11:02 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks for yet another positive situation report!
Things are not going well for the Russians anywhere now!
12:41 – Johan No.1
Yes, things are moving everywhere now, and at the southern front, it’s a sharp situation.
👍 Thanks for yet another positive situation report!
Things are not going well for the Russians anywhere now!
Yes, things are moving everywhere now, and at the southern front, it’s a sharp situation.
10:49 – Johan No.1
Erik14 posted an exciting piece of information that the first captured Russian soldiers are asking for is water. There is clearly a momentum increasing on the southern front we see, both at Staromlynivka and Robotyne.
Then it is clear that RU cannot manage to break through the UA bridgehead over the Dnieper and that it is growing – a big threat directly on the flank of the entire southern front that must be dealt with.
The question is how much longer it will take before the blogger Romanov in Russia commits suicide. He goes out every day and tells the truth about the war, brave to say the least.
Russian PR for the war has totally collapsed now – “no, we are in Urozhaine, victory” – video of wildly running and screaming Russians away from Urozhaine.
“No, Kozachi is ours and the reconnaissance platoon fights like gods” – film of captured reconnaissance platoon and retreating Russians out of the settlement.
UA is winning the PR war every day right now and they release a lot of strategic communication on retreating Russians mostly on foot everywhere and burning Russian vehicles which are now being picked up by the West, which is neat.
I am becoming more and more convinced that RU top leadership has demanded that not a meter shall be sacrificed and that is what we are seeing now. Russian commanders at all levels try to follow this order as best they can and they know that dismissal is a phone call away.
According to the link below, everyone at all levels is lying right now to avoid criticism so it must be absolute chaos what is happening and that even the southern front command is getting incorrect information about the situation.
That means UA can exploit it to get further than they otherwise could.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1691055191800381442?s=46&t=4AtWDvI1FPj2bi8I_8CWHg
Pro-Russian bloggers are worried right now which is always brilliant and rightly so. They are starting to hint that the Dnieper front might be abandoned soon.
The southern front commander is well on his way to the situation where he must choose between the Dnieper front or the southern front – the longer he hesitates the better because it can also come to the point that Ukraine gets its breakthrough first.
I am sitting and looking at the unit maps and if it gets tight you can probably pull out 3-5 brigades from the city of Donetsk area but then you are down to a minimum and you would need a couple of them for Horlivka – not much in reserves there thus and many of those brigades have partly fought around Avdiivka and been decimated and then been decimated earlier and rotated back there to a relatively quiet front.
Bakhmut has prestige involved but UA is very strong in that area so RU cannot rotate anything away if they want to keep Bakhmut and be able to fall back to rear defense lines somewhat organized – they do not have those huge minefields to hide behind there.
At northern Luhansk there are probably just under 10 brigades that could be pulled out but then you have zero redundancy if Ukraine decides to enter Belgorod again and UA has about a dozen brigades against the northern front. Then you basically need to fully man the NS line through Svatove, have flank protection northwards and fortify Severedonetsk.
That is what the Russians’ strategic reserves look like according to the unit maps. The southern front is in absolute desperate need of a new fresh CAA that can fortify the main line so it is reasonable to assume that such reinforcements are not available.
What does it look like at UA –
As the blogger wrote, they rotate, I have also perceived it that way, usually having some battalion in combat and then rotating out and all the brigades we see at the active front today are not in combat. There is sufficient redundancy.
Besides that, there are about a dozen UA brigades not marked on the unit maps and then about a dozen more in various stages of training in the rear presumably, newly formed or resting.
The way UA fights also saves lives and according to UA the losses are 1:5 which suggests that UA has a lot of capacity left that is not yet exhausted.
The attacking party is supposed to take 1:3 in losses but in wars where the attacker has artillery superiority and can fight with combined arms warfare, the defenders historically take significantly higher losses and that is probably what we are seeing right now.
There are rumors that UA has moved forward a mechanized brigade for crossing the Dnieper so it may very well be that it is becoming more pressured down there now for the southern front commander.
I consider that it looks very bad for the Russians and if we do not hear something about strategic reserves soon it is over for them.
The loss of the Dnieper front creates a domino effect that topples the southern front.
Alternatively, that they reach Azov further east and topple the southern front that way.
The number of UA brigades then freed is too many for RU to handle while they gain access to enter the darkest Donbass “from below” which is poorly defended AND they project a threat against Rostov na Don so RU must send defenses there they do not have.
If the Russians then intend to hold on in northern Luhansk, they have planned that when everything else is lost, the city of Donetsk is a huge pocket and they are heading straight towards the city of Luhansk from the south.
What is under construction now will decide the whole war.
This offensive will not stop, it will continue until the war is won.
The Russians have also just lost the PR war and then they failed to talk down the West which was a bit worrying so no direct obstacles anymore.
I am absolutely convinced that Putin will not carry out the mobilization required for the simple reason that the large oligarch fears a domestic lynch mob more than a loss in Ukraine – we guessed this already in January 2023 when mobilization never came and then it was reinforced by their attempt at a voluntary mobilization of 400,000, which signaled what they needed to mobilize, and from that came very little.
Every Russian man probably knows today what the survival chance is in Ukraine.
We will see what comes out of the Chinese defense minister’s visit to Russia and Belarus. I have on my radar that China is heading into a severe recession and I am of the opinion that they will not try anything decisive in war at all, they will keep their feet on the ground because they have domestic problems to try to sort out that far exceed the value of a Russian victory in Ukraine.
We are definitely heading towards a smashing victory in this war provided that no Russian strategic reserves suddenly appear but we have not seen any such yet.
We have however seen a forest of those battalions with thousands in designation that are merged from destroyed regiments.
Here we have as close to proof as we can get that RU now occupies the main defense line with already decimated and exhausted units.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1691188313565147136?s=46&t=J5oW7hqddttZyTUdwn7GAA
I find the drone weapon exciting; when the English gave Ukraine their decimeter-long reconnaissance drones, it became clear where this is heading.
Autonomous small decimeter-long drones with a 50g directed explosive effect targeting human targets.
They are released from a larger mother drone, and 300 of them rush down towards some unit, scanning all open spaces.
A hit in a T on the body, and the explosive jet goes straight through all body armor.
Like seeker cluster munitions roughly, and probably a very deadly weapon.
Then you quickly think about countermeasures; for personal equipment, a personal barracuda camouflage blanket is added that makes one invisible.
The tank’s role is far from obsolete; being able to deliver an explosive or arrow 5 km away with direct fire is hard to beat.
However, they must start developing anti-drone weapons?
Some type of automatic weapon station with a machine gun, physical protection, cope cages, and jamming equipment.
The suicide drones will become smaller and smaller and increasingly high-explosive, with directed explosive effects and top attacks.
Defense will then likely be both physical protection, electronic countermeasures, and then drones autonomously hunting drones.
You need to have this at the company and platoon level, not some expensive EW countermeasure that gets knocked out and then leaves an entire battalion unprotected.
This branch of weapons will probably be researched very intensively in the future, both offensively and in countermeasures. Then there must be espionage so you don’t end up with your EW countermeasures while the opponent’s drones are immune.
A cheap poor man’s weapon will likely become very popular and come in countless variants.