10:21 – Johan No.1
Forgot JDAMS and Meteor, they are terrible weapons.
10:32 – MatsExtrude
Yes, it will probably get really intense when the time comes!
Still, they are probably doing the right thing with this slower pre-attack fire as well. It’s not wrong to get rid of ammunition, logistics, and the occasional commander. Admittedly, the Russians might learn to move even further back, or to split up their depots, but that will anyway lead to slower and thus worse logistics.
12:09 – Johan No.1
Another day with relatively calm. At the risk of giving the gloomy ones a field day, I am of the strong opinion that one should not wait too long for the simple reason that offensive operations have an end date this fall, everyone discovered that last year, and time is also time for preparations for the Russians.
Then it may of course be that the Russians have not mobilized, so now they absolutely have nothing to send to Ukraine anyway, and that every day of pre-attack fire chips away a few hundred of the total, who knows.
The units have been deployed for a long time, we know that since even the home guard, which is probably the third line, finished their advance weeks ago.
It is basically dead quiet but things are happening around Bakhmut and up at the northern front right now – Belgorod is restless.
Then it is so that when the order for the opsec cover comes, it is because something is in the making.
Old truths no longer apply, we discovered, Ukraine does not need a company to beat a platoon, they need two mechanized infantry groups and a tank to chase away a platoon. They fight very effectively despite being numerically inferior both in Bakhmut and near Belgorod.
Something else we have also discovered no longer applies is the artillery and the damage it causes.
In WW2, the zone barrages made life miserable for defense in fortifications.
Now Ukraine has taken this to the next level and small clouds of drones drop wing grenades vertically and they target individual soldiers.
Then the artillery is accurate with guided ammunition.
You can thus methodically clear an entire fortification system over time as long as you have enough drones and some 777s or a HIMARS.
At the focal points, of course, they have that, and then indirect fire is not suppressive or wearing down the defense, it decimates the defense enough that the mechanized forces can go in and clean up without taking their own losses.
The Russians pile everything up so their near PV lies in a nice heap made for drone-dropped wing grenades. If they try to get up a PV missile, the drones are there immediately as well.
Very innovative, very effective, and very deadly.
Everything in Russia is deception, everything, including the dragon’s teeth that Surtrutn named “milk tetra packs”.
The link below is dragon’s teeth actually built that they failed to demolish so they had to remain. The Russians are really hopeless.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1662944099022897153?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
ISW, which we always like, believes that UA can go on the offensive in Bakhmut whenever they want.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1662974979464474627?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
RU has learned camouflage the hard way, this vehicle at least is starting to look like it has a tendency to be camouflaged.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1662987010737356802?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
ISW also agrees with the undersigned that things are full speed around Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1662987880665600000?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1662987885090357248?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
And in Belgorod, Russian artillery is being taken out if anyone thought the “Belgorod raid” was over, it is not, and it keeps going off there constantly.
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1663036723801075712?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
12:40 – MatsExtrude
+1
Yes, it’s time now!
Only two days left if it’s going to be a spring offensive.
Too bad about the rain, hope it’s not decisive. Maybe it’s even an advantage?
Even if it’s a bit difficult to get forward, maybe it’s easier to get Russians, who are involuntarily practicing frog swimming in the trenches, extra motivated to leave them as soon as possible if it’s really wet?
The Russian camouflaged tank… I wonder if the extended family sent all the Christmas decorations, in the form of fake plastic trees, they could find? It will burn unpleasantly well when it finally gets hit.
13:09 – Johan No.1
This is how poor Russia’s border protection is.
https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1663134103170850816?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ
13:09 – Johan No.1
They also ran an Afghan on that one 😀
13:37 – Johan No.1
Probably been up but taking fortifications in Bakhmut. Enormously strong sound impressions
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1663133979518672898?s=46&t=svrO2JeX-_q_uFhddvPeIw
18:44 – Johan No.1
Klischivka probably has to be overrun by mechanized forces at first glance but they seem to be trying to threaten with an encirclement by entering the cover southwest of Klischivka and then the forest that lies north of it.
If they can project an encirclement, the defense will probably run away as the Twitter users guessed, smart.
19:08 – MatsExtrude
The Accent guy was probably thinking about encirclement too if I remember correctly?
19:21 – Johan No.1
Maybe he was and not the Twitter gods.
21:31 – Johan No.1
Anyone who needs a more formal confirmation than this that the ball is rolling?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1663263126521888769?s=46&t=Bkw6fWp5Q-O7jcGTf8FuHA
23:11 – MatsExtrude
Ah, getting seasoned now. Could just be a feint to stress the Russians..😄
10:20 – Johan No.1
Blowing a hole in a battalion or a reduced brigade in defense with indirect fire goes pretty quickly with today’s arsenal.
A drone group can take out up to 10 vehicles on a night shift, so if you concentrate reconnaissance drones, various types of attack drones, and guided artillery, it doesn’t take long to cause irreparable damage.
Long front-line pre-attack fire also just allows RU to get their rapid reaction forces forward to try to plug the upcoming holes.
It should be short and very violent, absolutely.