15:56 – MatsExtrude
👍Sounds good!
16:59 – Johan No.1
Positive-Positive here.
09:49 – Johan No.1
Seems like Staromaiorske is
Recaptured.
The community is probably higher than Staromlymivka?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1684470355497189377?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A
15:33 – Johan No.1
Unfortunately, there was a lot of work today that seemed discouraging. Yesterday, a group of stern men from the Supreme Court arrived and announced that the dredger is seized – called a “shake down” down here and the client’s lawyers are activated.
Sitting in a meeting with the lawyers, down here you are nothing if you don’t have power, those lawyers were several levels above us mortals.
Lots of reasons to be happy for Ukraine – things are moving significantly around Bakhmut now and at the southern front UA is increasing the intensity.
RU has catastrophic command here, burning their last offensive reserves up in northern Luhansk while the Bakhmut front collapses.
And that was an offensive that should have come last winter, during the winter they had a chance to take the terrain up to the Oskil river.
Now they will partly fail up there and then the Bakhmut front will fall because the Bakhmut commander did not get the reinforcements he screamed for in the field. Apparently, he was dismissed for his audacity to ask for reinforcements.
It is also clear that RU units at the southern front are under great pressure and the same there, the Zaporizia commander gets no reinforcements and he knows that the last one who asked got a quarter talk with the FSB.
Too little too late has been RU’s hallmark throughout the war and now they are hopelessly reactive here.
Right now we have two hot topics to discuss – Ukrainian military successes and the bubble list has exploded.
It is with great interest one reads PerraG55 and his reasoning about what is going on internally in Russia now.
Previously it was more from Perra – “the worry has not yet reached the corridors of power” when we meant that Swan Lake in black and white is only a few days away in our positive euphoria.
Worry is very good, anything that makes Russia either turn inward or pull back its claws regarding the Ukraine war is good.
Second best is that the army has had enough.
Both are on the table as I see it and if Ukraine can increase the pressure (which they are doing now) the pressure cooker may very well explode.
Down at the southern front Erik14 has a whole five hundred to gain on the Starmoaiorske attack vector.
At the other attack vector at Melitopol UA attacked with 80 hard vehicles – that’s about two battalions or alternatively a reinforced battalion?
They have completely changed tactics here from the anthill with infantry.
It will be exciting to hear how it goes over at Robotyne going forward.
Yesterday they were really fired up because it was obvious that UA had shattered the defense in the NS line through Klishchiivka completely. A counterattack from VDV with “dozens” of vehicles was completely smashed. We missed that yesterday but Accentmannen misses nothing.
It is VDV who, supported by what they managed to scrape together, are trying to save the situation at Bakhmut.
Up at Soledar it is also VDV with support from second-tier units.
At Staromaiorske – also VDV.
The fact is that VDV fights on the front line and when they start to falter reinforcements come from second-tier units.
It is slowly running out on the Russian side and Ukraine has held back their heavy elephants.
It is infinitely pleasing that it broke through already in July because then we have two months of favorable weather left and much can happen in two months.
When Azov is reached (the Azov thrust) they turn up into the darkest Donbass.
Someone asked what the “revolving door” was yesterday – it is northern Luhansk sweeping down through that area and where the “hinge” is in Severodonetsk and they sweep clean down to the city of Luhansk.
The recaptured border is secured with territorial forces.
It felt very good today when Accentmannen confirmed that we did not run too far ahead yesterday.
In the big battle plan they actually only project a threat against Horlivka, they are not trying to capture the city.
It is the attack vector from the south that cuts the supply both to the city of Donetsk and Horlivka.
I spoke with the one who wrote the big campaign plan and he thinks we are not too far behind schedule here, admittedly a late start but it could go very fast when the southern front collapses.
He is a bit worried about Russian reinforcements but so far we have not seen any and if Bakhmut is facing a collapse it would be logical that they have already arrived, he thinks.
Northern Luhansk is if not a nothing burger then at least no danger.
We wrote a few days ago that they seemed to have found a territorial brigade to go against but it was apparently a change of units and a relatively inexperienced brigade as well so they had some luck.
Ukraine has heavy elephants around northern Luhansk but they are needed for their own offensive.
Probably they are now defending with territorials supported by maneuver brigades and they will give up some terrain.
Then at the right time they will go on the offensive themselves.
Northern Luhansk is planned to be retaken and it will be done.