12:23 – Johan No.1
Just want to say that I think the thread is doing a good job right now of not outing all attack vectors and what is happening.
I find much more on other channels than what we write here.
I think Erik14 took the lead on that and the rest followed obediently as they should 👍
12:23 – MatsExtrude
+1 The chaos in Belgorod/Bilhorod really shows how poorly prepared the Russians are and how they almost act paralyzed. I wouldn’t be surprised if it soon inspires other areas.
There has been some minor grumbling from a couple of places in the West about using military equipment that was given as gifts, but as long as they handle it neatly and don’t go after civilians, it probably won’t be more than that. Then again, civilians still suffer even if it concerns the Russian army that doesn’t even care about its own population but bombs and loots… That alone could increase the chance of internal breakdown.
Slava Ukraini!
12:28 – Johan No.1
Exactly, as long as they use the exact same roadmap that Russia used in Ukraine, who in the West can really complain since they did nothing until 2022.
13:21 – MatsExtrude
+1
13:28 – Johan No.1
I think Belgium’s prime minister should sit down and keep quiet 😐
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1665663060755849217?s=46&t=JU5r3e857hXng_CE7jW5jw
13:30 – MatsExtrude
Agree 110%!
13:35 – Johan No.1
Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia working to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian targets
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1665655983769636864?s=46&t=JU5r3e857hXng_CE7jW5jw
13:44 – MatsExtrude
+1 Good, we’ve suspected (or hoped) that all along.
15:07 – Johan No.1
Unclear if this is significant but the Vostok battalion, an LPR unit from the 2nd Army Corps (the rebels) is supposed to be north of the city of Donetsk according to all maps.
But evidently they have been moved down to the Vuhledar area.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1665694891358277633?s=46&t=JU5r3e857hXng_CE7jW5jw
Around Bakhmut the rebels recently took over.
One wonders if they have done something similar on the southern front?
15:08 – Johan No.1
It’s supposed to be a regiment and an LPR unit and shouldn’t be down there at all, but it seemed like it was?
15:09 – Johan No.1
Or maybe he wrote about others?
15:13 – MatsExtrude
“A substation is on fire in Smaznevo, Kraj Altaj region. The power supply has been cut off in an emergency throughout the Zalesovsky district, the head of the district said.”
15:14 – MatsExtrude
Oh well, should have been its own 🙂
15:15 – MatsExtrude
Could be, not sure he is on site himself.
16:17 – Johan No.1
This one has to be posted, the Russians know Rybar.
He gives the RU version of what is happening west of Vuhledar.
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1665722398237179904?s=46&t=JU5r3e857hXng_CE7jW5jw
16:23 – MatsExtrude
Yes, that has been circulating during the day so even the Russians can’t have missed it.
17:00 – Johan No.1
Alunda, I learned this from some god in the thread.
You can press the key in the lower left corner, the white square with a cross in it.
Then you press the period key.
Then you get a small window with all the emojis, click on one and voila, the thread comes alive.
17:07 – MatsExtrude
Another option is to right-click with the mouse (in the input field) and then select Emoji in the menu that appears. Not as fast but might be easier to remember than a keyboard combination.
17:16 – Johan No.1
Much easier, why did I never learn that.
17:22 – Johan No.1
Now they are attacking again in Bakhmut
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1665737974061867009?s=46&t=JU5r3e857hXng_CE7jW5jw
18:12 – MatsExtrude
Difficult if no one reports on it. I must have missed when Win + . came as a tip.
21:53 – MatsExtrude
Correction. Don’t care if he sits down or not but he should be quiet. So I agree 55%!
11:13 – Johan No.1
I know this is hoping for too much and that it’s the alcohol talking like this on a Monday morning but what if –
UA increases the pressure so much in Belgorod that Russia starts turning inward while projecting a major threat somewhere else.
And that this would be enough for the pressure cooker…
I believe that in terms of a pressure cooker, Belgorod is much more steam than anything else inside Ukraine, it is Russia and shows more clearly than anything else Russian incapacity.
Now you shouldn’t predict outcomes based on the bubbles so the above should be seen as wild speculation and completely disregarded, I’ll find my way out myself.
Over the past two days I think it’s becoming clear that UA has significantly reinforced the Belgorod offensive, or the Chaos in Belgorod, and that they have expanded broadly into towns south of the city of Belgorod.
Shebekino, a town with 40,000 inhabitants, has been completely evacuated and UA is using the full palette, drone weapons, heavy vehicles and artillery.
They also seem to have LV screen and sabotage patrols deep inside.
We said on the first day of the first Belgorod raid that it should not be underestimated and that still stands.
Now one is basically just waiting for new penetration points west and east of the current contested areas.
It’s a bit quiet about Urazovo and even a pathologically positive Johan No.1 understands that the UA side is hiding their losses here, it sounds a bit TOO good in the communication about this right now.
What I’m starting to wonder is if this becomes a flypaper for those who want to fight against Russia, exiled Russians and others, and that it just becomes a bigger problem flooding across the border?
There is another rope trick to use, that different parts of Russia start wanting their freedom and move – that the unrest spreads.
It’s not impossible – what is happening in St Petersburg right now, for example?
Then we have seen videos of anti-war actions in Moscow, no large demonstrations but people airing their dissatisfaction and not getting arrested for it which is new, before it was 25 years in the Gulag for a blank sheet of paper.
Then one must remember that they are currently fighting in an area about 30km wide or so and that the border is hundreds of kilometers long – the number of penetration points is almost endless.
I think UA has amplified its spring offensive very nicely here by trying to get maximum yield also through the Chaos in Belgorod.
We have also seen all the -stans hold meetings with the USA or China and become Putin-hostile so quite a lot is likely happening behind the scenes.
Now it’s apparently lively in Kyrgyzstan too.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1665620979844874240?s=46&t=nqxaaUTIAPFtGeE_Sy0Xmg
We must also not forget the other three or so liberation fronts and all the liberation deeds elsewhere in Russia – there are explosions everywhere every day all the time and Russia is completely unable to protect its territory right now. PerraG55 not to be forgotten – a lot of insurance fraud now according to him and we are probably overinterpreting.
There is also movement north of Bakhmut near Soledar and just south of the settlement in the forest area terrain was taken by a new brigade, 80th Airmobile. In Bakhmut they have probably finished rotating the units and are starting to push again.
If I have understood the southern front correctly, they have attacked the “salient” west of Vuhledar which lies right on the Oblast border. The Russians took that terrain when the battle plan was still to attack up along the oblast border and encircle everything – went so-so.
Yesterday we got reports that they gave up to 3km and the Accent man was even of the opinion that they gave up 5km in some place. Then counterattack and got stuck in minefields. High losses unfortunately as photos of destroyed Ptgb have come out.
According to earlier, I am of the opinion that offensive operations have been ongoing since around May 4 and that the window to start an offensive there somewhere opened, +/- a few days.
Below is of the same opinion but perhaps supports it better than my “in a cloud of whisky” which didn’t exactly score highest in trying to be serious.
https://twitter.com/crimsonshadowmk/status/1665471782428499973?s=46&t=nqxaaUTIAPFtGeE_Sy0Xmg
The constant discussion is what counts as offensive but the invasion of Belgorod is in full swing, there is movement around Bakhmut and now offensive operations have presumably started at the southern front.
So far it follows the big campaign plan, Bakhmut, diversion at the northern front (which went better than expected if you guess) and now they have opened up at the southern front.
We should try to follow the advice not to post too much and I find it hard to judge so it may be a bit vague sometimes but according to RU sources UA is now at dawn said to have carried out a major attack (about 30 vehicles) with mechanized forces against a few more towns.
Everything is second-hand sources on Twitter right now so even if you think the source posting is credible they have gotten the information from screaming pro-Russians.
This one may be the same as above or something else, who knows.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1665627068925706240?s=46&t=nqxaaUTIAPFtGeE_Sy0Xmg
At the southern front we have had at least two major attacks over a few days. According to earlier, the definition of reconnaissance battles is that you move forward until you make contact and then withdraw with platoon strength or similar. In yesterday’s attack they recaptured two towns and we will see how this morning’s attack develops.
We have a long summer ahead and every day you want this sh1tw4r to end 🤬
From my spectator seat it seems that Ukraine is trying to amplify the pressure on the Russian dictatorship as much as they can with all available means to make them turn inward or at least accept the fait accompli and withdraw from Ukraine.
There should be further temperature increases in that direction going forward and now the USA and EU should also hit with the last batteries of sanctions or whatever they have in store.
If you remember the wild speculations early in the war that “someone” would run landing craft in circles out in international waters off Vladivostok so the Russians would have to recall all units.
We have seen some of that, US naval presence, exercises in Finland and Poland moving units towards the Belarus border. More can be done, I think.
Diplomatic delegations should also be sent to all the -stans and propose trade and closer contact more than has been done today but I also understand that they have the other toddler to handle, China, so it may not be easy.
Ukraine can only do so much, or they have done enormously more than can be expected of them so far but the free West should increase pressure where they can on Russia to force their hand to retreat.
We have a long summer ahead of us as they say, but who would have thought there would be an invasion of Russia like this six months ago – if someone had brought up what is happening in Belgorod as a serious proposal back then, it probably would have caused a worse lynch mob atmosphere than when I suggested that China had thrown Russia under the bus 😀
There was even someone who wrote on the first day of the Belgorod raid that “the West will not allow that”.