12:43 – Johan No.1
An intense morning, storm here right now and around 9 two fishermen floated by in the water outside the project. After some happy waving and thumbs up in response to their waving it struck me that they might be in distress. Managed to get the dredger’s tugboat to leave the basin and round the stone pier (took 40 minutes…) and head in the direction of the fishermen. Got hold of a colleague with the drone who found the fishermen who were floating quite fast parallel to the stone pier but outside where the waves broke. Then I got hold of the dredger’s land staff (supervisor) who had a radio and relayed the position of the shipwrecked from the drones to the tugboat. Everything ended as it should with rescued fishermen, simply a good morning, I am satisfied 😀
In terms of 5D chess it is probably Ukraine playing it right now as they, like a python, are strangling the supply to the southern front and the Dnipro front?
They learned at Kherson that it works reasonably?
First they knocked out everything within artillery range and then within HIMARS range.
RU moved all supply 100km from the active front and a lot down to Crimea.
In the pre-battle preparation for the spring offensive and during the spring offensive they gained new capabilities with longer range, Storm Shadow, drones and they could now exhaust their Tochka U and probably some Grom 2?
They started knocking out all supply behind the southern front and then the command posts down by Azov, the higher commanders had obviously taken over all the nice beach hotels for their corps staffs and they paid the price for that.
When RU started moving their reserves first to Bakhmut and then towards the southern front they hit the transport nodes.
Now they have switched to knocking out depots down in Crimea and cutting as many bridges as they can.
Already when they moved to over 100km we discussed the greatly increased use of the vehicle fleet and today we know they have imported civilian transports like crazy from everywhere.
– it is clear the vehicle fleet is under great pressure.
The route that is not cut is the one between Rostov na Don and the southern front.
I find it endlessly sad that they can’t knock out all the depots in Rostov na Don with donated heavy equipment but they are probably running domestic drones there that we don’t know about.
Then they fight the truck convoys as much as they reasonably can.
Anyway, Russian supply and logistics behind the southern front is probably in terrible shape right now and I believe we have confirmed that their artillery has decreased very sharply.
The same should then apply to other types of ammunition and especially food and water.
There is a lot of that which should get through but doesn’t today and there is a lot of complaining about Russians in a hole on Telegram.
There is absolutely no reason to stop going forward and let the Russians recover, after this pre-battle preparation and depletion of logistics and supply they will naturally press on until it breaks, anything else is unreasonable.
Something we have seen over and over again is how the defense does not shoot its close defense and then when UA takes the trenches there are plenty. I think the one who suggested that it is because restrictions have been introduced so you can’t shoot without a written order is not far from the truth. Worst combo – soldier who never takes initiative and an order that never comes.
Signals that they are also short on close defense otherwise that restriction would never have come.
They ARE short on heavy vehicles, it’s that simple. If all fronts had at least T72 they wouldn’t have sent down T54-55.
Soldiers are not something you pull out of a hat, they must be recruited, trained, equipped and sent to the front so today they ARE also short on soldiers who are in place.
Then the difference between a soldier who can aim his personal weapon in the direction of Ukraine and four of them and a battalion’s combat two are two completely different things and the latter seems the Russian army to be almost incapable of conducting today.
What has today become a Russian defensive battle except up in northern Luhansk is by no means adequately resourced.
What they have done well, however, is the mining and we will very soon find out if they have managed to maintain the same density 10km deep or if there are gaps.
Now we ALSO KNOW that UA can operate at night with drones and clearly see the mines since they have collected heat during the day, right?
Then they should reasonably have already reconned the entire width of the minefields, right?
And if they don’t give up it is because they have considered that this we can get through, right?
If they had seen it as impossible they would have focused on some other front and they have not done that.
It is a recurring theme that you should not underestimate the Russians. The same Russians who have already left 50% of the conquered territory and are running T54-55 to the fronts.
It is never a discussion that you should not underestimate Ukraine, always the opposite that we overestimate them.
The same Ukraine that has retaken 50% of its country’s territory, that has maneuver brigades of 500,000, more tanks than at the start of the war and that has taken the initiative on all fronts except northern Luhansk.
You are grossly mistaken if you think RU can pull something out of a hat here.
What we now see is the Russian army’s last fight with the hope that they can talk the West down before it crashes which will not happen.
This war could have ended much earlier if, for example, the Belgorod raids had been allowed and they had been able to use all equipment against targets in Russia but second best is what we see now.
When we got the information about the bases that lay on the Russian side of the border from Tatarigami it was a bad day for blood pressure – they should have been knocked out already.
We will see, I see very clear strategic communication towards Russia right now and I see a slowly collapsing defense.
What comes first is hard to know – palace coup, the army refuses war or UA retakes its country.
Recurring is usually – “if Ukraine knocked out so much supply last autumn why didn’t they… then”
Last year they managed to retake Kherson and the whole Kupiansk sprint without anything else cool than HIMARS and they had really only just begun building their offensive reserve.
It was quite tragic to see how happy they were over M113 and 8 HIMARS but now, about ten months later, you have to admit they fight well with their M113s too.
This year they are playing on a completely different board and the amount of destroyed Russian equipment is an all-time high except where they have acute shortages.
RU was already at a low point when their winter offensive rolled around and died, and now they are heading towards an even lower low point which, at least for the southern front, is starting to dangerously resemble the situation in Kherson for them.
There are Easter eggs left as well, a small connection is that Taurus has bunker buster capabilities just as they approach the front line?
One can hope that more JDAM kits have been delivered too.
There is no point in wasting them on open fortification systems but if the Suvorov line is built with bunkers, Russians in bunkers will have to learn the hard way how the Afghans had it in Tora Bora.
Regarding the VDV, at least one regiment joined forces with Wagner and a very large number of officers have been fired from the top commander down to division commanders and regiment commanders. One VDV division apparently went out and communicated that if you touch our commander you die?
They are a good candidate for refusing war next after Wagner because they have a fairly strong corps spirit.
Then it is a mystery why Wagner is leaving Belarus and going down to, among other places, Rostov oblast – they were very popular there.
It would be hysterically funny if we reached the point where the army refuses war eventually.
This was fun strategic communication, 900 who are experts in amphibious assault, Crimea?
https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1689937602625839104?s=46&t=e-6foePcuDXiIQUbSnx8dQ
13:01 – MatsExtrude
👍 👍 Wish I could deliver grill chips, ranch dip, and Mariestad to you, you deserve it both for this morning’s rescue operation and an uplifting situation report!
15:02 – Johan No.1
Wow, you are well-read 😮
Exactly, at Kherson they protected the VDV and then pulled them out.
Since January 6, 2023, they have been fighting with the VDV and now that it became defense, they have used the VDV for completely fruitless counterattacks.
They should, as a branch, look for alternatives because I guess they understand they are heading towards zero?
Wagner did that because they realized what awaited them, being overrun in the UA counteroffensive.
VDV has presumably seen how Wagner got a free pass and feels enormously jealous?
15:06 – Johan No.1
I would trade all the medals for that triple combo any second now 😭
16:16 – Johan No.1
Absolutely, one should not underestimate the Russians but neither overestimate them and not believe one cannot win.
Ukraine has learned the hard way over 1.5 years what the resistance is.
We who support should not be worried or afraid of Russia, we should lift Ukraine and mock the Russians.
What UA is tired of is that everyone demands the impossible without providing the means, organizing a feast dinner for 30 SEK.
Something I severely underestimated was the minefields, I thought partly that Ukraine had total control over where the mines were, that there would be weak points, and that they had received enough mine clearance equipment.
16:50 – Johan No.1
That is the million-kronor question 😀
My thought, quite seriously, is that I believe the country will turn inward because it has done so three times already in less than 100 years when external crises became too difficult.
Don Corleones in Russia would rather continue plundering Russia than be completely overrun by the West is how I think they reason.
Many aspiring mafia bosses probably see this as an opportunity rather than a defeat, presumably?
08:21 – Johan No.1
Has the ruble broken through 100 now?
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1690243961833533440?s=46&t=_rlQrblsdLY8qPppLktimg
08:22 – Johan No.1
More sanctions for oligarchs – brilliant
https://twitter.com/billbrowder/status/1690154388915101696?s=46&t=_rlQrblsdLY8qPppLktimg
08:33 – MatsExtrude
👍
08:59 – MatsExtrude
👍 High chance it will stay there all weekend! Even if trading happens, I don’t think it will be updated until Monday.
I thought it would take a couple of weeks to get there but suddenly it went fast!
09:37 – Johan No.1
Reading through last night and this morning is almost like the day after a successful midsummer party when you crawled out to the kitchen, find a bowl of untouched dip and then the party guests start dropping in and rummaging through the cupboards and everyone is happy with yesterday.
There are many more versions of that midsummer party so fun that the thread is like the ideal one never experienced.
10:17 – MatsExtrude
👍
12:37 – Johan No.1
Great respect PerraG55 and Surtrutn, before you joined the thread PerraG55 was running this but the “Russophobia” has increasingly taken over and it is almost seen as “pro-Russian” to write something positive.
I believe everyone in the thread would prefer to see a normally functioning Russia and hopefully that will be the end of this, probably broken up into natural parts that can become sensible states like Ukraine and Georgia for example so Don Corleones in Moscow have no power over them.
A very good post PerraG55 and missed Surtrutn but if his post prompted this one of yours then it’s many pluses for that.