15:16 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks for the situation report!
By the way, there were some rumors that the administration had begun leaving Tokmak. When we have seen this before, it has only been a matter of time before the officers and soldiers calmly and quietly started a backward offensive. If those rumors are true, it is probably not far off.
21:12 – Johan No.1
Yep, the administration is leaving and the soldiers are looting – we have learned that this means they start advancing backwards just as you write 😀
14:36 – Johan No.1
If you remember amplifiers, the thing that was supposed to strengthen the offensive, it was partly the West’s communication, which is currently dying articles throughout Western media, but then there were UA liberation feats on Russian soil.
With this drone swarm against the airfields and daily drone attacks in Moscow, they have excelled again. The liberation feats are also sharply increasing in the oblasts bordering Ukraine.
Since the dictatorship has taken the position it has taken, this is devastating for their credibility. They cannot defend their own territory.
Of course, UA in cooperation with liberation patrols (SOF), partisans, and “liberation fronts” (there are about 6 or so?) should increase this until it breaks, which it will.
Every oblast, province, or republic considering autonomy or full freedom from colonialism is watching wide-eyed at what is happening and understands that the dictatorship’s control of Russia is severely diminished.
It is good that Ukraine runs its amplifiers every week now that the West cannot avoid being talked down by Russia. It breaks the spell.
The landing on Crimea, TU22s knocked out, airports in Moscow closed, drones over Moscow, new raids into Kursk and Belgorod (though smaller and not a PR campaign), and now this drone swarm.
Soon we will see new spectacular missile attacks when the next batch is delivered – last time they worked their way through Crimea very harshly.
UA seems to be pushing violently towards Verbove and is inside the built-up area?
They are heading straight up into dominant terrain and can bypass many waterways that are further west and probably defended.
They also avoid the wagon fortress Ocheretuvate, and if they can retake Romanivske and Andriivske, they will have a foothold in dominant terrain with nothing behind them.
Of course, the Russians can pull units from another front section and secure the terrain, but then UA strikes there instead – the critical mass has long been in UA’s favor.
It is the Russians’ last elite units that are now trying to hold out around Robotyne.
I took a look at northern Luhansk and I think RU has weakened quite a bit up there.
At the Kreminna forests, for example, all VDV have disappeared, and the VDV reserve as well.
It is unclear to me what losses they have taken, but certainly a dozen brigades are in worse shape, and then they have a fairly large pool of units that have not yet tried to fight Ukraine and have not died yet.
I understand that UA has started advancing in that area, very positive.
So we have now reached the point where UA has the initiative on all fronts.
My guess from the information we have received is that UA can increase the intensity further during September, and we keep our fingers crossed that the ground holds as long as possible this year.
The Azov thrust is well on its way to being delivered, and we still hear nothing about mobilization and nothing about large columns through Mariupol.
Like soothing elevator music, all the reports right now, everything is going in the right direction.
It must be very sweaty at the southern front command when they see their defense collapse, and the only right thing would have been an organized retreat from the front line along the entire front to free up units to strengthen the next lines, but that does not happen because Putin does not want any newspaper headlines writing about a Russian retreat.
Higher commanders for CAA and AC understand very well where this is heading.
If one may guess, plans have been worked on to get down to Crimea before the front collapses, and it will become a very beautiful Kuwait highway 3.0 of the whole thing (2.0 we have already had).