2023-08-12

13:23 – Johan No.1

We have written quite a bit that Ukraine is unstoppable and all that, but then concerns spread that they are not taking miles per day.
Ukraine has received very little NATO material compared to the total, so they largely fight with old Eastern armor and “dumb” artillery ammunition.

They have themselves developed a poor man’s drone weapon that is incredibly effective and has essentially replaced the role of the air force together with guided ammunition – they scout with drones and then get the hit on the target deep inside with one of the long-range weapons they have, including drones.

They have denied the Russians air superiority through air defense.

After the first test where they drove straight into minefields and were taken out by guided ammunition and suicide drones, it became clear that Russia partly still had capability at the southern front, which they had not shown at Bakhmut, and that their minefields were dizzyingly dense and deep.

There is no army in the world that could have broken through that with a breakthrough according to NATO doctrine, and most serious analysts understand that.

There is a rumor that the West demanded that Ukraine fight according to NATO doctrine, which they then tried and then gave up on – if that is true, it takes a man to go against NATO and believe in oneself. Many would have continued and then said “now we have done what we could”.

Pretty soon they started fighting like in Normandy, it feels like?

If we take a closer look at Staromaiorske and how they fight there –

The whole war has really been about taking and holding dominant terrain or getting a springboard forward from dominant terrain.

When Ukraine broadens and eliminates pockets, one always wonders why they don’t continue deeper, but they create a domino effect by giving them access to a forest belt, hill, or valley so they can get into the flank of the next settlement and work their way forward.

The Russian defense is like isolated islands that don’t learn much.
Yesterday we learned that a unit had been at the front for 10 months but had not received any training except for one month at the beginning.

Ukraine now uses the drone weapon extensively, they recon positions and conduct reconnaissance fights to draw out the defense. Over time, you can see who comes and goes.

The Russians still have their billets and depots in the houses that exist in a settlement.

Ukraine then strikes billets and depots.

They cluster the defense systems.

And then infantry groups or platoons enter, dropped off by armored vehicles that then provide support or retreat.

They are becoming very skilled at this. Their fieldcraft compared to the start of the war is eons better.
The armored vehicles move better and the fire on target is effective.
Everything is controlled with drones in real time.

A settlement or defense system is an isolated island for the Russians, it seems. They have not managed to create effective overlapping fields of fire with infantry fighting vehicles or IFVs, MBTs, without the platoon sitting there completely alone.

Ukraine’s losses in armored vehicles mostly occur when they get stuck in minefields and the Russians can calmly direct indirect fire.

Then, in exceptional cases, the defense manages to fire an RPG shot that hits unfortunately, like with that CV90.

From what I remember from previous wars, the defense always took proportionally greater losses in this type of attrition warfare, and that is what Ukraine communicates externally, 1:5 in losses in their favor.

They lose nothing by scouting and then striking static defense, and we discussed this in detail during 2022 – somewhat jokingly that a battery 777 can take out a BTG in defense in one morning if they skip the coffee break.

At the actual attack on the defense systems, the defense is already decimated and the command knows almost exactly what the defense looks like and directs the attacking force.

In the videos we have seen, the attacking platoon gets a few wounded and dozens of Russians are dead, wounded, or captured.

Daily, this adds up to the loss figures the oracle MXT posts, and the losses are very noticeable.

Many make the mistake of believing that the Russians can replace what they lose indefinitely and overlook all signs that they are short on reserves. About 1.5 – 2 months ago, they moved the offensive reserve from the Dnipro front to the southern front, and they would not have done that if they were not resource-constrained.

Ukraine’s drone groups constantly scout in front of their lines and every night there is a drone-dropped winged grenade on what they find.

We see that they take out individual soldiers every day, so they clearly have resources.

More high-value targets are taken care of by indirect fire.

They work their way forward by taking dominant terrain that gives them access to the next piece of dominant terrain.

There is no way around that they have to storm defense systems, but they are becoming legendary at it now, almost routine.

Looking at the map and following forest areas or valleys, you see that Staromlynivka is loosely held and that Staromaiorske was the difficult town to capture. The Russians had probably mined that area the most and then defended the heights that UA needed to climb.

Now we hear about JDAM and we know what indirect capabilities UA has access to, and the main line that they are soon approaching is more of the same.

If they have built bunkers, Ukraine has JDAM and soon Taurus.

If Ukraine now got cluster munitions, there is more in the USA just a flight away if needed.
Unleash the Tora-Bora arsenal over the Suvorikin line.

A static defense is a weakness since everything can be logged and taken out.

You have to conduct a dynamic defense, and RU has tried as best they can, but it is not enough. They cannot stop Ukraine anywhere.

Now one might reason that defense is precisely to abandon positions at UA losses and either slow the momentum of the attack until it stops or buy time until reserves arrive or manage to force a peace.

That is how Ukraine has fought the whole war – decimating RU and buying time.

The problem for RU is that in this defense they take 5 times greater losses than the attacking party and they do not have 5 times greater numbers, so UA will not run out of gas.

If they fight for time, it is also pointless because they have no more materiel and will not mobilize either.

Talking down the West was their last card to play, but in my opinion, that has now failed.

We have now reached the point where it must be crystal clear to the political leadership in Russia, the command of the war, and everyone with some influence in Russia that the war is irreversibly lost.

That does not prevent them from doing as they always have and running straight into the wall, but it is generally known now, that’s my guess, and then absolutely anything can happen at any time.

Perpetua makes a serious attempt to summarize what he finds in losses per day, always at least double for RU.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1690217976748761088?s=46&t=_rlQrblsdLY8qPppLktimg

14:13 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for a nice status report!👍

16:08 – Johan No.1

Thank you 👍