2023-07-09

11:30 – Johan No.1

There is a daily lottery line that will become a framed picture on my office wall – the one where 1st Vladimir Putin is standing. That man probably has a half-life like a mayfly soon.

Then this thing about throwing someone under the bus is a bit sensitive, so I am cautious with such statements, but the Russians are as angry as bees that Turkey released the Azov commanders, Turkish soldiers stood with the Ukrainian flag, and Erdogan believed that Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO – could he have made clearer signals for Ukraine, really?

If so, it would probably be to send a lot of Turkish weapons to Ukraine. Yes, he has done that too – we learned the other day about a few hundred band howitzers 😀

I was also thinking of announcing a contest – can anyone find a Chinese statement in the last month demanding peace or frozen fronts or actively supporting Russia?

Right now Russia is under enormous pressure – they are losing the war in a fair fight and really need all the help they can get.

Ukraine is getting that help, but no one is helping Russia, and now no one even verbally supports Russia anymore. Putin is completely alone.

Remember at the beginning of the war, the red line was that if the West sent a single bullet to Ukraine, nuclear weapons would rain down on London and Paris.

Then when Leopard was on the table, the Russians said they would respond with general mobilization and a major war, that was in January.

Now that it’s cluster munitions, the comment is that it’s unfair and prolongs the war.

They have gone from threats to portraying themselves as victims – war moves fast.

If you put on a Russian fur hat for a second and look around, a very quick fix would actually be to leave Ukraine to the 1991 borders in exchange for lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets. A return to normalcy and then under the table China can help rebuild.

You give command and Putin to the West as a fully stuffed peace pipe.

Ukraine would be forced to accept that even if they want more, and for a “war-weary” West, it would be attractive.

The Russians can only offer this deal as long as they have something to negotiate – land in Ukraine.

When they are thrown back to the 1991 borders, there is zero reason for the West to negotiate and then they can just set the bar as high as they want and keep the sanctions.

Save what can be saved, but maybe that’s not in Russian DNA?

Pretty sure there are discussions ongoing with some faction in Russia – everyone wants power, and getting back the family wealth stolen through decades of hard work is a big bonus for a large-size Russian oligarch.

Certainly deep-frozen at dinners in oligarch palaces where the week’s mink fur vacation in Paris has been swapped for a trip to China and the kids go to public school in Moscow.

The alternative we are heading towards quickly here is that the country will break up, first out were all the -stans that have already shown their teeth against Putin, and number two will probably be minority areas in the Far East?

But also Belarus, Kaliningrad, and other oblasts are probably starting to look for a better life than under the world’s second-to-last colonial power here.

In Belarus, we have had videos calling for uprising, and the Russian freedom fighters in Ukraine promise new exploits in the near future.

I can’t understand Russian thinking well enough, but if they want to go all in, let them do it, Ukraine will be liberated anyway, and the only one losing from this is the country Russia.

Something that has been consistent since UA started its spring offensive on May 4 is that every Russian counterattack has failed, both those that are task forces against breakthroughs on the southern front and Bakhmut but also the diversionary attacks in northern Luhansk and between N Vuhledar – Horlivka.

Nowhere have they succeeded in stopping Ukraine anywhere in two months.

What has worked are the mine lines, but we have gone through that in detail, and it’s enough that UA breaks through in one place and reaches down to Azov, then the entire southern front is obsolete – Lex Maginot Line.

It seems to be in Staromlynivka UA is, not Staromaiorske, so they have 6 km left to break through the first line in that area, and then the southern front is obsolete, 6 km!

Regarding artillery ammunition, Iranian ammunition manufactured in 2023 has been found at the front.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1677688899777314816?s=46&t=IukK5I7uwD9NKN-qDJ04qA

According to Russian doctrine, they use the oldest first, so now they have presumably burned through the entire Iranian stockpile?

I recall that newly manufactured Russian ammunition has also been captured, so they have probably used up previous years’ stock now?

New production of ammunition must logically be able to continue, so surely they get some in, but the number of blown-up depots is astronomical.

If you remember when they blew up one of the main depots in the darkest Donbass that left a moon crater, there was no artillery support at the Bakhmut front for several months – one depot.

What has been blown up behind the southern front in the last month must have a similar effect on fire support at the southern front.

And we hear Russians whining all the time that they don’t get indirect fire support and that they used AHKP in a panic as a replacement.

Russian artillery is a central part of their doctrine, and during the early counterattacks, for example at Severodonetsk, the Russians managed to stop all counterattacks early with the help of drones and then the old classic of wiping out a square kilometer because they had enough artillery and ammunition for it.

Now they have an acute shortage of indirect fire, probably a combination of everything: ammunition shortage, barrels, worn-out platforms, artillery radar, fire controllers, and crews – UA has simply broken the back of Russian artillery.

RU has sent 2,000 reinforcements to the Bakhmut front, first of all, 2,000 is nothing and probably a weakened regiment. Then it would be interesting to know which unit and where it was taken from.

Then it signals that RU is under great pressure at the Bakhmut front; this is the 3rd-4th round of reinforcements they have sent there since early May.

Now it seems UA has at last soon taken Klischiivka, it has been a tough nut to crack, but it makes the settlement in Bakhmut untenable and must be abandoned, and then they have pulled the plug.

Then it seems RU has gone on the defensive just east of the settlement in Bakhmut; they pulled away the 200th brigade for that, so it’s not exactly a retreat to the Svitlodarsk – Popasna line, but they have neutralized a really hard-to-take defense, so much of the work is done now at the Bakhmut front.

Then I think it’s becoming quite clear that UA has pooled capability in northern Luhansk, they are releasing videos of mine clearing, and we know the Nyland Brigade is in place, so they have certainly planned during the summer offensive to break through the NS line through Svatove, and the question is whether there is anything behind it at all – have they even built an NS line through Starobilsk?

It is no coincidence that the offensive was named “the revolving door,” because first of all, you get full access to the NS supply line on the Russian side of the border, and then you can swing down east of Severodonetsk towards Luhansk.

And we know that there are no brigades ready to strike into the UA flank along the Russian border because it is empty in Russia.

In fact, after the Belgorod raids, at least I have understood how important it is to retake northern Luhansk because it triples the border with Russia within which raids can be conducted.

There are a lot of Japanese bayonet attacks on islands in the Pacific going on over this right now – UA has now gone out many times and announced that RU is taking 5 times the losses even though UA is the attacking party. There is no reason to distrust them.

If anyone now feels that they fight incompetently, such a ratio for the attacking party is legendary level.

If UA were to lose 10 brigades, they would have lost 10% of their offensive capability, but RU would have lost 50% – losses like these are naturally completely unsustainable for Russia over time.

Ukraine already had the numerical superiority before, and then RU had to pull units away to Belgorod as well, so in this “number game” RU will lose, that is indisputable.

And now captured Russians seem to ask for water first thing they do – they can probably endure quite a lot of bad conditions but if you don’t have water in 30-degree sun, it goes downhill fast, very fast.

You also see a completely different confidence in the Ukrainian leadership now – a self-assurance and certainty that they will come out of this victorious by knockout.

Macron has not relapsed for a very long time, Scholz is the best in class, the West continues to deliver ammunition and the weapons systems required, and the only thing is that the air support took too long.

Turkey is abandoning Russia and China remains completely silent.

It feels a bit like everyone is just waiting for the Russian defeat here actually. I had expected a much bigger campaign for some kind of peace this summer but it was probably the old Green Party member and Orban who couldn’t read the room and took a clear stance.

They followed the manual – to save the children there must be a ceasefire now and a pause, peace is more important than Ukraine getting back a little land.

Even the Russian psyops are going terribly here, a low point and almost disappointing how badly they are managing themselves.

14:30 – MatsExtrude

👍 As always, uplifting reading!