11:59 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for the situation report! Ukraine grinds on and everything is going as it should.
I would like to see AFU poke a little in the anthill at Dorozhnianka (above Polohy). Looks sparsely defended. Now the Russians have surely mined like crazy and further down they have double defensive lines but I think it would stress them considerably and force them to thin out the defense even more. Doesn’t have to go all in, a proper pinprick might be enough and then see how it goes.
It’s sad that those who decide in the West are so afraid of escalation that, as you write, they tie Ukraine’s hands. Russian red lines are really crosswalks that should be crossed as quickly as possible.
12:36 – Johan No.1
It was about 130,000 who never got out of the starting blocks in the winter offensive which now became 100,000 – they have withdrawn units.
Same with artillery, mbt and ifv – fewer.
Then they started attacking up there and got nowhere and now they have withdrawn virtually the entire VDV from northern Luhansk, in the Kreminna forests there was a lot of VDV fighting.
If the reporter had checked the unit maps he would have seen that Ukraine has about thirty brigades north of the Siversky Donets river including a tank brigade, lots of mech and a couple of airborne as well as a bunch of SOF.
The condition of the Russian units up there can be considered fairly good even after SOF havoc during the winter so one can assume that the majority of the units on the maps are reasonably intact.
12:44 – Johan No.1
Everything is going as it should ✊
Thank you.
13:09 – Johan No.1
The first choice is the southern front or something else – considering that the southern front has not received reserves it is possible that it will fall.
You can sacrifice Bakhmut or northern Luhansk to save the southern front.
After the Belgorod raids we thought that they realized what an undefended border was and would try to hold northern Luhansk.
All options are really equally bad for RU.
Then we have Donbass which is now defended by LPR and DPR units and I think RU has withdrawn all their units from there that they can manage.
11:17 – Johan No.1
The cracks are many in the Russian wall right now, images of Chinese ammunition, only about 600 missiles left, ammunition manufactured in 2023 is being used, we believe we have seen a T10 on its way to the front, there are rumors of horse transports.
Take a look at this museum piece that UA has captured, in the worst possible condition as well.
https://twitter.com/alexraptor94/status/1696404376116514878?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
It’s quite clear that the stockpiles are starting to run empty, isn’t it?
At the Dnieper there is a thin picket line of RU composite units with thousands of designations and a further crossing of the Dnieper is likely. Some genius realized yesterday that above Khakovka when the reservoir was emptied, the small riverbed that remains is in places up to the Ukrainian side.
The bridgehead further south is probably not the battle yet and the Russians suffered astronomical losses in their attempts to push UA back across the river.
The threat on the southern front’s flank is very tangible and the Russians have not managed to restore order in that area, the southern front commander must constantly keep an eye on the Dnieper front.
At Robotyne, RU has actually reinforced the main defense line with its best units but at the expense of other fronts. At northern Luhansk they no longer have a competent offensive reserve.
At the Dnipro front they have weakened and I have the impression that something has disappeared from the Vuhledar area.
ISW has a discussion about how the VDV has been decimated. If you remember the thread’s discussions about the offensive reserve and what they had left in autumn 2022.
They saved the VDV at Kherson.
Then they started using their offensive reserve in the winter offensive and at the start of the spring offensive on May 4, 2023, it was estimated that a bit over 50,000 of the (relatively) capable offensive reserve remained.
After that, RU’s strategy was to conduct counterattacks, not a meter backward, and they have used the Marine infantry, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance and VDV for that.
Now they are reaching a point where this valuable resource is gone and it is a very important milestone in the “number game” they have achieved.
Those who now have to face UA’s night-fighting SOF are mobilized with months of training without artillery support, no image intensifier and little ammunition.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1696350666099200442?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1696367730218213655?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
If not too long from now, Lex the French should kick in. If it doesn’t, it is probably because everything is politically motivated, not a meter backward.
The idea was probably to abandon the entire front line in order to increase the density of units further back and the same with the Dnieper front but that does not seem to be happening.
Instead, UA can continue with their wedges straight through the Suvorikin line which I find a bit strange.
Then we can hope that it is true that Taurus is on the way and a new batch of Storm Shadows, they probably ran out of them because the spectacular explosions subsided.
It makes you almost tearful when you think of all the materiel the West has gathering dust and how stingy they are with it.
Spain will never need to defend itself with tanks or artillery – send everything.
Presumably, they have ongoing training programs on all vehicle types delivered and can immediately send reinforcements to units?
Now we know from Zelensky that he has been explained that if they attack into Russia, Western support will cease, that was probably the guess why the incredibly successful Belgorod raids stopped, the thread was right in its assumptions again.
Then of course someone has leaked to Putin because he does not have even half a defense of the land border.
So endlessly terrible because there they could have tied up a dozen RU brigades or more.
The fact is that Russia does not have a border defense because no one even fools them that it is needed. Ukraine fights with one arm tied behind its back (and wins!).
What does cause tensions, however, are the constant drone attacks on Moscow. They cause little material damage but with the position Russia has taken, they cause great loss of confidence for the Don Corleones.
What is also exciting and which PerraG55 was early with is that it is partisan activity in Russia that is responsible for a good part of the drone attacks. Completely unable to maintain order within the country thus which is very good.
There are quite a few drones flying around Moscow these days…
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1696386581437755594?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
According to this Twitter god, WSJ is blatantly lying about ATACMS, no one is surprised, what Western media is doing now should really be reconsidered – at the same time as the UA offensive advances, doomsday articles about the impending Ukrainian defeat are being thrown out, most recently the BBC joined in.
I find it very hard to accept that our largest media platforms that shape opinion manage to become a tool for Russian influence operations.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1696335217512865818?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
As usual, Perpetua gives an anecdotal compilation that RU has higher losses in defense.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1696389034593964243?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
I get the impression that there is full panic up around Robotyne right now?
UA has advanced everywhere in a short time and Russian milbloggers contradict each other all the time.
Below is a description of very unpleasant artillery rain that a Russian in his trench is exposed to.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1696391022173921295?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
If one were to guess, UA has fully exploited the breakthrough at Robotyne and RU is low on reserves and can no longer counter?
The observant have also noted that Erik14 posted about renewed advance at the Staromaiorske attack vector.
Then we have the Dnieper front and the attack vector at Vasylivka left to illuminate again – in a galaxy near you very soon.
The observant have also noted a certain shift up in northern Luhansk and that may very well be because RU has withdrawn the offensive reserves from there. UA has experienced maneuver brigades at that front and will not miss their chance to exploit the weak point.
I have actually believed this for some time now but we seem to be approaching the point where RU must choose what they want to defend (again…).
If they withdraw more units from northern Luhansk, northern Luhansk goes with all that it entails – a new fierce undefended border straight into Russia’s soft parts and UA reaches all supply lines.
If they do not reinforce the southern front, it will fall and Crimea fairly soon. This could happen in stages and that they abandon the Dnieper front first.
Up at Bakhmut they cannot withdraw anything because then UA breaks through again and can project a threat against Horlivka from the north, move in the direction of Alchevsk and go down into the darkest Donbass from the north depending on how far they get.
Difficult choices for the special operation command and right now it actually seems like they choose to try to hold everything with what they have instead of doing like Suvorikin and prioritizing.
Everyone surely knows what happened with Suvorikin and Prigozin, an army in decline this is.
And then the breakthrough becomes total instead when RU is severely short on reserves and cannot plug the holes – Putin is truly the free world’s foremost defender as he shuffles around in Altai, gorging on caviar and in energetic outbursts demands that not a meter shall be sacrificed.
The similarities with the one who tried this last time are striking except maybe for the caviar.
Ukraine’s best units with night combat capability and short numbers to the whole palette of indirect capabilities shall untrained, hungry and war-weary mobilized units try to resist, we are back to Tora Bora and the high-tech hunt for the Taliban.
Directly embarrassing to be a Russian general right now.
Putin has no magic to pull out of the hat here – until he has mobilized and trained the mobilized he has a tired, worn-out and unmotivated army that is retreating everywhere right now.
Ukraine can increase the intensity even further than this and this was enough to make progress – it looks excellent, positive-positive.