11:01 – Johan No.1
It should have said – “Overall, my impression is that RU has destroyed more militarily for themselves than for UA. Already yesterday there were rumors that they blew up to slow down UA.”
11:01 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, good that you bring the focus back to what is most important in the long run, that Ukraine throws out the Russians so we can end this damn war!
It’s a bit hard to let go of the disaster but I think I will stop posting more comments showing the devastation.
Hardly anyone here needs further convincing about how bad it is and how rotten Russia behaves.
PS! Your personal story did not go unnoticed yesterday, I took with me the moral that it is possible to get tired of everything, even filet mignon!
11:19 – Johan No.1
Yes, the experience as a castaway was purely traumatic, I found a game called Ultimate General Civil War and managed to win two major campaigns on legendary level, one for the Union and one for the Confederates, before it was over. 😀
I saw that you also asked the question – what do you define as still waiting as an offensive? There is a bit of a lock-in that it cannot be an offensive until several brigades with Western weapons have attacked in brigade size or similar.
Apparently, M113 or anti-tank guided missiles are not enough but it must be a combo of Leo2 and Bradley or CV90 if I understand correctly?
The 3rd independent assault brigade is one of the newly formed brigades with lighter armored vehicles but Soviet tanks and it is now fighting together with the 5th assault brigade in Bakhmut which is the same.
Now we also got information that the 80th Air Assault brigade is fighting in Bakhmut – it is one of UA’s absolute elite units and they actually have Challengers if memory serves.
Now it may very well happen but it could also be that UA gets major breakthroughs without this offensive reserve being deployed – has the offensive then NOT started according to the popular theory?
The emergency exit is of course to declare that it started when you see the first Bradley in combat 😀
But for me, the window for starting offensive operations has been open for quite some time already and now the southern front is active after Bakhmut and the diversion on the northern front. All that is missing is a crossing in some form of the Dnieper.
11:36 – MatsExtrude
Sounds pretty funny to play games and eat filet mignon but I understand it can get boring in the long run even if you reach wizard-level skill! You seem to have survived the trauma without noticeable damage anyway!
Yes, what is an offensive? I think in a way that all measures that involve working to advance are included.
Therefore, I think it actually started in April when they began to seriously knock out Russian artillery.
But okay, preliminary bombardment is not really part of an offensive but all the smaller attacks and sorties that have been carried out, already on the flanks at Bakhmut, not to mention Belgorod, are absolutely part of the offensive.
They have taken the initiative and forced Russia to react.
Then having an inner wishful dream of seeing AFU storm forward with Leos, CV 90, and all the other goodies in a massive assault that makes seismographs think it’s an earthquake is another matter..
The offensive has begun!
(If we are to have an emergency exit I think it should be CV 90 not some damn Bradley! 🙂
12:34 – Johan No.1
Exactly, UA themselves admitted that on April 10 they increased the intensity and then there was a significant uptick around April 20.
These “reconnaissance battles” along the entire front we had in April and May as well and then it calmed down.
If you think of D-day or Operation Desert Storm, it was at one front, right?
The southern front is the geographical front where “the big offensive” is supposed to come but at the same time UA has taken the initiative on other fronts and is doing great damage.
If you try a compromise solution – offensive operations on the southern front started with reconnaissance battles a few days ago but we are still waiting for the heavy elephants with Leo2, Bradley, and CV90 to be deployed.
Offensive operations on other fronts have been ongoing for quite some time now.
But then the gambit is precisely that because of a reason that Bakhmut cannot achieve but the northern front is starting to emerge as more than just an annoying fly for RU.
13:14 – Johan No.1
Maybe Klischivka has fallen?
Krasna Gora is located behind on the axis from Berkivka.
The settlement in Bakhmut is starting to look encircled 🤣🤣
Ukraine thus has a couple of its best brigades fighting at Bakhmut, the elite of the elite of elite units.
If they take Opytne, the next defensive line is Opytne – lower Zaitseve threatened.
Ukraine is smart, they will press the flanks until RU abandons the settlement in Bakhmut and then they have their hole.
After that, RU must retreat down to the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line.
16:17 – Johan No.1
It seemed to be between 6-14 regiments in the area depending on who you believe.
Previously, 15,000 RU in the area had been circulated?
If they did not get orders, they were presumably sleeping in their fortifications on the front line?
Then those in the rear and second line had a better chance of survival.
All unit maps suggest higher density of units south of Khakovka than north of the dam, except in Enerhodar where they have loaded up with some reinforcements.
Someone has presented a map showing that the entire front line for the Russians has been flooded and some videos of wading happy Russians.
Since the right bank did not flood in the same way, the Ukrainian soldiers exposed to this were presumably those on the islands?
Own goal?
16:22 – Johan No.1
B does not exist in the Russian army, right?
C probably not either because they raised the water level maximally and a total of three dam breaks have been reported. If all three were natural breaks, it would then be because they raised the water level far above safety margins and then it is equivalent to a deliberate explosion, presumably?
Why can’t A be on direct orders from Putin 😀
On topic – I think the mistake was that they expected a flooding of the islands in the delta but got a deluge.
17:23 – Johan No.1
No offensive yet according to official UA sources.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1666447708708560901?s=46&t=CBtdTyDsS8RktSGgceDw8Q
18:57 – Johan No.1
Hello thread, Kalinouski regiment speaks out
https://twitter.com/belwarriors/status/1666466530312216576?s=46&t=CBtdTyDsS8RktSGgceDw8Q
19:11 – MatsExtrude
Now it’s almost to the point where you start expecting them to do a “Kalabiken in Belgorod” into Belarus as well..
19:12 – MatsExtrude
It’s called Kalabalik and nothing else.
20:56 – Johan No.1
20 explosions in Kursk
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1666512266357886976?s=46&t=UcgARikNC5-iG1kN9WpuGw
08:23 – Johan No.1
David D has a message.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1666639615283851265?s=46&t=nQt1L9QgNAjiH_K2YGpbeQ
08:34 – MatsExtrude
Short and to the point!
08:40 – Johan No.1
Night fighting according to David D, Russian sources.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1666593240957476865?s=46&t=nQt1L9QgNAjiH_K2YGpbeQ
08:44 – Johan No.1
Five on that, keeping the style ✊
11:06 – Johan No.1
Hello thread – Tendar is reliable and he has the same thoughts as us regarding front-line pre-emptive strikes.
A battery 777 takes out a btg in defense in one morning if they skip the coffee break, we joked about that, right?
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1666724116815048704?s=46&t=nQt1L9QgNAjiH_K2YGpbeQ
10:41 – Johan No.1
In yesterday’s thread this morning, some interesting information came up posted by a couple of legends that deserve to be reviewed, it was a bit livelier and the paralysis from the Russians’ atrocities yesterday seems to have eased a bit. Yesterday, not even a personal story worked to spread some positivity, and then you have really hit rock bottom of the toolbox –
-RU has blown up two more dams, more like a serial killer than an accident.
-RU has gone to the UN and condemned UA for blowing up the dam at Khakovka – shameless just got a new meaning.
-Their units on the left bank of the Dnieper had been moved around sporadically but quite a few were up to their necks in water wondering how it could have gotten worse when they thought they had already hit bottom without food and ammunition in the constant tungsten rain – that they hadn’t counted on and expectations were already quite low before that.
-RU frontline is gone along the entire Dnieper south of Khakovka. There is nothing stopping UA from sending in their SOF now on shallow small boats to stir things up?
There were Twitter reports (unconfirmed) that RU moved back their artillery from the Dnieper line. It could be to avoid it being flooded but it could also be part of a relocation and that the blowing up of the dam was to protect the movement – too early to say and the subject is wild speculation.
Overall, my impression is that RU has destroyed more militarily for themselves than for UA. Already yesterday it started to be suggested that they blew it up to slow down UA, Rybar wrote about more activity across the river and that UA had taken the islands in the delta we already knew. So it could be to wash away UA from the islands in the delta, for example?
That it was also to prevent transport of mechanized units over the dam is also likely.
Then we have the humanitarian disaster on top of that and how Russia is perceived by the world – this does not look good at all for Putin, the preliminary investigation in The Hague will soon have to be run back and forth to the court with a wheelbarrow.
A legend without early hair loss posted this morning in yesterday’s thread that Germany will send 20 Marders to UA and Scholz was also the first to condemn the Khakovka explosion – It cannot be said enough but Germany has really risen since the turn of the year and is now taking the lead, Go Team Scholz ✊
Washington Post wrote in an article that UA has achieved breakthroughs of up to 10 km, unclear where but guessed the southern front.
10 km is significant. Previously up to 3 km had been communicated and that was also significant.
Why then – well because if you get a hole in a first defensive line at, for example, Bakhmut in a week by committing 3/20 of available resources, it is only a matter of time before you break through. The three who fought have also not taken “Russian” losses (i.e., wiped out by 95%) but they just need to be rotated out for rest, weapon maintenance, vehicle maintenance, and ammunition.
UA has for quite some time also not fought with entire brigades and actively rotated out units and replaced them with another battalion from the same brigade – I interpret this as having an established system to avoid completely wearing out the units.
Except for some brigades that have been in static defense which are probably permanently worn down.
Contributed with two fake videos of the dam explosion yesterday, a discouraging summary to say the least. The details are actually uninteresting – RU did it with the intention to flood.
However, the undersigned thought it was important to try to figure out how the dam went but it didn’t go so well in my hunt for the truth…
It is with great anticipation that one awaits a breakthrough on the southern front now, that the Vostok battalion was there MAYBE hints that more RU units have been pulled out than we think – I have no evidence at all for this, wild guess.
Let me elaborate on how I think – up at Belgorod I personally believe the intensity has been much higher than we have been led to believe. The soldier who posted talked about swarms of freedom fighters and wiped out regiments.
Take a look at the unit maps and see which UA units are now at the northern front, these are not third-rate territorial units but very competent units with a hard bite.
I know of 4-5 RU regiments that have been moved up there and nothing seems able to stop the freedom fighters. Give it another week and they will make another “raid” at a new location. RU has also sent there a group of the best they have in the army – their “SOF”.
My guess is that the freedom fighters are holding the front but there is plenty of firepower behind.
At the same time, they have had to reinforce Bakhmut heavily but there I have the impression that it is DPR and especially LPR that have taken over and that VDV is the rapid reaction force and has started to populate the Svitlodarsk – Popasna line (and up to Siversky Donets!)
A thought I have had recently is that RU understands that if they lose northern Luhansk they must defend triple the length of front against UA than their defense lines are today – so they are not keen to give up northern Luhansk.
The units pulled out for Bakhmut and the northern front were taken from various places at the southern front and Avdiivka, as well as some units from northern Luhansk.
What I am wondering is if the Russians have come to a point where they have to choose again?
Now that the war has reached the northern front, what do they abandon?
Two rumors have circulated – they leave the darkest Donbass to LPR and DPR and they are preparing to leave the area behind the southern front.
Since the chaos in Belgorod is probably very high on Putin et al’s agenda, the command of the UA war must start making decisions.
From where I stand, I actually think the area behind the southern front is up next to be sacrificed when something must be sacrificed. Previously I thought northern Luhansk but that was before we understood that Russia’s border with Ukraine is guarded by customs officers – but that also presupposes some ability for critical thinking among the Russians which is the unknown factor here.
Bakhmut becomes a tactical retreat to a rear defense line so you can’t really say they are abandoning the area, they are fighting because they are terrible and retreating to the Svitlodarsk – Popasna line.
UA also seems to be holding back their offensive reserve still, at Belgorod it is volunteer units, albeit very well-equipped ones. The availability of personal vest weapons suggests this has been planned for a long time and that the soldiers have combat experience and very good training.
At Bakhmut it is a couple of the existing brigades in the area that are fighting.
In the area west of Vuhledar in the bulge, it seems to be Soviet armor with Western anti-tank guided missiles that fought.
We have thus not yet seen the brigades with Leo2, Challenger, CV90, Bradley, and Marder in combat.
However, we have probably seen the artillery, drone weapons, and long-range firepower in full swing here – the preliminary bombardment remains astronomical.
Now that offensive operations have started on the southern front, all fronts are active. There have also been small movements in northern Luhansk. A positive-positive day then, and fun that the thread got going after yesterday; it really lifted the mood when you started scrolling through today’s thread.