted and ends up in the wrong place.
+
The ball is round!
11:16 – Johan No.1
What the heck, that was a bit unexpected MXT but a very good analogy of how Putin probably started his morning in the bunker before digging into the caviar 👍
11:26 – MatsExtrude
Sorry, outdated language.
A bit like DENGAMLE who found his fist, I felt it was time to throw in the gloves and really mock the pathetic Russian.
Thought incel was a good description of their isolation.. then the rest came by itself.
11:38 – Johan No.1
That said, we should count losses and so on, but guessing how much the Russians possibly have left is behind us.
11:39 – Johan No.1
🤣🤣
12:18 – Johan No.1
Anyone in the thread who can figure out where Shchetynivka is?
According to Gregg, the 245th RU regiment has retreated but where the heck is that, they should be just west of Svatove but can you trust that and there is no Shchetynivka there.
And what is RVC they attacked with?
It’s significant if RU also folds up in northern Luhansk but one doesn’t dare draw conclusions before figuring out where it is.
12:21 – Johan No.1
What triggered the expression was that China’s peace plan didn’t contain anything that would allow Russia to win the war.
No territorial concessions or hard demands.
Then they never came out with major weapons support to match the West, which would have been the other thing that could have made a difference, after the Russians learned Chinese.
Then I thought it fit well but it got quite lively 😀
Now five months later, I think it fits just as well.
12:26 – MatsExtrude
Ukraine is strange. Either there are ten places with the same name or it doesn’t exist at all.🤷♂️
Jokes aside, can’t damn well find that place or anything similar (before I got tired of looking).
Interesting anyway.
19:17 – Johan No.1
Maybe last on that but insanely fun and a bit too early for my campaign plan, 2 weeks until the bridge goes down 👍
A website has been launched again with a countdown clock, regarding the Crimea bridge; see link below. #CrimeaIsUkraine
crimeabridge404.online
https://twitter.com/miguel_l71/status/1662427573861724161?s=46&t=7PmJEqCPqRPW1DCxETKu3A
20:53 – Johan No.1
Has this been posted?
Sound of music.
https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/status/1662484648251752448?s=46&t=MeZKOjvP0RTBVEH_QzXSEQ
09:22 – Johan No.1
Good morning from shark-infested waters, today they had 50 small fishing canoes around the dredger in a protest, someone with a sea view probably paid them to disrupt the work.
The night shift was historic as usual, that 4km column outside Moscow you want to know what it was, which direction were they heading – Belgorod or the Kremlin?
Wild rumors last night, I have personally put a slight damper on Gregg and choose not to jump on everything because now he seems to be running a lot of Gregg-hangers.
09:24 – Johan No.1
Eye for an eye (or whatever it’s called…).
Ukraine is currently completely smashing the Russians’ rear and the Russians have to do something, they shoot everything they can at what they can, it’s very little and it does almost no damage.
You can already see the difference in what Ukraine takes out and what the Russians take out (then we don’t get to know about high-value targets UA loses of course but it’s less than the Russians’ perceived inferno).
09:28 – Johan No.1
Yeah damn, after the war medals that were otherwise handed out maybe one per year will hang on every soldier here.
You have snipers who have confirmed hundreds of hits and PV shooters with dozens of vehicles knocked out.
There was a soldier who was asked how many he shot in a single trench system, “I killed eleven.”
This war is completely incomprehensible, the intensity is like World War II but it hasn’t spread to the world yet.
10:39 – Johan No.1
The Taliban have thus invaded Iran.
Who paid them for this 😀
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1662718486987132930?s=46&t=lj7NohXeH_nJTHxtFagcOg
10:41 – Johan No.1
They will be more enthusiastic than when they beat the USA.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1662730236864217088?s=46&t=lj7NohXeH_nJTHxtFagcOg
10:40 – Johan No.1
The old man gets to proclaim himself the winner again in yesterday’s thread, that fight was tough and he won with the winged words – “Not first, but it is mighty”.
Feels like it will be carved into churches in the future.
The same day he took the somewhat enormous step and posted a Twitter link and managed to find the gold-knot-fist emoji 👍
Triple congratulations then 🏆