11:44 – Johan No.1
Addition to 10:59 which was very well written is that since at least autumn 2022, the territorial brigades and absolutely the NG brigades have been counted as maneuver brigades.
The NG brigades are well equipped and even territorial have received some older eastern materiel.
Have long included them in the total.
11:57 – Johan No.1
Thoughts on this?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1689569775226171392?s=46&t=tgQFN8vhuxT__Odos9zJhQ
Ukraine goes out days after the meeting in Saudi and makes the following crystal clear.
-no peace negotiations before RU has left to the 1991 borders.
-Putin is not part of the peace negotiations.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1689569775226171392?s=46&t=tgQFN8vhuxT__Odos9zJhQ
This communication comes with a purpose and it only comes if Ukraine is sure they can win on the battlefield.
If they just hold this line, Putin will be gone quite soon.
12:31 – MatsExtrude
👍Thanks again for a good analysis!
12:35 – Johan No.1
40 countries including China and India.
What has been communicated about the meeting is that everyone respects UA’s territorial integrity.
12:50 – MatsExtrude
I would of course have held that line firmly regardless of how the war was going at the moment. It sends clear signals that you do not intend to back down.
Not only a signal to the Russians but also to the West (these are our demands, don’t even suggest anything else, and if you stop supporting us we will continue to fight to the death, if we fail, it will be on your conscience) but also internally in Ukraine (we have the right on our side and will never back down).
12:51 – Johan No.1
We can be 100% sure that the bridgehead will hold because RU has already launched its counterattacks and failed.
RU has also not sent reserves to the Dnipro front that could strike the bridgehead (because they have none…).
Today the bridgehead has fulfilled the purpose I had in mind – to project a threat in the rear of the southern front.
Fallback – if UA does not advance on the southern front, they can try at the Dnipro front instead, it has the same effect.
At Antonosky, for example, there is cover over a large area and they have already expanded significantly today.
12:56 – Johan No.1
Thank you 😀
16:49 – Johan No.1
Out of curiosity – why are they translating the blog, what interests them?
You probably should send a tailored response actually. For my part, I have seen the value of this thread as both a gathering place for current information but also as an archive and to raise the issue of the Ukraine war in a somewhat broader forum than one’s own data room in the parents’ basement. The only way to get people to contribute is if they find it more fun than doing something else and apparently discussions about booze are such a topic 😀
A friend of mine wonders if Budanov reads the thread because if so, he is seriously worried (for real) now that they have executed Russian officers in Russia. The number of jokes this friend has made about Budanov probably far exceeds the minimum level for a neck shot.
16:57 – MatsExtrude
Nothing escapes Budanov, no one escapes Budanov…💀
19:14 – Johan No.1
Here in the link you see two men, the giant in the combat t-shirt needs no further introduction – he will go down in history.
The man, the legend and the titan next to him we have always looked up to as a role model in politics, family, innovative hairstyle and a clothing style that makes virtually all real men run to the tailor.
We present to you – Taurus-Scholz aka Der Stahl-Eehl ✊
(Taurus is on the way now, it will be a party for everyone except the Russian depot workers)
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1689676350053896192?s=46&t=E1wYQw-N-gWkn4Zq-i2TXA
00:17 – Johan No.1
I stand wide-eyed looking into the landscape with the workstations, yes I am on the night shift 😀
Putin probably has a few months left, in the worst case he will be impaled like a Christmas star on some enormous wunderbaum Christmas tree in Berlin because Scholz is very violent now.
(the new whiskey got a three out of ten, what a damn homemade moonshine mixed with water that was…)
11:33 – Johan No.1
At the Dnipro front, it is becoming quite clear that Ukraine has now established a broad and deep bridgehead and has crossed the Konka river at several points.
So far, all counterattacks have failed, and a large part of the offensive reserves have been pulled back behind the Zaporizhia front. Even recently, which signals that they are starting to get stressed at the Zaporizhia front, so they choose to take a chance at the Dnipro front.
The southern front command now has a dilemma – to be able to push UA back over the Dnipro, they need to pull units from the Zaporizhia front, which they cannot.
And they are not doing that because they are moving units in the other direction towards Zaporizhia instead.
This means that the bridgehead is there to stay and will expand over time.
Today, it is thus a threat that cannot be contained behind the southern front, which the command must keep an eye on.
Does anyone believe that RU has enough units to hold the NS line through Melitopol while defending the Dnipro front – I don’t think so.
The only conclusion here can be that the Dnipro front is irretrievably lost for RU over time, assuming they do not deploy reserves they have in the rear, which I don’t think they have because they have not mobilized enough.
The other obvious thing to watch is over at Staromlynivka, UA can and will work their way down by taking dominant terrain after dominant terrain and “rolling up” down to that community.
Exactly how the main defensive line looks south of that is unclear, but it is only one line instead of three.
Then there is some movement over at Vuhledar.
I get the impression that this is a, excuse the very mild expression, “show of strength” right now. RU is really going all in everywhere.
We are not discussing UA losses, but they are naturally far too high right now, and it is tragic.
However, they have enough offensive reserves that are unused and will come out on top in this.
It is crystal clear that it is a critical situation for RU at the Dnipro front and Zaporizhia front.
It has been up for a while now, but it is a mosaic of units at the Dnipro front from all kinds of branches, and it is second-rate.
UA has established a broad bridgehead with infantry and SOF.
They have wading capacity on a large number of armored vehicles and can probably expand further if they want.
The trick with crossing the Dnipro is that you only need ONE attack vector to collapse the southern front, either the one at the Dnipro front or the one at the Zaporizhia front – both force a retreat down to Crimea.
Since they cannot stop the expanding bridgehead at the Dnipro front, the Zaporizhia front will eventually fall.
The ball is rolling ✊
Now materiel is secondary because this offensive is resourced, but it is nice to see that the Germans take killing Russians seriously and continue their deliveries of violent materiel, Go Team Scholz ✊
What is with all the doomsday articles from CSN?
They are pumping out articles, the angles are different but the message is the same – UA cannot win the war.
If Russia manages to talk the West down, I give up hope for humanity, but right now it could be one of two options.
-they want to put pressure on the administration to get them to send more weapons.
-it is a Russian influence operation to prevent the administration from sending more weapons.
The next puzzle piece in this is what Esset posted in yesterday’s thread,
“Biden will announce additional Ukraine aid requests on August 10. The Biden administration is expected to reveal its appeal for billions of dollars in extra funds intended for weapons and other forms of aid to Ukraine on Thursday, August 10, reports Politico.”
It has been a while since we reviewed the staffing on the boat and what changes need to be made, have taken this under consideration.
This Twitter user believes the deal with Wagner has collapsed.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1689467855816069120?s=46&t=tgQFN8vhuxT__Odos9zJhQ
I am surprised that Wagner is heading to the Oblasts that were most revolution-friendly actually, in Rostov they were legends.
Maybe this will become a series with a bit of luck 😀
Russian officer, aka horse’s mouth, who admits that they totally fake UA losses at the unit level and up the chain because it is simply easiest that way.
(saw it was up in today’s blog too but second is my life).
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1689451960825442304?s=46&t=tgQFN8vhuxT__Odos9zJhQ
In northern Luhansk, RU attacks north to south in an attempt to “roll up” the entire Oskil line. If you look at the map below, they are still fighting over communities quite far outside Kupiansk, and the cartographic reconnaissance of the city of Kupiansk gives the assessment that they will never take it – there are natural obstacles, waterways, forest, and so on in front of the city.
There is thus no real threat from the NS Russian offensive up there, even though it is naturally hell for the units forced to defend. These FAB500 are terrible weapons 😐
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1689392941851095042?s=46&t=tgQFN8vhuxT__Odos9zJhQ
The longer time goes, the worse you feel about this, but as has been said many times, it is a war without alternatives. Since we know how the Russian occupation power treats the occupied, the choices are (possibly) to fall in battle or to be tortured, violated, castrated, and finally murdered, which really makes the choice quite simple.
UA will have time for three more attempts to break the lines before the weather possibly stops them, so the probability is sky-high that we achieve at least the Azov pocket and the Bakhmut front. We can be completely sure that Ukraine will not stop offensive operations at all – this time there will be no rest period giving Putin the chance to strengthen.