10:14 – Johan No.1
I believe the Russian narrative has now been crushed with the crossing of the Dnieper and successes on the southern front. Soon there will probably be movement at Bakhmut again.
They got way too many articles in Western media about the offensive being stuck and that the war could never be won, and pro-Russian debaters had a hundred angles on the theme.
I think we can declare that the influence operation is, if not defeated, at least so badly damaged that the media will no longer latch on.
Since they have no reserves, they tried to talk the West out of it, and that has failed – they are simply done for.
What remains is a large mobilization that will not come, but there will be an influence operation where they get articles in our media that the mobilization will be huge and turn the war around, and so on.
But an actual mobilization will not happen.
Why they don’t throw in the towel is a mystery to me…
10:31 – MatsExtrude
👍Everything seems to be going the right way now, interesting as Gregg among others points out, that the media suddenly turned positive.
Regarding Putin, I think he stands or falls with the war. I don’t think he would get away with faking a victory. Too many military and war-mongering pro-Russians who know how it really is. If he were to stop, all losses would have been in vain. Risk of turning those who can actually do something against him. I think Putin is more afraid of them and will have to continue the war, at least until everyone realizes it’s over. Meanwhile, he hopes for a miracle or that the West gets tired.
Those who are against the war mostly bite the bullet and stay silent, so he doesn’t have to fear them. Navalny’s extended sentence is probably a warning to show what happens.
10:38 – MatsExtrude
👍My answer to your previous post fits almost better here.. There I guess why I think they won’t give in until everyone has realized it’s over.. Before that, they probably risk upsetting too many.
10:43 – MatsExtrude
If you give up before giving everything, it will be seen as a betrayal since so many soldiers’ lives have been sacrificed in vain.. You can fool the older TV-watching generation but the military and pro-Russians will know how it really is. They are more dangerous than the passive ones who stay silent even though they want peace.
10:57 – Johan No.1
Yes, that is probably reasonable, there are probably factions within the country waiting for their turn.
11:02 – Johan No.1
Many good thoughts above about why Putin et al insist on continuing to lose the war 👍
14:21 – Johan No.1
A huge blow for the Russians – most recently they talked about 100,000 in the area behind the southern front and the Dnieper.
One thing the Russians have excelled at throughout the war is managing to slip away, so I don’t have high hopes for that.
Crimea is another matter because you can effectively cut off and on, and then the entire garrison is trapped down there.
Besides those retreating down there, there are probably 50,000 more in all branches of the military.
14:47 – Johan No.1
Probably too early but someday they will get orders to fire up all ammunition 😀
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1690697600993800192?s=46&t=yFNQLWKr1FxUfg_xpXhrWg
10:02 – Johan No.1
– Urozainhe has been recaptured.
– Robotyne will soon be recaptured.
– Ukraine’s bridgehead over the Dnipro cannot be pushed back.
RU has carried out violent counterattacks that have failed (as usual)
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1690385491198095361?s=46&t=djuH-bxGVHUyzCyZorIx9Q
I maintain that this offensive is going very well, they do have a main defensive line south of Staromlynivka to get across but the heavy lifting is probably done now – they needed to get up onto high ground and there is reason to believe the minefields were densest at the front.
One should also not underestimate the learning curve here and that over a couple of months they have learned how to get through minefields – it’s getting faster and faster.
David D, who has a wall map and units that he moves around which gives high status, tries to estimate RU losses in the battle at Urozaine –
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1690513234170707969?s=20
337th marines, 60th, 37th, 247th airborne – not combat capable.
136th, 34th and 218th tank regiments remain but they have taken losses earlier.
4th took a beating right at the start.
We know that the 5th Tank brigade took heavy losses about a month ago.
Looking at the unit map, almost all the brigades in the area have been heavily decimated in the battle for Urozaine and earlier.
– there are a couple of elite units that would be the offensive reserve now fighting in front of the main defensive line (we already knew that).
– there are too many brigades packed into a small area which suggests low numbers in the units to begin with.
There are three attack vectors on the southern front – Vasylivka, Robotyne, Staromaiorske and that is where RU has concentrated its units. Between these three points the defense is thin.
There are no identified reserves in depth or in the larger cities which is something we see up at the Bakhmut front and northern Luhansk. Severedonetsk for example and Svitlodarsk – Popasna line.
Regarding the southern front, RU has thus run out of strategic reserves and they are taking astronomical losses in their defensive fight far in front of the main defensive line.
The only thing that can “save” them is if they get large reserves that can man the defensive lines in time – my assessment is that these reserves do not exist because units have continuously been pulled from the Dnipro front and Gerasimov fires everyone who asks for reinforcements.
It is also crystal clear after David D’s review that they do not have a defense in depth – which means they will man the main defensive line with decimated units as we have also guessed.
The minefields are still unknown but the RU units available for defense have been decimated enough now that a breakthrough will come.
Ukraine can “see” the mines at night so they know today how large the minefields are and choose to continue.
At the attack vector at Robotyne the Russian defense looks weaker.
And at Vasylivka even weaker.
Ukraine is fighting with its better maneuver brigades at all three attack vectors.
Bakhmut has served its purpose as a flytrap, excellently.
The diversionary offensive up in northern Luhansk is shaken off by UA with existing units.
The only strategic reserves left are up in northern Luhansk but thinning out there opens the way for Ukraine to retake that area. We weighed some time ago that northern Luhansk is more important to defend than the area behind the southern front as the stretch of land border with Russia that is undefended would triple if the area was lost.
The “Azov thrust” (TM don’t remember…) also went under the name “the chess move” because then the war is irreversibly lost for RU.
Crimea is cut off, a huge area is abandoned and UA can redirect 20 brigades to the NE while all retreating Russians down in Crimea are cut off.
The problem for the Russians is that at all four attack vectors at the southern front and Dnipro front the risk is equally high – all mean losses for RU if ONE of them succeeds.
This is almost taboo to write but one of the worst cards anyone can have in this war is probably a newly mobilized who has been sold to Wagner or Storm Z. It’s easy to say they can choose not to fight but I think the corpse they found in a captured bunker hanging upside down with signs of torture signals that the choice is rather to die by a bullet or die by torture.
Below was written up and then our highness Erik14 posts about fighting inside Belgorod 10km from the border with Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1690471119273267200?t=4mWyoAY9A_up5FtRHhadKA&s=19
We have almost forgotten about SOF’s havoc here and all the partisans and “liberation fronts”. We will see the results from time to time with blown up factories for key materials, disabled railway switches and other exciting things.
The country Russia is today completely unable to prevent these acts of liberation.
I am greatly surprised that more – cities, oblasts and republics have not started to move here.
We had those who declared independence or whatever, including St Petersburg, we had the Belgorod raids, we had the Wagner coup, we have 3-4 liberation fronts that declared all out war, we have liberation movements in minority areas.
But… not at the intensity it should be or we just hear nothing.
A few hundred Ukrainians could for example paralyze the railway network in Russia.
If the intensity of the acts of liberation could only increase to hurricane strength it would do wonders for the Russian will to continue the special operation.
The drones against Moscow are very good – cheap signal politics seen by all and if you can get them a couple of times a week it is likely very opinion-forming?
I was sitting and thinking about what would have happened if the Tidö team had gone and lost the war this spectacularly – immediate re-election.
The inertia in Russia is of course because they have the country in an iron grip but it goes both ways because when it boils over it becomes revolution instead of re-election.
Considering we have already had the Wagner coup anything can really happen anytime here, right?
They had three revolutions before the millennium so the country has historically had big upheavals.
That is why I don’t understand why the leadership does not declare a smashing victory, that Ukraine is denazified, that the special operation is won and to save the children they will retreat to the 1991 borders but only for that reason and it is because they are incredibly generous and good.
Is it not reasonable to assume that the existing structure would survive and Don Corleones can continue plundering Russia and now Africa in a status quo within the country?
What are the thread’s thoughts on this?
What drives them to continue the war, why don’t they just declare victory and return to crime, I have enough self-awareness to understand that there are quite a few layers of the Russian onion I don’t know.
Is it so much that Putin et.al stand or fall with the war?
New electric tube LV against drones developed by RU, we went from electric tube back to electric tube when the drone weapon was developed.
https://twitter.com/ryszardjonski/status/1690382310233825280?s=46&t=djuH-bxGVHUyzCyZorIx9Q
When the West is skimping on equipment, the image below is quite sad, huge depots with all kinds of aircraft UA desperately needs.
https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1690014299635281920?s=20
There might be some economic thinking behind this, the arms manufacturers court politicians to get contracts but it’s sad that it hits the deliveries.