12:48 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for that (mostly, it’s a pity about Africa) positive post!
(You should contact WP as a contrast to their gloomy birds..)
14:45 – Johan No.1
Yep, to take them by the ear 👍
Thanks for that (mostly, it’s a pity about Africa) positive post!
(You should contact WP as a contrast to their gloomy birds..)
Yep, to take them by the ear 👍
11:38 – Johan No.1
Some absence in the thread is explained by the fact that we have had two hectic weeks where the client has come up with completely unreasonable demands on the land-reclamation plan and they have also been changed once a week for a month. One has really been ashamed of treating the contractor that way and if anyone in the thread has worked with DEME you know how quickly it can escalate to flying chairs. Now Johan No.1 summoned all his cunning and managed to reach a compromise that everyone can live with without violent letters or physical violence – quite Friday-satisfied actually 👍
Essett posted a list yesterday from Oxy with all equipment older than our ancestors (most of us…).
Dad’s Army: List Of Russian Army Equipment Deployed In Ukraine Older Than Our Parents – Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)
I had a discussion in the car with my colleague, the one I bet two crates of beer on UA or RU victory if you remember.
“RU is too big, they can’t lose”, “it’s too much humiliation, they have never lost like this”, “it’s UA that is weak, RU has countless soldiers”.
And it went on like that until we changed the subject –
“look at Iran, they tried to make a revolution last year and it didn’t work, NEVER will and definitely not in Russia”.
(my answer) – “ok good, can you explain what happened in 1979 in Iran then?”.
(colleague’s answer) – *long explanation that it was a completely different situation*
How I perceive the Russian army and how he perceives it are fundamentally different and until the war started he was mostly right in the mainstream’s eyes. Those like LW who always totally trashed Russia were probably considered a bit outliers, sour.
But now, 1.5 years later, when they have retreated from 50% of the conquered territory, when equipment from the 50s is being brought out from the warehouses and they have lost their artillery superiority and do not have air superiority, it is impossible to think that way anymore?
I’m not so dumb that I don’t understand that Russia needs to lose for the state of affairs to be accepted but I’m also quite convinced that many will fall back into “they will come in round two, bigger and more dangerous” and then continue with the same Russian threat narrative.
Russia has really managed to create a cult around itself that is hard to extinguish.
Second worst after Russia succeeding in talking the West down, which will not happen now, is the West trying to normalize relations with Russia immediately after they have lost.
The West has a unique chance to get rid of the Russian subversive activity which really is a poison here. Terror-classify all organizations or alternatively make Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism” and go after all those in the West they cooperate with using anti-terror laws.
With distinction between those who use their legally protected freedom of speech and those who get talking points from someone connected to the Russian state or their organizations or actively work on other issues for (the terror state) Russia.
With the increased surveillance opportunities from anti-terror laws, you can pretty quickly sort that out.
Not a society you really want to live in but it’s better than this subversive activity which is a poison and fuels conflicts in countries that otherwise would have managed to handle them.
I’m quite sure that RU through their Quran burnings have ignited conflicts in the country that are hard to extinguish and it has definitely worsened relations with certain countries in MENA.
In the USA they have managed once again after the ’68 movement to mobilize violent opposition that took years to get under control.
There is a difference between being a democracy and missing an open goal to get rid of something that spreads darkness in every country they grab onto – “to be tolerant you must be intolerant of the intolerant” as they say and it’s not a bad rule to follow.
When you read PerraG55’s text about how they reshaped the entire information arena in the country already in Lenin’s time you understand how deeply marinated (parts of) the Russian population are in this and how ruthless these “letter agencies” are. An entire state apparatus actively working to try to destabilize the West.
It’s the easiest thing in the world to turn a politician as long as you have the resources – which the Russians have. If some incurably honest politician stands in the way they commit suicide.
Imagine if your boss is presented with evidence that you have saved large amounts of illegal pornographic material on your work computer, that system folder you never looked in where a lot of video files have been stored and finally a video file with a name that triggered the IT department – how long do you think you would be allowed to stay?
If it turns out you get to stay after defending yourself it will still always be quiet in the lunchroom when you come in with your lunchbox, no smoke without fire.
PR-sensitive public figures can’t handle such blows, especially not after the actor leaked the whole case to the media who see a chance to sell single issues and jump on the bandwagon.
The Cold War was no fun time when the West tried to defend itself against the threat from the Soviet Union but right now it’s almost worse because we do nothing and Russia considers itself at war with the West and acts as during the Cold War.
The plundering of our technology for example has been extreme from Russia and China but you can’t get to them. The IP address in the middle of central China is like a black hole.
Now the rumor is that China can’t build a generation 5 stealth fighter because the USA has learned how to protect its information from hackers.
That Russia and China are allowed to recolonize Africa is astonishing to me – all the organizations that have taken a stand against colonization and the colonial legacy are absolutely silent.
The public opinion that should be formed is not when Wagner is murdering its way through Africa’s poor and defenseless. Does anyone believe that Russia will not try to trigger refugee flows again now that they are destabilizing sub-Saharan Africa, hands up?
These are countries that have functioned somewhat reasonably now get revolutions or rebel movements and are thrown down into the abyss – I have long felt that Africa was heading in the right direction but now the curve has turned quite fast.
Now that Ukraine has all the capabilities and can fight as it should with fewer losses relative to the Russians in the offensive you can’t help but remember Popasna, Lysychansk and Mariupol – all the areas Ukraine eventually lost.
We probably wrote then that tactical retreat sounds cool but it’s some last platoon running like crazy along a ditch to avoid being run over.
At Popasna, they were so short on maneuver brigades that they reinforced the flanks with poorly equipped territorials, the Russians figured out where they were defending and attacked them, achieving their breakthrough.
All the videos of constant artillery fire and when the air force was like hornets on the Eastern Front.
Ukraine has truly turned the whole war around, and the Russians are currently trying to learn how to spell “retreat-cake,” but my God, what a situation the shooters must have had in the areas the Russians forced their way through.
We can discuss Ukraine’s losses after the war, but as a country, they have made an enormous sacrifice, utterly incredible.
In the long run, those who think Ukraine cannot win might consider that the people who did not give up in the first year when they fought with a lack of everything and were overrun probably have zero incentive to give up now that they have the upper hand and are on the verge of winning.
The spring offensive has thus been ongoing since May 4, 2023, it continues unabated, increasing in intensity, and assuming Putin does not dare to carry out a mobilization of the magnitude required, this is heading towards its end in the future.
The only thing we really haven’t seen is a diversion up at the northern front, but I believe that is politically motivated, and we’ll just have to keep being annoyed about it.
There is a part of the thread that has become more bitter the longer the war has lasted, but I think that, with some exceptions, we have seen correct actions from the West and legendary level from Ukraine – right now, the spring offensive is going as well as it possibly could, no NATO country in the world could have fought better.
As soon as the 3rd Assault Brigade started up in Bakhmut, we declared “number game,” and that is what we are seeing play out right now.
Companies manufacturing ammunition in the West have started running at full speed, Poland ordered 500 HIMARS, 1000 K2 tanks, and so on.
If just one country places such orders, you can imagine what it looks like across the whole West if someone were to sum it all up.
Ukraine will never suffer from a lack of materiel, and they will never suffer from a lack of manpower as long as they fight the way they do now.
The Russians, on the other hand, are shooting ammunition directly from the production lines now – it’s going well, they are maxing out the credit card.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1692410289273073895?s=46&t=YQVxi_LbW9DJTt7eNrk88g
Some make the mistake of thinking the Ukraine war is a proxy war on the territory of a weak state.
It is two countries that have gone to war, and one of them will come out on top.
Behind Ukraine stands the West, which does not need to switch to a war economy. Russia, which has switched to a war economy, is on the decline and has an end date.
China will never wholeheartedly enter this war for the simple reason that they have internal difficulties that take precedence.
The Ukraine war was supposed to be a quick “smash-and-grab” for Putin and the other Don Corleones, but it has developed into their worst nightmare.
When asked if they would go all in, the thread was basically unanimous in its yes, and I also push that line since I am sensitive to group pressure.
It really doesn’t matter if Putin et al. choose to do so because the Russian army is not a person they can control; it is hundreds of thousands of hungry and thirsty soldiers with too little ammunition at all different fronts who are beginning to feel that this war is completely pointless and that they cannot hold out.
In the latest Accentmannen, he goes through the Major’s capture, and it was the VDV who handed over to the mobilized.
The problem, as the major expressed it, was that they were mobilized last autumn but had no training. This has been consistent when mobilized troops talk – they were in a rear line and trained nothing, and now they are in the front line and have no idea how to fight.
They have been in green uniforms for ten months or longer.
This suggests that after the +50,000 of the offensive reserve that I guessed well remained when the spring offensive started and which has now largely been consumed, one must assume that it is worse units with poor equipment, few armored vehicles, unmotivated and untrained who are to take over.
It is these third-rate units that are now reinforcing the main defense line at the southern front, the Dnipro front, and also those who have gone into deep defense at the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line.
How it looks between N of Vuhledar – Horlivka is unclear, mostly DPR and LPR units, and it’s hard to guess their condition, but I don’t think they are very eager for war anymore.
In northern Luhansk, there was some capability left, especially they had saved a few VDV regiments.
Northern Luhansk is tricky because if you choose to abandon that area, an undefended border into Russia suddenly becomes very long, and I have guessed that the Russian command or politics understands the magnitude of this after the Belgorod raids.
Therefore, only giving up the Dnipro front and Zaporizhzhia front remains when it gets tight.
If they were to move the 100,000 up in northern Luhansk down to the southern front, it would probably stop there, but then they leave a walkover up there.
UA is now pushing out strategic communication about night fighting.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1692192695781924954?s=46&t=sDh16NofqV-7zBci6rvzeQ
LW already posted yesterday on the blog, and a couple more videos have come in.
At the time, we had a big discussion in the thread, and it was assumed that UA would not use night fighting means for the actual breakthroughs of the mine lines because the risk of getting stuck was too great.
Then the mine lines were deeper and denser than expected.
SOF has practiced night fighting throughout the war, and enormous amounts of materiel for night fighting have been delivered, armored vehicles with thermal sights and image intensifiers in the tens of thousands.
If Ukraine is now releasing strategic information about night fighting, it could mean that they have activated a capability just in time for breaking through the mine lines?
Whole brigades mastering night fighting, for example the 82nd Air Assault, Azov, and maybe the marine brigades?
It could absolutely have been an ace they had up their sleeve to play at the right moment, we’ll see.
It’s pretty miserable to be sitting with flares and RPGs against an opponent with thermal targeting devices.
Drones with night vision have also been delivered in large quantities.
If we feel that Ukraine has begun to gain the upper hand, the advantage is total if you bring forward units that master night fighting against an opponent who largely has to rely on flares except for the T72s and above they still have as well as anti-tank missiles.
These should be priority targets that are taken out with drones before advancing in the middle of the night.
This one was exciting, autonomous drone-dropped wing grenade if I interpret it correctly?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1692234873333854551?s=46&t=xpxgZJtQZ6RA8-Xg3kvFCQ
Have noticed new names in the thread who are eager to start a Swedish political discussion, feminism, migration, or Quran burnings, and to my delight, no one is biting on the obvious bait.
When rumors turn into a hurricane, there is usually some truth behind them, and now a retreat from the front line is on the table. The thousand-kronor question now is how well the main defensive line is fortified when UA gets there. One naturally hopes that they will be able to follow the retreating screaming Russians, but as LW writes, it is not smart to just keep going until you die.
Two decisive factors – less mining and that they still have the second-rate troops. Within a month, we will have the answer.
Now maybe it is the absence of abuse in the meeting room that has made me optimistic, but I feel very positive about how the Ukraine war is developing right now – they have been able to hold back their absolute elite units longer than the Russians managed – the Russians have exhausted theirs in recent months.
So mobilized small-mass Russian troops now meet paratroopers, marine infantry, SOF, reconnaissance, and trimmed mechanics all with night combat capability.
It can only end one way, we will have to start seeing Russian soldiers more as prey than a threat going forward.