10:46 – Johan No.1
At the beginning of the war, RU had all capabilities, CAS, attack helicopters, artillery, reconnaissance drones and artillery radar. They also had tanks and armored vehicles almost unlimited.
They had the initiative, they had convinced Zelensky with the help of France and Germany that they would not attack and so on.
Yet Ukraine succeeded with the retreats at Kiev, Kharkiv, Izyum and Kherson.
Those who refuse to accept that the Russians are finished try to push the thesis that the smaller the area left, the better defense RU will be able to perform and that in the long run it would lead to a frozen war or something.
I must admit that RU has succeeded with a capability that probably suits them quite well – autonomous Lancet suicide drones.
Even a Russian soldier can get it in the air and then it seeks the target itself if I understand correctly and quite many of UA’s artillery losses seem to be from Lancet.
Now RU has however reached the point that their combined capability is broken. Already before it worked poorly but now it is like a rolled-up straw.
For example, they have had so much artillery radar knocked out that they can no longer do counter-battery fire with Ukraine – then the artillery is just prey which they can of course solve by constant movements but inexperienced crews move too slowly.
It also seems that staffs no longer work well and we know from before that leading near the front resulted in a large number of dead higher officers when 777 came.
They then pulled the staffs 100km behind the front and that UA now managed to disrupt radio communication before they attacked at the southern front leads directly to the units in combat not being able to call in CAS, attack helicopters or artillery when they need and get no orders – then they become Russian passive.
The fact that RU does not use its close air support is for example very strange, Krok4Jon suggested that someone in the thread previously suggested that they were only allowed to use it on order and that if no order came they did not use it. That they are short on it we have guessed so it may be true that the commanders try to conserve?
IF that is true it would then show the degree of passivity Russian units go into when they do not get a direct order to follow. They become isolated islands that do not cooperate and UA can knock them out one by one.
What they have left are the special forces, but we have long discussed that the competent units should be +50,000 and that was before UA attacked near Bakhmut in early May. This number should be enough for the entire front from northern Luhansk – Vasylivka, so there won’t be many per kilometer.
That number has now been decimated partly at Bakhmut and then down at the southern front. They have probably also moved some units up to the northern front.
If you see the film below on captured weapons, it is from the better-equipped units – indisputably, they are now further draining their last (relatively) competent reserve in the counterattacks at the southern front.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1669097155951206403?s=46&t=e8YHW4D6GkRovazdpTalfQ
Besides that, there are other offensive units but they are newly mobilized units that simply are not good enough, and against them stands the world’s best infantry.
The “combined arms warfare” Russia had at the start of the war, which did not work then and which has led to them abandoning 40% of the conquered territory already, is completely non-functional today.
For a defense to work, it must be dynamic, well prepared, manned, and active.
The fact is that RU in the offensive in 2023 has been more static than the defense they must perform today to have a chance to stop UA.
The fortifications are not well prepared in the way we are led to believe, and UA is looking for weak points.
We have reason to suspect that they do not have the numbers to man all the fortifications.
RU is also not capable of an active defense where they use the full range of their capabilities actively.
Then we have guessed that RU will be completely unable to counter breakthroughs and that their only countermeasure will be a quick retreat, as they have acted before – slipping out of threatening encirclements is something they have excelled at throughout the war, but you don’t win a war by being good at fleeing.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has since the start of the war built up an “uber for artillery” that automatically sends a request for quick death to the nearest battery.
They have entirely on their own created real-time information across the entire battlefield, both overall but also with drones during the capture of fortifications – the groups are guided in by drones and they are good at it.
Ukraine also conducts night fighting, previously in SOF but now with the maneuver brigades, and my guess is that RU almost completely lacks that capability now.
UA can fight in cohesive brigades, they manage to use the full range of capabilities.
They have proven fully capable of attacking while outnumbered and using indirect capabilities very effectively to maximize RU losses and keep their own losses down.
RU is hopeless in this defensive battle – it is all a matter of time.
They have zero capacity to launch a threatening offensive on any front section. It seemed like they planned that up in northern Luhansk because the Kadyrovites have arrived there but it apparently only turned into chaos. Then they are apparently still making some optimistic attempts around Avdiivka but it goes as it always has – terribly.
Then in January 2023 we had the number 360,000 soldiers involved in the war. They have probably replenished somewhat but the losses from January to May were sky-high.
What one must not forget is that the number includes rear units, artillery, air defense, depots, staffs, and so on, and the 50,000 that were supposed to be down in Crimea included the totals, ports, navy, airfields, and so on.
RU also does not have the numbers on their side and they obviously have no tangible reserves in Russia because then they would have struck up near Belgorod right away instead of pulling brigades from active fronts in Ukraine.
The only card they have left to play is general mobilization but the time for that was in January 2023, which was noted in the thread by someone if I remember correctly, and our guess was that a million men under arms is a bigger threat to Russia than Ukraine.
The war is therefore over but Russia seems to be good at two things – slipping out of encirclements and refusing to accept the completed fact.
Gerard Depardieu seems to be thinking of a Stig Wennerström, that came up yesterday by someone without early hair loss?
https://twitter.com/andreasbraw/status/1668866925873569794?s=46&t=nK89krcZHxrtgke7wmFoaw
Another surprise we were supposed to keep an eye out for – drones that cannot be jammed.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1668960818493284354?s=46&t=mrt_KJA86Xq_MZ78Z3CKDA
It will be a long summer but all arrows point in the right direction.
11:30 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! 👍
11:54 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, it’s not often two essays come!
I’ve also noticed that quite a bit of Ukrainian armor has reportedly been knocked out by Lancet.
Otherwise, I think it is large amounts of mines and still artillery (they are sometimes lucky) that make AFU have to take it a bit slower.
Looking at AFU’s morning report, it seems the Russians are also using air quite actively.
Regarding Russian armor and infantry soldiers, I get the feeling that they themselves will not be much of a problem.
By the way, I also think it is smart to press on, stop, and then wait for Russian suicide attacks (as a bonus you can also be lucky to observe where they advance with armor to see where it is reasonably mine-safe).
11:55 – Johan No.1
Yes, maybe the mines should have been included too 😀
12:10 – Johan No.1
Yes, according to Minusrus around 30% of helicopters and the air force have been knocked out so they have that capability.
There are about 400 aircraft inside Russia ahead of UA’s spring offensive.
The latest I read is that 30 attack helicopters have been moved forward to air bases behind the southern front.
Both aircraft and helicopters have to fly over the target, in Belgorod they dropped dumb bombs right over UA, they are very exposed then presumably and can achieve the same with artillery which is more protected?
When we heard about guided Russian JDAMS, it got a bit worrying because they delivered enormous damage but they have disappeared from discussions, why is unclear.
But yes – RU still has flying capability.
Then there has been a discussion about whether they might have the same problem there as with artillery and armor, poor condition of equipment and aircraft with technical faults crash so maybe that’s why they don’t fly much, who knows?
12:17 – MatsExtrude
I actually think they have quite a big impact despite all the mine-clearing equipment AFU has received. It takes time to clear and in the meantime, you are very exposed to artillery fire.
They have had time to lay mines and I guess they have enormous quantities.
18:06 – Johan No.1
I might be breaking the thread rules with the post below, it can be removed if so.
It is the 20 Azov soldiers who are on trial and there are four photos of them – look at the condition of these people, malnourished, pale, and traumatized 🤬🤬
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1669362527845621760?s=46&t=AMk3DRvLhF_kj2QUqXo45w
18:47 – MatsExtrude
They treat people like animals. Undignified in every way.
There was another one earlier where they had beaten a Russian opposition politician to death who was also imprisoned.
Russia has become a real shitty dictatorship…
10:39 – Johan No.1
Since the thread respects the Opsec cover and tries to post without revealing anything as it should, we are a few days behind, I get the distinct feeling, but as many have said. Johan also cleans his posts before posting even though it may not look like it and saves the original for the archive.
Apparently, RU attacked with 4 brigades in the area west of Vuhledar – the 37th and 60th brigades as well as a battalion from the 5th tank brigade. A unit from the 127th motorized rifle division as well, strength unknown.
An ambitious attack thus and it went very badly just as expected.
Apparently a lot of Russian artillery support.
Many now wondering about Russian tactics here, me too.
They haven’t exactly let Ukraine exhaust itself against the main defensive line and kept the offensive reserve behind it, instead they have driven straight under the UA artillery umbrella in offensive counterattacks when a forward front area has been liberated and crashed into Ukrainian infantry in defense with short numbers to indirect fire.
One reason for their actions is perhaps that they lose too much indirect fire in their static defensive positions that UA has already targeted for months so they rather attack with some chance to inflict damage on UA than have their brigades knocked out by indirect fire before UA spearheads have arrived.
According to Accentmannen, RU pulled units from Orihiv for this fiasco and according to below it is half empty in Polohy.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1669041994000105472?s=46&t=e8YHW4D6GkRovazdpTalfQ
The fact that the counterattack with 3 brigades and a tank battalion failed is significant for the question is whether RU can muster more than that for continued counterattacks in the area?
UA is absolutely approaching the main defensive line in its offensive west of Vuhledar and when they get through it, it is empty behind and the Azov thrust is delivered.
Then there are unusually many prisoner videos from Bakhmut and even with the opsec cover I think it is purely good news coming from there.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1668917989507313664?s=46&t=mrt_KJA86Xq_MZ78Z3CKDA
What has also slipped under most people’s radar is that the ravages in Belgorod are ongoing. I expect another major raid straight into an undefended area soon.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1669164692793597952?s=46&t=e8YHW4D6GkRovazdpTalfQ
And then at least the Russians are worried about a crossing of the Dnieper now 😀
There was a discussion yesterday where UA officially stated that UA now inflicts 5 times more losses on RU than they themselves take in offense and then that when they were in defense it was 8 times more losses. In Bakhmut we often heard a 1:9 ratio on Russian losses so it has been aired before.
There were clear pros and cons, Defmon did not believe it among others. I wrote in the thread that it was reasonable or something like that with a yellow thumbs up.
The reason I think it is in the ballpark (1:5 may be a bit much, sounds like a lot) is that UA’s capability now is so superior that indirect fire spreads death in the rear around the clock. 30 artillery pieces in one day is an astronomical number and UA has perhaps lost 2-4 or something (guessing).
We saw countless videos from Bakhmut where UA attacks in numerical inferiority, knocks out a platoon in defense and themselves lose 2-3 soldiers of which two are wounded.
The reason is of course that UA has tanks and IFVs, the drone weapon, real-time intelligence gathering, short numbers to artillery and can conduct night fighting.
I believe there is truth in these numbers but we will have to wait until after the war to get hard loss figures, so I do not draw big conclusions from that information but just air my opinion and why I think so.
What is clear, however, is that the reserves from the Dnieper front were not enough so RU had to start moving units from other front sectors at the southern front for their counteroffensive and by definition they have then weakened there instead…
Here is a report from a Reuters journalist about how the roads towards a settlement were strewn with RU soldiers and destroyed vehicles after that offensive, UA indirect fire probably smashed them?
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1669023548101328896?s=46&t=mrt_KJA86Xq_MZ78Z3CKDA
For those who didn’t sleep through history lessons and D-Day, the Germans’ losses were extreme in their attempt to stop the advance towards Germany. They took disproportionately higher losses because the Allies had air superiority and artillery superiority so all movements were exposed and all defenses they encountered were shot to pieces with indirect fire – it’s the same now I think.