10:56 – Johan No.1
There was a hint about reshaping NATO into different areas (for lack of a better word) and that the countries in a geographic area should take care of it, who gets to participate and so on.
It feels like a natural step now that two countries have managed to torpedo NATO’s necessary work just because they are allied with NATO’s natural enemy. This is like a Kafka trial.
Hungary and Turkey do not contribute much and they probably would have found every reason in the world not to participate with troops in an Article 5 operation for the Baltics for example?
Then you can guess that they have let Russia reverse-engineer all the Western weapons they have including Gripen.
Then countries like Romania, Macedonia, Croatia and Albania are only an influence operation away from becoming Russia-friendly and then you get more brakes.
Different groups of NATO thus and maybe JEF becomes dominant for the defense against Russia if Ukraine joins it?
13:36 – Johan No.1
Actually, one probably shouldn’t expand HMF with this because it opens for even wider interpretation of HMF.
If everyone can get what they want by shouting the loudest, everyone will try to get what they want by shouting the loudest and HMF becomes completely unmanageable.
If it becomes illegal, it won’t stop the burnings, right, they just do them at night and then post the videos in various forums or small hit-and-runs during the day. The more charged it is, the more will probably be burned?
I mostly hope this will die out by itself because even though we have the right to act within our legislation, it is not legislated that all other countries must like us and it feels quite unnecessary to make enemies of the entire Muslim world over this.
Off topic of course and have tried to refrain but now it seems very many suddenly want to burn Qurans.
On topic, we know that Russia had as part of its subversive activities during the Cold War to stir up various groups, for example they strongly promoted neo-Nazism in West Germany and there are some suspicions that they are pulling the strings both with left and right groups today.
I don’t think it seems unreasonable that they have a finger in this since the burnings always come when NATO is up for discussion – it should be completely unrelated, right?
One can then suspect that some of the loudest critics are working for Russia’s interests.
14:35 – Johan No.1
It was not sustainable for the Russians, they went into a low point early autumn and in panic they had to mobilize 300,000 and spend the whole autumn repairing the supply chains.
At Bakhmut, artillery support disappeared for 1-2 months and CNN reported that artillery fire went down 70% for a while.
Then that Ukraine never got the weapons they needed to exploit that low point is another matter.
The big mistake of this war was that the West never delivered heavy weapons in time for the low point September 2022. Everything was constantly impossible and the West should absolutely have acted more resolutely earlier.
January 2023 changed all that and the West showered Ukraine with everything they wanted except the damn fighter jets.
14:36 – Johan No.1
Fun fact, sometime before Christmas I had a depressing period, I was waiting for promises of weapon deliveries but they never came and there was great worry.
So you can find some despondent posts from Johan No.1 if you look around that time.
January 6 the sparkling optimism was back.
14:38 – Johan No.1
Mine clearing
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1678373103007682561?s=46&t=UjcAJokNbjQv8VzUM2EvfA
14:48 – Johan No.1
13:57 – now admittedly the thread wants to lynch the bazaar sultan and then tar and feather him with or without feathers but LW has posted a sensational post that UA has fire control over all approaches to Bakhmut.
Since they have it from the heights and are the attacking party, RU will not be able to change this and it is a matter of time until VDV in the buildings in Bakhmut withdraws.
They have today basically zero protection to move above ground and snipers and fire controllers can decimate them quite hard.
I don’t know how it looks underground if they can move large distances but the access roads they must move above ground.
Probably there will be a Russian counterattack now with heavy losses and then they will retreat from the buildings in a street fight.
What a milestone, this is moving fast 😀
14:49 – Johan No.1
Everyone who did military service learned that you didn’t have to stand in the middle of the crossroads to take it, it was enough to have a clear line of fire against it preferably from a hill.
15:07 – Johan No.1
Should be fire controller and indirect fire?
16:43 – MatsExtrude
Like sweet music to my ears!
Both Ukraine’s successes and as a break from the NATO problems.👍
17:15 – Johan No.1
Have thought about that too.
It can’t be a threat to the EU because the countries around Ukraine have completely wrecked their own defense to be able to supply weapons to Ukraine.
Sometimes things are “rumored,” one was that UA would not interfere in the Wagner group’s revolution, for example.
True or not we will never know but I don’t understand why we don’t have Belgorod raids all the time.
Poland has also donated more than they have announced, all the Mig29s that they disguised as spare parts and a hell of a lot of tanks, IFVs, helicopters and much more. They probably went against instructions sometimes.
17:32 – MatsExtrude
Yes, my theory can of course be completely wrong and the reason more has been that they have not dared to move faster/more forcefully and that they are actually terrified that Putin would actually resort to nuclear weapons if Russia were threatened.
I also believe that Ukraine has been completely advised against entering Russia for that reason. Even though militarily it would give a big advantage with the chaos in Belgorod V 2.0..
17:49 – MatsExtrude
👍
17:58 – Johan No.1
Here you have something that cheers up after Erdogan the Fraud
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1678426786726649858?s=46&t=v0bmKhGI8G2go9W2j437Dw
18:12 – MatsExtrude
👍 Surely many goats are also revived and bleat a little with joy when they see that!
10:32 – Johan No.1
You get the distinct feeling that a breakthrough is being built up here, at Bakhmut RU is unfortunately building new fortifications between the buildings in Bakhmut and the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line, so they are not considering a major retreat but a fight.
I have the impression that they have withdrawn the 200th brigade from the area around Berkhivka to the east of Bakhmut, Pokrovske(?) but I could be completely wrong.
What I hope for is that the buildings in Bakhmut suddenly give way because it becomes untenable for the VDV inside and that it is empty behind, we will see.
The Russians themselves talk about the risk of retreat to Kodema, which is presumably Opytne – the lower Zaitseve line?
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1678295379748560897?s=46&t=UjcAJokNbjQv8VzUM2EvfA
Then everyone can see that the distance Bakhmut – Soledar is 10km and UA is pressing there as well now, it almost looked like another “thunder run”.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1677967795261259786
They have also sent reinforcements to Bakhmut which Erik14 guessed came from Tokmak and now we saw something about Kadyrovites in the area so maybe the Kadyrovites from Enerhodar have been sent up there – just guessing.
Back in April we considered a 1km advance to be large distances and now we have 2-2.5km quite often in a day – that means significant progress and many “hole-Russians” have been overrun.
What we undoubtedly know is that a UA brigade can manage to attack for two months because the 3rd Assault brigade has been doing so and posting videos of them smoking out Russians in holes.
They seem to rotate one battalion at a time about once a week and clearly one of the brigades that has fought hardest in the Bakhmut offensive has survived without too large losses.
That the Russians have had entire battalion units wiped out we also know – the Ossetia battalion went to zero at the southern front and I think they rotate units after two weeks and then they are probably quite battered.
Many videos where they talk about 70-80% losses if not more.
Actually, the whole winter offensive felt like Japanese bayonet attacks on atolls but now desperation really shines through beyond all doubt, they do as they always have and increase the level of violence hoping the opponent blinks first and in that process they burn out the last they have left very quickly.
UA Ammunition shortage –
This one from Kiev Independent is highly interesting because one could not help but ask why UA has not stockpiled ammunition since 2014. There have been explosions in ammunition depots in Ukraine and eastern NATO countries since 2014 and Bulgaria has openly accused Russia of being behind it.
https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/
Then every attempt to start domestic production failed, one can guess Russian subversive activity.
That the Russians have carried out open acts of war against NATO countries in Europe is significant but not as significant as that they have invaded another European country – Moldova.
The EU has really let Russia get away with it for as long as possible here and in a way one can understand that Putin thought this would go fast – UA had no ammunition and the West turned a blind eye to everything.
It is also sad that France and Hungary have sabotaged an EU initiative on ammunition but I don’t think one should read too much into this article – UA has enough for this offensive which is resourced and now they need to scrape together for a winter offensive (which will not be needed).
Then of course Putin has taken this a step further, hold my caviar – satellite images show that they are starting to prepare IS3 and T10 if anyone still doubts that RU is extremely short on armor.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1678153383771795456?s=46&t=UjcAJokNbjQv8VzUM2EvfA
Of course, there will be the World Cup of excuses just like when T62 and T54-55 appeared but the hard-to-handle truth for pro-Russians (I will start calling them vatniks from now on) is that if they had T72 and above they would have fought with them.
For those of us who have followed the war we also see a red thread – they started with T72 and some T80-T90, then tried to equip the 3rd Army corps with the best they had and started using T90 and T80 mainly against front-line depots in northern Luhansk it seemed – there Russian doctrine went a bit wrong because while they lost the worse tanks and were supposed to keep the better ones, the best crews were lost.
According to their own doctrine they should now only have T90 and Armata when UA had no tanks left.
Then suddenly the T62 “battalion” (or maybe two battalions) came to Kherson sometime during summer 2022 and we cheered.
They were supposed to be used as IKV, they only equipped the rebels with them and so on and of course they are also deadly for UA – the European Championship of excuses.
The rest of us said that if they had T90 they would have fought with T90 but it was still possible to hide behind the excuse that they were saving the best for later.
Then there were more T62s on more front sections and they were used offensively.
Then we saw the videos of T54-55 and now Oryx started recording losses in large numbers on T62.
And now we have the preparation of IS3 and T10 – they have simply reached the deepest parts of the depots and are anxiously fingering rusty WW2 tanks with sweaty foreheads.
Just like with everything else the Russians have excelled in one thing – talking up their capability and now when the cards are finally shown it is downright embarrassing.
If one may guess it is exactly as we think, valuable parts like fire control systems have been stripped from the tanks and then they probably have not run the warm air as they should so mold and decay have done their part and then the rubber is brittle after all the cold-warm cycles. In newer tanks they have more sensitive and valuable parts so they are harder to prepare. I have the impression that the “far east military command” still had the older tanks in storage and it is probably those being prepared now in the link above.
Then they have an ambitious upgrade program for T62 but the tanks that have arrived at the fronts have been pure shoddy jobs according to pictures of captured tanks.
Moreover, the time until T54-55 or T62 get technical faults is very short so if they drive them around too much they will soon stop with technical faults. IS3 and T10 are probably even shorter-lived.
Perfect then when they have to move units between different fronts in panic.
At the same time Ukraine has gotten the keys to the depots with the best materiel now and deliveries will never stop. The USA tops up lost tanks with every delivery.
Then if it gets tight Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium and whoever else can send fully equipped tanks.
While RU is bringing forward old PV guns in defense, they have really dug deep.
It has also been up for discussion for a while, but UA now has a higher number of tanks than RU, and RU has a significant number of T62 and T54-55 in that pool while UA has received Western tanks or Eastern tanks with new targeting systems including for night combat.
https://twitter.com/borgenfrey/status/1678156128096604169?s=46&t=UjcAJokNbjQv8VzUM2EvfA
In absolute numbers, UA therefore has more tanks. In quality, they are light years ahead and should completely dominate in night combat for example, but they can also shoot from longer distances and with a significantly higher probability of a hit.
Something we have seen little of in this war, however, is tank duels.
The infantry, in absolute numbers, Ukraine is significantly stronger and in ability and competence it is hard to compare. It pays off to rotate, play tight poker and focus on the care chain, definitely.
Artillery – that RU has higher numbers is irrelevant because it is hits on target that count and UA’s capability is sky-high now and the same in counter battery fire.
There is apparently an explanation for why the spring offensive started too late and according to Zelensky himself it was delays with the materiel that postponed the start of the offensive, a recent statement.
Whether it was the weather or the weapons I leave unsaid but that they started late is crystal clear since the units were deployed for a long time. The window to start offensive operations should have been earlier than May 4 and I thought the southern front started late.
A canary in the coal mine for the southern front is when they blow up Enerhodar, the purpose is not to cause a new Chernobyl but to knock out valuable infrastructure for Ukraine. Then we know that a retreat from the southern front is imminent.
It will and is a long summer as said but all arrows point in the right direction except for Putin where all arrows are red and point the wrong way.
We’ll see what amplifiers come this week, PerraG55 had an excellent discussion about increasing pressure with more Hague prosecutions and other things for example and one should definitely go deeper into confiscation of funds in Western banks.
If Russia can somehow be classified as a terrorist state, then these funds can probably be targeted using anti-terror legislation?
Personally, I think pressure on Russia should be increased now to force a bubbler.