12:18 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for the situation report! The great campaign plan is rolling on!
I’m waiting for something unexpected, maybe Belgorod or some new attack vector. I get the feeling that they probably have another ace up their sleeve that we haven’t seen yet.
Regarding the rotation, I think we have still seen many videos from those who have returned from the front and met families, etc. I believe they understand the importance of getting a few weeks of rest now and then. Of course, it still takes a toll to be out in the field for so long, but it’s probably much worse for the Russians.
The only ones we’ve heard have been allowed to come home are the prisoners who ended up with Wagner. There they seem to have kept their word and released them after 6 months. Then the Russian population probably would have preferred it the other way around… That the prisoners stayed at the front and the ordinary Russian soldier got to come home…
But I do believe, like you, that they are starting to prepare to increase the tempo.
You also can’t trust the weather to hold (there has probably already been some rain in some places).
13:45 – Johan No.1
Yes, there are absolutely some Easter eggs left.
They are almost crazy about how they completely let go of Belgorod here…
14:01 – Johan No.1
Thanks PerraG55,
I take with me – brainwashing at the highest level –
We have seen in Sweden in recent years how high school students who played hockey and happened to drift onto ISIS sites over a year became so radicalized that they went down to Syria and became the worst of murderers.
The Soviet Union and Russia have had a radicalization many magnitudes greater, partly through what you describe and then an institutionalized brutalization of society and not least the military.
And it has been going on for over 100 years.
You get a bit drained when you read stuff like that, to say the least…
10:50 – Johan No.1
Now I think all serious observers worthy of their name are starting to lean towards it being a critical situation for the Russian defense at the Zaporizhia front and the Dnipro front.
At Bakhmut, Russia is trying to carry out counterattacks against recaptured very formidable fortifications in dominant terrain, and it is going very badly.
Thus, at the Bakhmut front, it is too early to talk about a critical situation as Russia is still trying to carry out counterattacks, but Klishchiivka will never be retaken.
The number of offensive Ukrainian brigades in the area is very large, but I think everyone has understood the purpose of Bakhmut now and that everyone can be quite satisfied.
If one has not completely misunderstood this, the V flank at Staromaiorske is next to be exposed, Pryitne will probably fall like a ripe fruit, and then Novodonetske on the east side while pressing south of Staromaiorske.
There is a wide breadth to the breakthrough Ukraine is now creating in that area, and they will be able to hold the flanks as well as have artillery positions within the advance area.
I nag about this daily, but if there are no reports of long Russian vehicle columns through Mariupol very soon, it will be a breakthrough.
We now know, according to anecdotal stories from the horse’s mouth (a Russian soldier with poor dental care), that the main defense line has been fortified with second- and third-rate troops.
We also know that Ukraine is bringing additional indirect capabilities to the southern front and is 24/7 hammering the Russian hanging defense.
The fact is that Russian soldiers are currently experiencing Russian artillery doctrine of wiping out a square kilometer, and they are extremely miserable.
The defense at Staromaiorske is the strongest Russia has along the entire southern front, and it is faltering.
The area that the Russians are now well on their way to losing is 35%-40% of the remaining Russian-occupied territory, with the accompanying bonus that Crimea will immediately become untenable and that Ukraine can open a new attack vector straight into the soft parts of Donbass, which lack fortifications and are poorly defended.
It is no coincidence that it was named the “chess move” by the one who wrote the great campaign plan.
As has been discussed so infinitely many times, no one knows when Russia will turn inward. My guess has been that the Azov strike and the subsequent retreat or capitulation of Crimea would suffice.
If it does not, then the darkest Donbass remains, where one comes in from the south in undefended terrain and up in northern Luhansk.
If Russia has not mobilized anything worth mentioning this autumn, their continued defense will collapse quite quickly.
The narrative that this would take several more years is unlikely and only applies if Russia is allowed a substantial mobilization in September that is resourced and runs like a well-oiled barn.
The probability of that happening is zero.
Northern Luhansk is wrestled by going straight into Belgorod on a broad front.
The darkest Donbass is wrestled by projecting a threat against Rostov-on-Don.
The constant canary in the coal mine Rybar speaks out and reasons about an offensive against Azov in the near term.
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1691453315547312128?s=46&t=YM7Ooxy3LSo2S3fxRzJWNg
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1691453317380198401?s=46&t=YM7Ooxy3LSo2S3fxRzJWNg
Now Girkin is probably fully occupied with surviving in prison, one might guess, and he probably got a fitting end, but he left behind a certain void in negative descriptions of how badly the war is going.
I still find it hard to accept that Prigozhin lives like a well-paid prince and Girkin is imprisoned.
Then there was a rumor that someone else would take over Wagner about a week ago, so nothing is as it seems with the Russian onion.
Then I don’t know if this has been discussed with Ukraine continuing to set up new units, mechanized brigades, and airborne. I guess the bases have resources for training and that they can continue pumping out new maneuver brigades in a steady stream.
That signals that they can resource them with personal weapons, uniforms, vehicles, and above all recruits.
It may well happen that applications come in continuously from territorial and volunteer battalions, and mobilization is probably still ongoing.
Another reason why Ukraine is going for a win now is that the soldiers have had very little leave in 1.5 years and there is a risk that war fatigue will spread.
https://twitter.com/sashotodorov1/status/1691445675211243520?s=46&t=brJehpHT72zBEQQNfdMUWA
Then it is being aired from more than one direction that Ukraine should give up land for peace, so absolutely deciding now is important.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1691515708750876672?s=46&t=YM7Ooxy3LSo2S3fxRzJWNg