2023-06-16 -

10:51

As you have understood, Budanov is a somewhat sensitive subject, it wasn’t very fun to open WhatsApp and see a message that was that video where he stares into the camera for 30 seconds without saying anything. A few days later it came out on Twitter and I feel it was a bit too spiteful, who the hell uses tax money like that just to make an overly obvious point.

At the southern front, the units have probably rotated now and there will be continued offensive operations – yesterday the intensity seems to have increased again. We learned from Accentmannen that there are 4-5 brigades fighting west of Vuhledar.

Yesterday there were also two reports of crossing the Dnieper, one up in Khakovka and then also in the town south of the Antonovsky Bridge – Oleshky. Everything is of course unconfirmed as usual.

So far the main campaign plan is being followed and they have probably been waiting for the crossing of the Dnieper which now seems to have happened.

The idea was to project a threat on the flank of the southern front but now that RU has made the biggest own goal of the war up in Khakovka it looks more like they will retake the entire Dnieper front up to the NS defensive line running through Melitopol?

We have received information that RU pulled the offensive reserves from VDV, navy and some other regiment to the southern front, left were then BARS, DPR, LPR and some other units – nothing you win the war with.

Ukraine has about a dozen brigades in the area west of the Dnieper that can either cross or reinforce another front.

RU probably pulled out the units because they have few reserves and needed them to plug holes in the southern front – they are forced to choose what to defend which has been a recurring problem for the Russian side throughout the war.

Now enough information has come in to confirm that virtually all the armored brigades are at the southern front, one remains up at Bakhmut.

They have also stolen one or a few of the capable brigades up in northern Luhansk and moved them to the southern front.
It’s a pretty clear signal where the focus is and if they intend to follow the campaign plan the “Azov thrust” is in the cards.

In the area west of Vuhledar they are not far from breaking through the main defensive line and the key to everything is how many reserves the Russians have. That is where the threat is greatest and they are probably pooling what they have there, in Polohy it is apparently becoming difficult to find Russian soldiers.

It is somewhat natural that if the Russians weaken elsewhere, UA strikes there instead – it’s not a bad plan to open a whole bunch of attack vectors at the southern front and force the Russians to weaken in order to strengthen against the biggest threats.

And if they have been forced to abandon the Dnieper front then they don’t have enough reserves.

The counterattacks with a hastily assembled task force have also failed, there have been new counterattacks in the area west of Vuhledar if I understand correctly.

If they intend to continue following the main campaign plan they keep up the pressure continuously between the city of Donetsk and Horlivka.

RU seems to have tried to carry out some kind of counterattack in that area as well to presumably relieve the southern front but UA has shaken them off.

At Bakhmut it still looks positive, UA has some of its best brigades in that area even though a couple have been moved down to the southern front evidently (didn’t think so).

A bit of a defeatist mood is starting to make the rounds in the media now – UA encountered tougher resistance than they expected and will pause the offensive.

UA made a mistake immediately, they kept quiet and RU took over the entire media scene. Pretty quickly UA realized the mistake and started posting the classic pictures of flags in front of place names to counter negative publicity. A whole nation is very nervous and letting the Russians run free with their narrative helps no one.

If they cross the Dnieper it’s hardly because they intend to stop the offensive, right?

It will be a long summer but now is the Russian low point and Ukraine must strike – I bet my last twenty-kronor bill as an underclass that the offensive will continue through the summer. Soon we will drown in Obolon when the entire Dnieper front turns blue on Deepstatemap.

The spring offensive got off to a slightly late start and when history is written we will probably find out how the developments went, I have wondered if the weather affected it and that it was a special year but there could have been other reasons too.

It is also very clear that the West will continue to deliver tanks, IFVs, ammunition, air defense, artillery and now advanced aircraft. Certainly long-range missiles as well.

At the same time Putin has now given a speech stating that the situation is tense, they don’t have as much ammunition as they need and the tanks are old – he did not project himself as a shining tsar restoring Russia as a great power but stood there whining like the best of pessimists.

And then a little feeler via Peskov (Erik14 post) that peace would be nice.

At the same time more and more leaders in the West are very clear that Ukraine should get the support to end this war as quickly as possible – and then it’s the 1991 borders that apply.

What a geopolitical atomic bomb this is, Russia has been the big threat since 1945 and when they finally decided to act and restore the tsardom they suffer the great defeat of our time. You have to look a long time to find such a spectacular fiasco.
(without in any way diminishing Ukraine’s suffering and enormous effort here, they rose up and one can only have the greatest respect for them).

There was a rumor that two TU95s were shot down yesterday, confirmed or still loose rumor?

17:58

Does this look like an attacking party that is terrified of Russian air or accurate artillery?
(rhetorical question since Leo2 is driving back and forth in an open field).

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1669731741446070273?s=46&t=YdCGrEoptEc_p1KNvpYNBQ