07:41 – Johan No.1
Rybar reported increased activity over the Dnepr yesterday, Erik14 posted them, and the explosion should probably be seen as a defensive measure ahead of the upcoming crossing?
– UA can cross north of the dam, right?
-UA had a dam north of Khakovka where they held back water because they knew a Russian is always a Russian.
Barbarians 😡😡
07:42 – Johan No.1
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1665953311256608769?s=46&t=8hB4ynWiKjJEReHukPDmxQ
07:43 – Johan No.1
Sorry for the wrong post 👍
12:03 – Johan No.1
It turned out to be a sad morning but it helps to think about the whole picture.
Ukraine was attacked by Russia in 2014 and had a very turbulent time. That they have managed to land on their feet the way they have is somewhat incredible.
The war has been ongoing since 2014 and the first years were difficult.
They had every reason to become a country with proxy wars and Russia has really made an effort but somewhere the population has managed to unite around a common enemy and simply not given up.
There are countless unknown fallen heroes in this war that only a grieving wife and lonely children remember with a photo and burnt-out candles on the stove in the living room.
I followed the war directly in 2014 and Russia was always one step ahead on the ground and with their psyops.
It’s not hard to understand that they thought it would work again but Ukraine has gritted its teeth and bided its time like a sour Karelian brown bear.
I don’t remember when I stopped following “ATO” but it was several years before the war started, the first years after 2014 I spent time on it and when this war started my best outcome was that Russia “only” took all terrain up to the Dnepr.
That’s how marinated in Russian psyops one was unfortunately but that has been washed off and I try to forget it.
Khakovka may be a real low blow but it changes nothing in essence. Not even crossing the Dnepr stops it because there are suitable landing points north of Khakovka which now are probably easier to reach, if UA now intends to follow the battle plan with shooting across the river as a diversion (and which we later considered a full bridgehead).
That the country Russia is now invaded, seen in light of the above, is nothing less than a sensation. I know I keep harping on the chaos in Belgorod when everyone wants to talk about something else but it is so significant that I can’t let it go.
Surely they thought that after a week the Russians would have driven reinforcements along the entire border and the goal was achieved – to pull units from the primary attack targets down in Ukraine.
Now it has instead turned out that the country Russia did not have 150,000 reserves to send to the border as we were told were still in Russia and all the various agencies for national repression efforts are conspicuously absent.
The country is evidently wide open and right now three letter movements are fully exploiting it with UA wholehearted help of course.
I don’t believe for a second, Gregg, that it’s “a few dozen volunteers.” They have artillery, CAS, LV and armored support and those fighting often have Western weapons.
There is zero reason to stop this and there are strong reasons to export the recipe for success to other front sections against Russia and to all kinds of different areas in the country Russia.
Now I’m NOT supposed to speculate from the bubbles but I break that rule – Belgorod will become the downfall of the country Russia, it’s starting to emerge as the lit fuse here and none of Ukraine’s other pranks have even come close.
Those of you who feel it maybe doesn’t feel like that should consider that Ukraine has unlimited drones to send against Moscow and unlimited border to conduct raids over – this has only just begun.
After a year you start to slowly feel that you have gotten some snapshots into the Ukrainian soul – no way in hell they will stop, they will drive this home and then stand and beat a lying Putin with a hockey stick while they hop-stomp on him where it really hurts, while choking him with the goal over his neck so he barely manages to spit and hiss anymore where he lies writhing.
Now I might be stuck in a “general strike due to fraudulent increases in fuel prices” in the small country I’m guesting in just as I was about to go on vacation soon. It’s still up in the air.
Last time it happened I got stuck in Kuwait because of COVID and the family had gone on a short vacation.
It got boring after a few weeks and then there were 6.5 months left. Sat at the Hilton resort in a bungalow and it turned into a real Robinson Crusoe situation – unshaven, a half-hour Skype meeting per day with work, 12 hours of computer games and then oxfillet from the hotel or takeout from some American restaurant I had seen in a movie and wanted to try. The takeout was delivered by hotel staff on a tray with white gloves which was equally fun every day for seven months – you had to enjoy the little things standing there stroking your beard like a castaway.
I have taken all safety measures – chips, beer and a whisky and then we’ll see how it goes. We are not at pitchforks yet but the cheering over the new president died out pretty quickly when he doubled gasoline prices on his second day on the job. It went well last time even though one was more than a little tired of oxfillet after a couple of months.
Going through RU losses May 2023 we have the following that stand out –
-Rocket artillery – almost twice as high as the second highest month.
-LV – second highest month in the war.
-UAV – highest month in the war.
-Special equipment – highest month in the war.
In May RU offensive began to weaken and all capabilities are in the rear so UA has really stepped on the gas here.
I think this is enormously significant because there is the constant discussion that Ukraine is also exhausted.
They are evidently only so exhausted that they can still blow away the entire rear without problems and get the best month of the war for artillery.
Then when it comes to local offensives and what they attack – this war in many ways is the fight for dominant terrain. Ukraine may be hammering on some community we don’t really understand why but when it is taken a barrier is removed and they get a local breakthrough.
That said, I have a hard time understanding why they attack the bulge west of Vuhledar, low-lying terrain, do they intend to sneak forward in the valley or something?
At Bakhmut, it’s probably time for round two – the units have been rotated and they have pre-emptively attacked as much of the defense as possible now, and if I have interpreted it correctly, there is movement everywhere, south and north of the settlement in Bakhmut and up by Soledar.
There appear to have been quite significant successes there, but it’s only the Twitter gods and maybe a bit early to shout today’s first “hurrah” before some kind of semi-solid confirmation comes.
At the southern front, the scope of offensive operations should increase, and after all, it’s only a 56-minute drive down to Azov from the three attack vectors, so a breakthrough of 3-5 km in one day is quite an event. For me, offensive operations are happening everywhere as usual and there are big reasons to be happy.
Every day you want this damn war to end, but remember one thing – if this had gone as Russia wanted, we would be sitting with BBC reports about ethnic cleansings in Ukraine and the exile Ukrainian at work would have gotten upset at every coffee break, shouting about the abuses.
We would have worried about electricity prices and migration instead and thought that the exile Ukrainian at work was exaggerating a bit because no one can be that evil, and Ukraine’s population would have slowly been broken and cleansed completely without making the headlines.
Russia is doing as they always have, with the difference that this time they have to pay the entire bill with interest and face all the consequences – it will be a hell of a reckoning for them and this geopolitical atomic bomb is not to be taken lightly. Straight into the wall, and when the pressure cooker bulges this much, historically they have had larger internal movements.
13:45 – Johan No.1
Now comes the World Championship in explanations for the unfortunate accident, but we must not forget that orders were given for tons of explosives in the engine room, it was transported there covertly and carried down over a long time.
Sanctioned from the highest authority, of course, and the detonation itself is almost secondary, it was almost a given that they would proceed with it since it would be smart from a war-technical perspective. Then that it has a whole palette of consequences, right in the middle of the palette with all the other consequences, they probably couldn’t care less – straight into the wall.
Concern for Enerhodar now, we know they have planted explosives there too – the world community should intervene here.
13:51 – Johan No.1
RU has two cards left to play, nuclear weapons and Enerhodar (since they cannot mobilize…).
They have planted explosives in Enerhodar for a long time and a month ago they reinforced with new units – they have no intention of abandoning it.
They can only fire tactical nuclear weapons at eastern Ukraine since all missiles are shot down in the western part of the country.
If Khakovka has no practical consequences, then reasonably the probability is higher for Enerhodar to explode or that they launch some tactical nuclear weapon?
If 100 Storm Shadows land on the Black Sea Fleet in a few days, the probability of Enerhodar exploding should be lower if they follow up with hard threats about actual capability and the next level on the threshold?
At least that’s how I interpret how the Russians have acted so far.
If we look at this from the Russian perspective, Belgorod and offensive operations in Ukraine are an existential threat to them, and if they have blown up Khakovka, then a new level has already been passed?
The only thing that would hold them back would be knowledge of how much death 500 more Storm Shadows would cause now that the entire Black Sea Fleet is burning in Sevastopol.
My two cents and maybe a bit too violent to write out in the thread so I won’t.
13:57 – Johan No.1
Video of the flooding in coastal areas.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1666050946470760449?s=46&t=Rd_rBSNZiG6v70wND25xHA
14:12 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, entertaining summary of the situation!
Interesting about Belgorod, it’s a stroke of genius but you think it will go much further and not just serve as a diversion?
I guess they will pull back when the Russians finally get their act together and seriously move troops there. But regardless, it has of course already caused quite a stir and started thoughts in the heads of many in Russia.
Exciting to see how it develops.
West of Vuhledar I guess is a test where they poke to see if the Russians will act, send troops from elsewhere for example. Possibly if they don’t, they can arrange a pincer.
Then there are actually two ways down from the tip if they were to go into the valley.
But as I said, I think it’s mostly poking the anthill.
14:14 – Johan No.1
The big battle plan went like this –
UA pushes infantry over the Dnipro who go on defense in easily defensible areas under their own artillery umbrella.
RU must do as at Davydiv Brid – bring forward reserves and try to strike the landings because they are a threat to the southern front.
They expose themselves and die, many BTGs grilled.
The other we discussed a month ago was just a whole bridgehead projecting a threat but they never transitioned into an offensive. The main offensive came from the southern front but they projected a threat from there.
14:22 – MatsExtrude
I think like you and that conclusion is probably what many will draw. The question is whether anything practical will be done about it..
14:31 – Johan No.1
Ukraine is probably taking care of the practical and then the only thing the West needs to do is decide on more long-range weapons and deliver them. Storm Shadow already exists so 800 more of those I thought?
15:01 – Johan No.1
The Russian clowns have flooded their own positions at the Dnipro as well.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1666038203642437634?s=46&t=Rd_rBSNZiG6v70wND25xHA
15:26 – Johan No.1
It’s a tough audience to get going today, a bit like when the goalkeeper scored an own goal in the first half and the son knocked over your plastic cup of beer so it spilled right into your lap.
But here we have something very interesting, testimonies from RU soldiers in Belgorod describing how “whole regiments have been wiped out” and how “UA soldiers swarmed so they had to retreat.”
As you know, I don’t believe for a second in Gregg’s “a few dozen freedom fighters.”
This is quite big and it’s growing exponentially.
https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1666069692409102339?s=46&t=Rd_rBSNZiG6v70wND25xHA
15:30 – MatsExtrude
👍
15:31 – Johan No.1
Take a look at FIRMS and see how it’s burning in Belgorod oblast in Shebekino.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d=2023-06-02..2023-06-04;l:landsat,noaa20-viirs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@37.8,50.0,8z
15:39 – MatsExtrude
Ah, I thought the delivery of the 800 was also a practical matter.
I probably should have written if it will go from thought to action.
15:57 – Johan No.1
Haha, I thought exactly the same at Vuhledar that they pull in units from the nearby area and then start the real attack where they have weakened.
For Belgorod to become calm, the Russians need to, as you say, “move troops there seriously.”
The number of regiments they need along a roughly 300-400 mile long border with UA is astronomical, they simply don’t have that.
Then UA has already taken out “several regiments” according to RU sources, so where they try to hold out they simply get beaten.
Not unless they send in all the ABC agencies will it stabilize, the army seems incapable.
At the same time, the number of volunteers on the Ukrainian side has exploded.
16:19 – Johan No.1
Ok, as I mentioned yesterday, the “Vostok Battalion” is now west of Vuhledar.
It is an LPR unit and should have been north of Donetsk.
The Russians confirm this themselves in Accentmannen
https://youtu.be/E6dZS-9n8hE
It is significant that DPR and LPR have taken over the flanks at Bakhmut, they have held Horlivka – the city of Donetsk – for some time and now there are units down at the southern front.
Has there been a larger movement of Russian units than we know of perhaps?
Don’t know but I find it interesting and now we got it confirmed.
16:25 – Johan No.1
Should say west of Vuhledar…
20:06 – Johan No.1
Maybe already posted but have to ask, is this video genuine and does it show the explosion at Khakovka I think the thread says?
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1665975190021390338?s=46&t=pjLyIlxLH-EOLxGHYRe_8A
21:29 – Johan No.1
Russian peace 😡
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1666159289746980879?s=46&t=pjLyIlxLH-EOLxGHYRe_8A
07:23 – MatsExtrude
Ah, missed your reply yesterday.
Yes, they might be able to move troops to solve the situation right at Belgorod.. But as you write, it’s just a matter of crossing the border somewhere else. If Ukraine seriously pushed in at that border, the Russians would basically have to move everything they’ve already deployed in Ukraine there.. 🙂
07:41 – Johan No.1
Probably second but RU condemns UA at the UN for blowing up the dam at Khakovka.
The word shameless just got a new meaning.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1666314661698981889?s=46&t=lQC7RxIBmvO_fQbgYdFRqw
07:43 – Johan No.1
No on that but WP writes that UA has advanced up to 10km in a day or so.
That is very significant, southern front?
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1666197378645327872?s=46&t=lQC7RxIBmvO_fQbgYdFRqw
07:44 – Johan No.1
In mined areas!
07:48 – MatsExtrude
You think they’ve hit rock bottom and can’t be more false and pathetic, and then they manage to astonish you again.
07:54 – MatsExtrude
Sounds very good!
DeepState shows a small change just southwest of Avdiivka. Maybe they have had greater successes there than the map reveals.
08:17 – Johan No.1
Germany delivers again – more Marder to UA
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1666327622521876482?s=46&t=lQC7RxIBmvO_fQbgYdFRqw
07:37 – Johan No.1
Video of the actual explosion of Khakovka, sorry if second
https://twitter.com/oplatsen/status/1665954336210337792?s=46&t=8hB4ynWiKjJEReHukPDmxQ