12:11 – Johan No.1
Now it seems at least Russia is beginning to feel that what was supposed to be a quick smash-and-grab coup into Ukraine has capsized. Many peacemakers right now.
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1688494721415413760?s=46&t=qiW0PwqFvxIusL9HrlylBw
However, they are still completely unreasonable, they want Ukraine to capitulate.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1688530139984916480?s=46&t=C6FqklLQbaTWbsCc87xKkA
Yesterday it went so-so – first they latched onto 284,000 dead Russians which Skator clarified was a clipped video intended to mislead and before that they managed to advertise Chinese drones to Russia.
Putin has long felt he had the wind in his sails, they got away with Chechnya, Georgia and Armenia – Kazakhstan wars.
All Western leaders who showered Russia with favors perceived Putin as weak and many took his money directly for themselves so he believed he could control the West.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1688519832692490240?s=46&t=C6FqklLQbaTWbsCc87xKkA
In 2014 the world was silent and the Russian narrative ruled. I sat the first years feeling that the Ukrainian Nazis were terrible. Who doesn’t remember the union building in Odessa and the pregnant woman strangled with barbed wire.
Trump comes to power and runs his pro-Russian policy, Qanon gets going and as soon as Biden takes office Afghanistan completely collapses.
I can understand that Putin felt he would get away with Ukraine too.
I perceive the invasion as forced and I still don’t understand why they didn’t attack years earlier but historians will have to sort that out.
My best guess is that Putin intended to topple Ukraine with subversive activity and it was clear that it was not progressing in 2022?
At the start of the offensive, they had booked all the tables at the better restaurants in Kiev a week later, they had the parade uniforms packed, and the soldiers thought it was an exercise.
– They really counted on a straightforward victory, right?
Considering how things looked in the south, it’s not far-fetched to guess that they counted on bribing their way to a fake victory?
Then there is the loose rumor that the FSB did not pay out the bribes, which is highly unconfirmed.
After the initial offensive, Russia has been reactive throughout the war and consistently too little, too late.
They have adapted and tried to balance sensible warfare against terrible orders. Every time a new commander takes over, it means running across the fields again so the commander can show decisiveness to their superiors.
The winter offensive was an ambitious attempt to take Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, and no prize for guessing that China promised to step in and try to force a peace with frozen frontlines if Putin could show a victory.
The winter offensive died out, and in April RU was supposed to mobilize 400,000 volunteers – my guess is that very few actually did.
UA launched their spring offensive on May 4, 2023, and since then RU has been fully occupied with holding out.
The above was a description of the situation.
Below I try to reason about what thoughts might be going on in Russia right now, everything is speculative.
Every person with investments in this war should be very clear about what is about to happen?
If we now consider that they are a criminal clan whose purpose is to enrich themselves, their opportunities to do so are currently severely limited.
– Their violent capital is approaching zero.
– Their reputation as violent fighters is approaching zero.
– The fear of violence they have capitalized on all these years is approaching zero.
– Their channels for sending stolen funds to the West are approaching zero.
– Their luxury life in the West is approaching zero.
– Their fortunes in the West are being seized.
Translating this to a criminal clan, they are in conflict with another group, and the police and judiciary have taken notice because of this – the police strike at drug caches and dealers, and there is a coordinated campaign to seize cars, valuables, children (to social services), and the Tax Agency is scrutinizing all their companies.
Why would the criminal clan want to lose all their luxury cars, leather sofas in rental apartments, have their children taken by social services, and lose territory to another gang?
That is exactly why criminal clans rarely go to war, because then they expose themselves; they settle things amicably instead.
Russia must reasonably understand that the only bargaining chip they have left is the land they have conquered to date.
As soon as Ukraine retakes it, all sanctions, criminal charges, and everything else can remain indefinitely.
It is only now that one can trade land to get their lives back.
We have guessed that the army has been ordered not to give an inch because they are trying to talk the West around.
There is one equally desperate alternative – Putin et al. understand that if Ukraine breaks through again, it is over for them as individuals, so they do the only thing they can – demand that every meter be held.
Whatever it is, we are heading towards an absolute low point for the Russians. Most recently, there are continued reports that RU soldiers are not receiving artillery support, while Ukrainian artillerymen apparently have enough ammunition for the first time according to our esteemed Erik14.
It is indisputable that Ukraine has offensive reserves left to continue driving this offensive, and it is highly likely that RU has no further reserves.
We shall see…
I want to push Botmania’s post yesterday where he linked to a map with all the countries Wagner is present in down in Africa; many countries are now being recolonized by Russia.
Private military contractors bolster Russian influence in Africa (france24.com)
India and China agree that Ukraine’s international integrity applies. I’m still getting calls on WhatsApp right now from a friend in Altai.
ISW on Twitter: ”International talks aimed at drafting the main principles for a future settlement to the war in #Ukraine continued in #Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 6. https://t.co/USrGNocJm0 https://t.co/dJi8TwBSF0” / Xc
If China does not come out with a statement contradicting this, then that is presumably what is officially communicated, I think?
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1688790951425134592?s=46&t=CilargDUxZnZjMD02SLHbg
Following up on yesterday, exports from various EU countries to -stan are increasing sharply, some figures 😐
https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1688631557781692416?s=46&t=CilargDUxZnZjMD02SLHbg
Then regarding RU losses, Perpetua tries daily to list all losses he finds, consistently 3-5 times higher for RU. Anecdotal, of course.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1688783615394516992?s=46&t=CilargDUxZnZjMD02SLHbg
12:13 – Johan No.1
Want to bump the oracle MXT’s last post in yesterday’s thread because it is very important (like everything else he posts).
It means that they have no reserves and must choose.
“‼️Russians continue to transfer VDV unit from Kherson to Zaporizhzhia even though Ukrainians continue to make a dent into the Russian defense on the left bank of the Dnipro river (east)
Ukrainians have advanced 800 m in the area”
12:44 – Johan No.1
I sat with the same calculation as Surtrutn and came to the same conclusion that just that was more, and then you have to add all the infantry on top of that.
Thought I’d make it watertight and use Oryx,
One addition: troop transports have 3 + 6 – 9, so that item becomes significantly higher.
Also think that the artillery causes more deaths because often it is ammunition that explodes and a piece is serviced by more than two.
And then maybe not everyone dies.
13:10 – MatsExtrude
👍
Sure, there is a margin of error in Ukraine’s figures, but then I rather think (just like ERIK14) that it could be the other way around. I don’t think they fudge the numbers at a higher level. Too big a risk. If they wanted to fudge the numbers, they would have done it now when there are so many complaints that the offensive is going too slowly. If they had reported 800-1000 KIA, they could have pointed to that and said it is going exactly according to plan because what they want to achieve is to drain the Russian army.
Surely there can be some officers lower down who fudge a bit to look good, and it can probably happen that they count twice sometimes. On the other hand, there must be very many losses that cannot be confirmed either. Especially when it comes to pre-battle strikes at long range. There we know there must have been quite significant losses, and yet we have not seen it in the lottery numbers.
Then others make other estimates, which is not surprising, but however you turn and twist it, Ukraine must be the ones who have the best overview next to the Russians themselves, who of course cannot be trusted.
The question remains, of course, whether they mean dead or dead + wounded or perhaps dead + fatally wounded, but I still think everything points to them meaning dead and possibly those they are sure will never return to the front again.
Unfortunately, we may never know the truth, but I personally choose to believe the Ukrainian figures as the most reasonable estimate that can be obtained.
13:23 – MatsExtrude
👍 Damn, I say like DENGAMLE, you are in top form!!
13:27 – MatsExtrude
Yes, if that’s true it means they are starting to run short of reasonably capable units like the VDV and have to choose, but I also interpret it as the situation in Zaporizhzhia starting to become critical for them.
13:46 – Johan No.1
Nicely summarized MXT, it took me two pages to come to the same 😀
13:53 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! But then I also had your analysis to start from.. 👍
12:02 – Johan No.1
I join the debate on the losses and try to find a different angle than yesterday. Everyone probably knows where I stand on the issue.
We have four parties to consider here –
-Wagner
-UA loss figures from RU.
-Russian confirmation of their own losses.
-what the West believes regarding the number of RU dead.
In July 2023, the figure of 50,000 dead seems to be some kind of Google consensus among all major news agencies.
It has been calculated as follows –
“Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.
To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal”
By extension, those who consider this to be an accurate figure must believe that the Russians report all losses on the battlefield up through the entire chain so that it now appears in the statistics?
I don’t think they do, since they have mobile field crematories and Ukraine steps over dead decomposed bodies when they retake ground in their spring offensive, but that is my opinion.
Wagner themselves reported the following losses when they were withdrawn from the war –
“A total of 78,000 PMC Wagner fighters participated in the Ukrainian mission. Of these, 49,000 were prisoners from the camps. At the time of the capture of Bakhmut (20 May), 22,000 fighters were killed, 40,000 wounded. 25,000 [are currently] alive and healthy, plus the wounded in treatment.
25% of the total dead and a 1:2 ratio wounded – dead.
Wagner has probably constituted under 10% since all those sent to Ukraine are roughly – 100,000 rebels, 300,000 mobilized autumn 2022, 300,000 further mobilization (30,000 per month), 190,000 at the start of the war and conscript cohorts 200,000?
78,000 of 1.2 million is 6.5%
The figures above are what we have received over time and can be considered confirmed with some rounding of those sent to Ukraine?
So would Wagner have taken 50% of the total number of dead in the entire war when they are 6.5% of the total?
If you instead apply the same ratio as Wagner has on the total number of soldiers (1.2mn), you get quite close to the Ukrainian figures if it is dead that are reported.
Did Wagner suffer disproportionately higher losses?
Wagner fought from around March 2022 but they were not a large number initially and increased gradually, so most losses in the first half year cannot reasonably have been Wagner at all?
DPR and LPR were the first in all attacks from the start and according to many anecdotes, they took heavy losses.
The number of destroyed vehicles skyrocketed in the first months of the war and then decreased IFV and MBT.
For one to succeed in discrediting Ukraine’s figures, both Ukraine AND Wagner must have reported false figures, it seems when counting this far?
Then remains the Russian state, can we trust them – what have they reported in Russian losses, quite precisely 6,000.
We have previously had a long discussion about Russian losses being 1:1 (if you remember), that was when I wanted to apply 1:2 on the Ukrainian losses.
I feel that has dropped off a bit here and 1:1 does not match Wagner and it does not really match any other figures either?
Have we dropped that whole discussion?
So which figures would be closest to the truth?
-6,000 dead as claimed by the Russian state
-50,000 dead which is the number confirmed dead in the Russian administration that two sites have managed to fish out
-Ukraine’s loss figures of RU?
Question two is what really started the discussion and that is whether UA reports dead and wounded or only dead.
The meaning of the word – Likvidano
In Swedish it is about people being executed, killed, or put to death.
In English it is the same – a definite end for a person.
Can someone who knows Ukrainian in the thread comment on LIKVIDANO in Ukrainian?
Then if anyone dares, ask the Ukrainian mafia what they think about Likvidano (I think I know)?
Then if Ukraine reports wounded AND dead, how do we explain that Wagner could have taken 25% losses in DEAD but the army otherwise has not. We have shown that above.
So far it feels like we will continue to have two opinions in the thread about RU losses and there is nothing wrong with that?
For my part, I have high confidence in Ukraine for the simple reason that Russia lies magnitudes worse and the West is not on site – Ukraine has the control that no one else has.
Then I wonder like this – why did they need to mobilize 400,000 now in April or this autumn as they intend if they have only lost 250,000 total out of 1.2 million?
The link below was up yesterday in the thread and was supposed to support that Ukraine includes wounded in their figures.
Zelensky talks about DEAD, 800 just in the Bakhmut area because it was Sysrkyi’s area of responsibility.
https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2023/02/28/gotuemo-povernennya-nashih-voiniv-do-aktivnih-dij-zaradi-zvilnennya-nashoi-zemli-%E2%80%93-zvernennya-prezidenta-ukraini/
Total losses on February 24, 2023 were 970.
https://fakty.com.ua/en/ukraine/20230224-minus-970-okupantiv-ta-shhonajmenshe-37-odynycz-vazhkoyi-tehniky-vtraty-rf-za-mynulu-dobu/
So the link presented yesterday as support for UA reports being both wounded and dead supports that it is dead that are reported and referred to in Ukraine’s reporting, I think?
With some risk of miscalculations here and there.