12:09 – MatsExtrude
I thought like you that they would press harder on the flanks and that Klishchiivka would fall quickly. Probably because they don’t want to commit reserves but use regular troops and make sure to take it slow and methodical to avoid unnecessary losses. There is really no reason to rush before the offensive starts. The Russians are where they are.
It will be interesting to see if there will be more pinpricks into Bilhorod/Belgorod and Bryansk etc. and if they might even raise the stakes. I think they have a lot to gain by shaking up the Russians that way.
12:14 – Johan No.1
New destination for the 4km long military convoy – Belarus?
GPS disruptions also due to Belarus?
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1662758975475949569?s=46&t=lj7NohXeH_nJTHxtFagcOg
12:14 – Johan No.1
Wild guesses of course 😀
12:22 – Johan No.1
Another severe pollen warning 😭
Here you have the reason why Putin should dangle from a lamppost and UA gets to do everything they want and can until they have won.
https://twitter.com/kremlintrolls/status/1662759512233717760?s=46&t=OOfhyy-C66bWI6ssXucVbw
12:28 – Johan No.1
I think so too.
12:30 – Johan No.1
I’m spinning further on extremely loose rumors without substance (so far).
Either RU opens a diversion or a takeover in Belarus, or they try to preempt Ukraine, which will conduct a Belgorod raid in Belarus on steroids?
It seems to be something out of the ordinary anyway?
12:35 – Johan No.1
Summing up all the information,
-Shoigu torpedoed while on a road trip from Minsk.
-Lukashenko has drunk soda with Putin (again).
-a 4km long convoy of military vehicles 20km outside Moscow.
-reports of Russian units heading towards Belarus.
-continued chaos in Belgorod.
-reports of “raids” (or at least “something”) in Bryansk and Kursk oblasts.
That it would spill over to Belarus where they have already had an attempt at popular uprising, now that all Russian units have left, is probably reasonable?
That the combat mustache and his Belarus brigade would want to infiltrate Belarus is also very likely?
12:36 – MatsExtrude
😭
12:39 – Johan No.1
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1662758975475949569?s=46&t=OOfhyy-C66bWI6ssXucVbw
15:59 – Johan No.1
The most beautiful words you will hear this weekend –
Wanted criminal Girkin hints at a coup d’état and civil war in Russia by the end of summer.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1662818729887973378?s=46&t=OOfhyy-C66bWI6ssXucVbw
(I’m listening MXT)
17:15 – MatsExtrude
👍 Translated version:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1662429293719298049?t=SSLTnYGRkz3ynHlcX0ruDg&s=19
17:38 – MatsExtrude
We’re not supposed to make predictions when it comes to underdogs but Girkin doesn’t care..😆
Funny otherwise when he accuses Prigozhin of breaking the law through criticism of the army, while he himself complains just as much..
Then that he claims Prigozhin has committed mutiny is a serious accusation..
For a while I thought it might mostly be for show but there’s probably something deeper going on.
18:10 – MatsExtrude
Now I’m disillusioned!
I thought you only delivered irrefutable, clinically razor-sharp conclusions based on in-depth, well-thought-out analyses grounded in indisputable facts!
But you’re just guessing!😱
But of course, you might still be right!😉
07:27 – Johan No.1
Good morning and thanks for the night shift.
Here are yesterday’s losses for the Russian side, no direct highlights except fuel trucks.
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1663050724924698630?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
07:57 – MatsExtrude
Not too bad after all but sad to see lower artillery numbers for the second day in a row.
UAVs are a solid record, the previous record was 46.
08:32 – Johan No.1
37 missiles last night apparently.
One remembers when they launched 100.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1663069386435878913?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
11:33 – Johan No.1
It is very chaotic in Belgorod Oblast, one can conclude.
Gregg wrote that the 245th Regiment has retreated 10km.
233Pead wrote yesterday when I couldn’t find the 245th;
“What I find about the 245th RU regiment is the 245th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment which according to DeepStateMAP is located SW of Belgorod, and even more to the SW closer to Ukraine there is a village called Shchetinovka. Could that be what is meant?”
We have many reports of explosions and firefights in Belgorod Oblast recently, that is, after the “Belgorod raid” ended.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1662430142092787713?s=46&t=7PmJEqCPqRPW1DCxETKu3A
The conclusion can only be that they did what we thought – new raids as much as they can manage?
It is not clear to me if there is also some kind of uprising in Belgorod Oblast or if everything is infiltrating units.
The 245th regiment was, by the way, located near northern Luhansk before they were moved there.
Now I’m curious where that “4km long column with armor 20km from the Kremlin” that Mandaghelaveckan posted is heading? Towards the Kremlin or towards Belgorod Oblast, or as Dengamle suggested, some vehicles with 500m gaps?
Then it is starting to grow stronger that the intensity will increase a couple of notches here.
Volnovakha is subjected to very heavy pre-bombardment and soldiers have been seen retreating from the city, about thirty in number. Good for Erik14 that he gets to keep his five hundred then 😀
At Bakhmut it has probably played out just as we thought – they are hammering against the VDV (or maybe they were pulled out?) at Opytne-southern Zaitseve line while taking more terrain north of Bakhmut.
Klishchiivka took a bit longer than I thought, it apparently hasn’t fallen yet.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1662574465891418112?s=46&t=lj7NohXeH_nJTHxtFagcOg
What we absolutely should see now is the next phase, if they have managed to cause this much confusion up in Belgorod and at Bakhmut there are strong reasons to open something new and a river near you is probably next either just before or simultaneously with offensive operations at the southern front if they follow the big campaign plan. It is also at the southern front they must achieve full breakthroughs to reach Azov.
Cutting the Crimean Bridge in 16 days is probably too early, they probably want first a retreat down there to get rid of units from retreating into Donbass and then either force a spontaneous retreat over the Crimean Bridge or cut the bridge and force surrender – Crimea is notoriously difficult to defend and they didn’t have tungsten rain and drone swarms in previous wars.
If they cut the bridge now, the units behind the southern front will probably try to retreat towards East Mariupol instead?
https://twitter.com/miguel_l71/status/1662427573861724161?s=46&t=7PmJEqCPqRPW1DCxETKu3A
Or they reach Azov in a week, a breathtaking thought…
May is by far the highest month for Russian artillery fired, sky-high over the second place.
The same applies for special equipment.
MLRS is lower but that may be because RU uses them less, MXT in his brilliance guesses it is because they regroup faster.
LV is the third highest month.
Armor is so low that it supports the thesis that RU is very short on hard vehicles 😀
Surely there is an astronomical pre-bombardment ongoing always 👍
DASTE was quick with a tweet yesterday from Poromenko that “now the motherkissers want peace” (freely quoted).
We know that peace overtures are ongoing all the time and we know that UA does not waver because once a week they go out with “the 1991 borders are non-negotiable”.
We heard just yesterday some Russian representative say that Ukraine must respect “new territorial realities”.
UA today has absolutely no reason to negotiate, they will take back their land by force if necessary – very soon too.
Russia on the other hand has the possibility to negotiate only as long as they have something to negotiate about – a few months more then.
We know that Scholz is supposed to talk to Putin again at some point. No shade on the well-dressed living god Scholz (seriously!) because he is probably the last Putin really has a chance to talk to and he will eventually have to receive the very reluctant – “we return all of Ukraine if Ukraine promises not to invade us, deal?”.
Germany’s Scholz Says Plans To Speak to Putin ’In Due Course’ (rferl.org)
For my part, I consider the Belgorod raid a new bargaining chip for UA that may have started to unlock positions a little bit.
That is a ball the Russian elite absolutely do not want to see rolling because then their lives are seriously in danger, they are afraid of one thing – revolution.
There has been an enormous amount of signal politics lately – Abrams, German missiles, M-16, Storm Shadow and so on.
Ukraine is also open about their spring offensive and how violent it will be and the raids into Belgorod were brilliant.
All this is naturally aimed at forcing the Russians to negotiate before they are forced to carry out this offensive with very heavy losses.
That said – Ukraine is not bluffing and will do what is required, we can be quite sure of that.
So the best outcome here would be if Russia understands what is coming and does the only right thing and admits defeat – the bubble list and you should not speculate on outcomes on this but there is absolutely a chance for such a scenario.
Today no one supports Russia, not even BRIICS and the RU economy is bleeding incredibly, they soon only have rupees left.
Now it seems the Russians have not understood the not so subtle hints here and it will become a “major offensive” of the whole thing.
According to the big campaign plan it will be very violent at the southern front where they must break through the defense and reach Azov and that is probably the phase now starting, presumably?